It is appropriate advice for retail investors to tilt their portfolio away from the market portfolio towards factors that have been identified in the academic literature to earn positive abnormal returns relative to the Capital Asset Pricing Model.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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John Campbell |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
I agree that certain tilts are advantageous. Most importantly, any investor who would otherwise hold cash and the index is better off holding less cash and more low-beta stocks to exploit the low-beta anomaly.
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John Cochrane |
Hoover Institution Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
CAPM assumes one-period mean-variance objective, no outside income, and wealth is the market portfolio. So yes, many investors should deviate. But it's a zero sum game. Market=average investor portfolio. Not obvious that typical investor should long vs short anomalies.
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Francesca Cornelli |
Northwestern Kellogg | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Douglas Diamond |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Wenxin Du |
HBS | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
I agree with the idea, but with many caveats. CAPM is a static model-a straw man. And, far from all "factors that have been identified in the academic literature" to earn positive returns relative to CAPM are effective tilts. But some probably are effective.
-see background information here |
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Janice Eberly |
Northwestern Kellogg | Bio/Vote History | ||
Fees could overcome any abnormal return expected by retail investors. In addition, the strategy may have liquidity or other factors not transparent in the research literature that add risk or complexity for retail investors.
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Eugene Fama |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Xavier Gabaix |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Itay Goldstein |
UPenn Wharton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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John Graham |
Duke Fuqua | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Campbell R. Harvey |
Duke Fuqua | Bio/Vote History | ||
Any investor can earn extra expected returns by tilting towards additional sources of risk. The challenge is identifying these sources of risk. Further, where will the retail investor seek reliable “advice”? So, for most retail investors, it is best to go with index funds.
-see background information here |
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Harrison Hong |
Columbia | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Wei Jiang |
Emory Goizueta | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
Depends on many factors, including fees.
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
which part of the factor zoo? so many factors, so little time...
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Ralph Koijen |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
Someone needs to be on the other side though. Hence, it depends on the beliefs, sentiment, risk exposures, and preferences of retail investors to determine their optimal portfolio. There is also implementation risk if ETFs, say, dont closely follow the factors in the literature.
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Camelia Kuhnen |
UNC Kenan-Flagler | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Andrew Lo |
MIT Sloan | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Michelle Lowry |
Drexel LeBow | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Sydney Ludvigson |
NYU | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Matteo Maggiori |
Stanford GSB | Bio/Vote History | ||
Especially if the "market portfolio" is in practice proxied by a broad equity index
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Gregor Matvos |
Northwestern Kellogg | Bio/Vote History | ||
There is a good chance that such advice will steer retail investors away from passive investments in low fee and well diversified index funds. In that case retail may be worse off even if there are potential gains from the portfolio tilt.
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Tobias Moskowitz |
Yale School of Management | Bio/Vote History | ||
This is an ill-posed question. Not everyone can tilt away from the market portfolio by definition. So, it has to be the case that for some investors it makes sense and for others it does not. Whether it makes sense depends on risk appetite, liquidity needs, etc. Cannot answer
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Stefan Nagel |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
But only through low-cost investment vehicles
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Jonathan Parker |
MIT Sloan | Bio/Vote History | ||
The theory is clear. Investors should hold portfolios for which the C-CAPM holds with respect to their standard of living or marginal utility. If the factors help do this great. If not, then ignore them.
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Christine Parlour |
Berkeley Haas | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Thomas Philippon |
NYU Stern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Manju Puri |
Duke Fuqua | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Michael R. Roberts |
UPenn Wharton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Paola Sapienza |
Northwestern Kellogg | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Amit Seru |
Stanford GSB | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Robert Stambaugh |
UPenn Wharton | Bio/Vote History | ||
It's probably appropriate only if most investors don't take that advice.
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Laura Starks |
UT Austin McCombs | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Jeremy Stein |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Johannes Stroebel |
NYU Stern | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Sheridan Titman |
UT Austin McCombs | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh |
Columbia Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
Retail investors may want to earn higher return, even if that involves exposure to factor risk. Of course, even better if the higher return does not reflect extra risk
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Toni Whited |
UMich Ross School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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