US

100-Day Plan

Question A:

If all of the “Seven actions to protect American workers” in President-elect Trump’s 100-day plan (see link) are enacted, it will more likely than not improve the economic prospects of middle-class Americans over the next decade.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question B:

If all of the “Seven actions to protect American workers” in President-elect Trump’s 100-day plan are enacted, it will more likely than not improve the economic prospects of low-skilled Americans over the next decade.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question A Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Even if we no longer import from and offshore to China and Mexico, manufacturing jobs won't come back. If they did, they would before robots
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Disagree
4
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Many of these actions will make the average American poorer over the long run. Whether the long run arrives within 10 years is uncertain.
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee
MIT
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier
Princeton Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Strongly Disagree
9
Bio/Vote History
Where do I start?
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Strongly Disagree
4
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Disagree
2
Bio/Vote History
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Short term fiscal stimulus will be a + for the MC but then the negatives (investor uncertainty, inequality, geopolitical risk) will dominate
Einav
Liran Einav
Stanford
Strongly Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Finkelstein
Amy Finkelstein
MIT Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Strongly Disagree
10
Bio/Vote History
not even funny anymore
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Strongly Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Hart
Oliver Hart
Harvard
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Many forces are responsible for middle-class people feeling left behind. These policies may make things worse by raising prices of imports.
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Too many dramatic changes and conflicting forces to have more than a hunch.
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes
Berkeley
Strongly Disagree
9
Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Strongly Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
Trade proposals negative; energy proposals positive. Net effect uncertain. Regulatory relief also positive, but not among 7 actions.
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
shutting down trade will be bad for most people, the jobs are not coming back, the infrastructure gains might be good
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Strongly Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Disagree
3
Bio/Vote History
Plan is basically to raise trade barriers. Will scramble markets and raise prices. Hard to see any benefits but cloudy cristal ball here.
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson
Yale
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
The proposals are too vague to assess with any confidence, but the seeming isolationist theme is not encouraging.
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
Strongly Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Though negative impact on climate change may take longer to show up, trade proposals should have negative effects in shorter time-frame.
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Disagree
4
Bio/Vote History
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro
Berkeley Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Shimer
Robert Shimer
University of Chicago
Strongly Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Strongly Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Strongly Disagree
9
Bio/Vote History
These 7 actions are symbolism (5, 6), actions with trivial immediate but disastrous long run consequences (7) or threats of trade war (1-4)

Question B Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Increased infrastructure spending could help construction, but the overall plan won't help workers & will likely reduce medium term growth.
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Disagree
4
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Policies that raise import prices, deregulate dirty industries, and launch big infrastructure projects will boost non-college wages and jobs
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee
MIT
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier
Princeton Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Strongly Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Strongly Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Uncertain
2
Bio/Vote History
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Strongly Disagree
10
Bio/Vote History
Previous answer squared...
Einav
Liran Einav
Stanford
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Finkelstein
Amy Finkelstein
MIT Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Strongly Disagree
10
Bio/Vote History
oh, please
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Strongly Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Hart
Oliver Hart
Harvard
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Many forces are responsible for working-class people being left behind, including automation. It is hard to turn the clock back.
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes
Berkeley
Strongly Disagree
9
Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Strongly Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
Trade proposals negative; energy proposals positive. Net effect uncertain. Regulatory relief also positive, but not among 7 actions.
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
if lower quality imports are restricted probably hurts the poor more, but as with the first question there are offsetting effects
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Strongly Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Disagree
3
Bio/Vote History
Will raise cost of living with few offsets.
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson
Yale
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
As before, the proposals are too vague to assess with confidence, but have an apparent isolationist theme that is not encouraging.
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
Strongly Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Most low skilled workers would be hurt by higher cost of imports, disruption of global supply chains caused by tariffs and retaliations.
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Disagree
4
Bio/Vote History
These are not the most important of his proposals, of course.
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro
Berkeley Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Shimer
Robert Shimer
University of Chicago
Strongly Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Strongly Disagree
1
Bio/Vote History
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Strongly Disagree
9
Bio/Vote History
The protectionism of pts 1-4 will benefit some workers, but will hurt most. Even worse if it devolves into trade war.