Abnormal Returns and Active Portfolio Management

It is appropriate advice for retail investors to tilt their portfolio away from the market portfolio towards factors that have been identified in the academic literature to earn positive abnormal returns relative to the Capital Asset Pricing Model.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Campbell
John Campbell
Harvard
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
I agree that certain tilts are advantageous. Most importantly, any investor who would otherwise hold cash and the index is better off holding less cash and more low-beta stocks to exploit the low-beta anomaly.
Cochrane
John Cochrane
Hoover Institution Stanford
Disagree
10
Bio/Vote History
CAPM assumes one-period mean-variance objective, no outside income, and wealth is the market portfolio. So yes, many investors should deviate. But it's a zero sum game. Market=average investor portfolio. Not obvious that typical investor should long vs short anomalies.
Cornelli
Francesca Cornelli
Northwestern Kellogg Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Diamond
Douglas Diamond
Chicago Booth
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Du
Wenxin Du
HBS
Strongly Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
I agree with the idea, but with many caveats. CAPM is a static model-a straw man. And, far from all "factors that have been identified in the academic literature" to earn positive returns relative to CAPM are effective tilts. But some probably are effective.
-see background information here
Eberly
Janice Eberly
Northwestern Kellogg
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
Fees could overcome any abnormal return expected by retail investors. In addition, the strategy may have liquidity or other factors not transparent in the research literature that add risk or complexity for retail investors.
Fama
Eugene Fama
Chicago Booth
Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Gabaix
Xavier Gabaix
Harvard
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Goldstein
Itay Goldstein
UPenn Wharton
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Graham
John Graham
Duke Fuqua
Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Harvey
Campbell R. Harvey
Duke Fuqua
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Any investor can earn extra expected returns by tilting towards additional sources of risk. The challenge is identifying these sources of risk. Further, where will the retail investor seek reliable “advice”? So, for most retail investors, it is best to go with index funds.
-see background information here
Hong
Harrison Hong
Columbia Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Jiang
Wei Jiang
Emory Goizueta
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Depends on many factors, including fees.
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
which part of the factor zoo? so many factors, so little time...
Koijen
Ralph Koijen
Chicago Booth
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Someone needs to be on the other side though. Hence, it depends on the beliefs, sentiment, risk exposures, and preferences of retail investors to determine their optimal portfolio. There is also implementation risk if ETFs, say, dont closely follow the factors in the literature.
Kuhnen
Camelia Kuhnen
UNC Kenan-Flagler
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
Lo
Andrew Lo
MIT Sloan Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Lowry
Michelle Lowry
Drexel LeBow
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Ludvigson
Sydney Ludvigson
NYU
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Maggiori
Matteo Maggiori
Stanford GSB
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Especially if the "market portfolio" is in practice proxied by a broad equity index
Matvos
Gregor Matvos
Northwestern Kellogg
Uncertain
9
Bio/Vote History
There is a good chance that such advice will steer retail investors away from passive investments in low fee and well diversified index funds. In that case retail may be worse off even if there are potential gains from the portfolio tilt.
Moskowitz
Tobias Moskowitz
Yale School of Management
Uncertain
10
Bio/Vote History
This is an ill-posed question. Not everyone can tilt away from the market portfolio by definition. So, it has to be the case that for some investors it makes sense and for others it does not. Whether it makes sense depends on risk appetite, liquidity needs, etc. Cannot answer
Nagel
Stefan Nagel
Chicago Booth
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
But only through low-cost investment vehicles
Parker
Jonathan Parker
MIT Sloan
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
The theory is clear. Investors should hold portfolios for which the C-CAPM holds with respect to their standard of living or marginal utility. If the factors help do this great. If not, then ignore them.
Parlour
Christine Parlour
Berkeley Haas Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Philippon
Thomas Philippon
NYU Stern
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Puri
Manju Puri
Duke Fuqua
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Roberts
Michael R. Roberts
UPenn Wharton
Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Sapienza
Paola Sapienza
Northwestern Kellogg Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Seru
Amit Seru
Stanford GSB
Strongly Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Stambaugh
Robert Stambaugh
UPenn Wharton
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
It's probably appropriate only if most investors don't take that advice.
Starks
Laura Starks
UT Austin McCombs Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Stein
Jeremy Stein
Harvard
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Stroebel
Johannes Stroebel
NYU Stern Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Titman
Sheridan Titman
UT Austin McCombs
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Van Nieuwerburgh
Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh
Columbia Business School
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Retail investors may want to earn higher return, even if that involves exposure to factor risk. Of course, even better if the higher return does not reflect extra risk
Whited
Toni Whited
UMich Ross School
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History