US Economic Experts Panel

The Clark Center for Global Markets explores economists’ views on vital policy issues via our US and European Economic Experts Panels. We regularly poll over 80 economists on a range of timely and relevant topics. Panelists not only have the opportunity to respond to a poll’s statements, but an opportunity to comment and provide additional resources, if they wish. The Clark Center then shares the results with the public in a straightforward and concise format.

Please note that from September 2022, the language in our polls will use just two modifiers to refer to the size of an effect:

‘Substantial’: when an effect is large enough that it would make a difference that matters for the behavior involved.
‘Measurable’: when the direction of the effect is clear, but perhaps experts would differ as to whether it is substantial.

Tariffs, Technology, and Growth

Question A:

Doubling existing tariffs on imports from China of critical production components in solar energy manufacturing will provide a substantial boost to employment in the domestic 'cleantech' sector over the next five years.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Question B:

Disruptions to global supply chains from new tariffs and trade wars will lead to measurably slower global growth over the next five years.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Economic Growth, Development, & Productivity

December 18, 2024

Department of Education

Given that much of the Department of Education's budget is allocated to postsecondary education (including Pell grants and student loans), closing the department would have no measurable effect on the average K to 12th grade school student.

Link: https://www.kentclarkcenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/USDeptOfEducation_2024_Appropriations.pdf

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Democracy, Government, & Public Policy

December 3, 2024

Social Security

This US survey examines (a) The Trustees of the U.S. Social Security system currently estimate that the OASI trust fund will be exhausted in 2033, after which substantial benefit cuts are mandated without a change in the law. The response to the impending exhaustion of the OASI trust fund is likely to rely more on general government borrowing than on increases in social security taxes or reductions in social security benefits; (b) As in the most recent major change in Social Security finances (adopted in 1983), the most prudent way to address the impending exhaustion of the OASI trust fund would feature a balanced combination of payroll tax increases and reductions in the benefits received for any given retirement age

Public Debt & Deficits

November 14, 2024

Institutions and Prosperity

This US survey examines (a) The institutions of society - such as constitutions, laws, judiciaries, and property rights - substantially shape economic decisions, policies, and outcomes; (b) On average and over the long term, democracies deliver substantially better economic growth than other forms of government; (c) Countries where democracy and the rule of law are weakened are likely to experience measurable damage to their economic performance

Democracy, Government, & Public Policy

October 22, 2024

Sovereign Wealth Funds

This US survey examines (a) Establishing a domestic sovereign wealth fund to invest in infrastructure, emerging technologies, and/or strategic sectors would bring substantial benefits to the US economy over a ten-year horizon; (b) The typical advanced economy could substantially boost growth by establishing a sovereign wealth fund to invest in infrastructure, emerging technologies, and/or strategic sectors; (c) For a typical advanced economy, establishing a sovereign wealth fund would be substantially better for citizens relative to paying down the debt as a use for excess revenue

Economic Growth, Development, & Productivity

October 15, 2024

Election Economic Policy Ideas

This US survey examines: (a) Giving the President more direct influence over monetary policy would lead to substantially worse monetary policy decisions; (b) Imposing tariffs results in a substantial portion of the tariffs being borne by consumers of the country that enacts the tariffs, through price increases; (c) There is little empirical evidence that price gouging is causing high grocery prices; (d) Widespread use of price controls creates substantial economic distortions

International Trade & Exchange Rates

September 10, 2024

National Rent Caps

This US survey examines: (a) Capping annual rent increases by corporate landlords at 5%, as proposed by President Biden, would make middle-income Americans substantially better off over the next ten years; (b) Capping annual rent increases at 5%, as proposed by President Biden, would substantially reduce the amount of available apartments for rent over the next ten years; (c) Capping annual rent increases at 5%, as proposed by President Biden, would substantially reduce US income inequality over the next ten years

Investment, Infrastructure, & Cities

July 23, 2024

Tax Cuts Extension

This US survey examines (a) All else equal, making permanent the 2017 tax cuts that were set to expire at the end of 2025 would substantially increase federal deficits and the federal debt over the coming decade; (b) All else equal, making permanent the 2017 tax cuts that were set to expire at the end of 2025 would measurably increase the rate of US economic growth over the coming decade, (c) In the US, given Congressional budget scoring rules, temporary tax cuts generate sufficient pressure for extension as to be effectively permanent

Economic Growth, Development, & Productivity

July 16, 2024

Publicly Traded Firms, Private Firms and the Economy

This US survey examines (a) The lower willingness of private firms to go public, combined with the increased number of publicly traded firms being taken private over the last 25 years, is measurably net negative for economic growth; (b) All else equal, reducing regulatory barriers (including reporting requirements such as Sarbanes Oxley 404) to public listing would substantially increase the share of publicly traded firms in the economy; (c) The lack of transparency about unlisted private firms' financial performance substantially hinders the efficiency of the allocation of capital

Business, Management, & Corporate Performance

July 3, 2024

Regulating AI

This US survey examines: (a) Antitrust investigations of the dominant firms in artificial intelligence are likely to lead to substantially lower prices of AI products and services for businesses and consumers; (b) Antitrust investigations of the dominant firms in artificial intelligence are likely to promote greater competition and innovation in AI; (c) Potential harms from artificial intelligence are better assessed by market deployment rather than seeking to slow the pace of AI research and implementation

Regulation, Competition, & Market Power

June 18, 2024