By Topic

This European survey examines (a) The fundamental cause of Argentina’s high inflation is unfunded fiscal commitments that are being financed by the central bank; (b) Even if Argentina could marshal the resources to make a full switch to using US dollars for domestic transactions, it would substantially increase the volatility of Argentine GDP 

This US survey examines a) The fundamental cause of Argentina’s high inflation is unfunded fiscal commitments that are being financed by the central bank; (b) Even if Argentina could marshal the resources to make a full switch to using US dollars for domestic transactions, it would substantially increase the volatility of Argentine GDP 

This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel Statements: A) Amending the Constitution to require that the federal government end each fiscal year without a deficit would substantially reduce output variability in the United States. B) Amending the Constitution to require that the federal government end each fiscal year without a deficit would substantially lower the cost of borrowing for the federal government. 

This US survey examines (a) When economic policy-makers are unable to commit credibly in advance to a specific decision rule, they will often follow a poor policy trajectory; (b) Rules-based fiscal policies deliver substantially better outcomes than purely discretionary, on the spot, policy choices. 

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement: Because all federal spending and taxes must be approved by both houses of Congress and the executive branch, a separate debt ceiling that has to be increased periodically creates unneeded uncertainty and can potentially lead to worse fiscal outcomes. 

This US survey examines (a) A combination of the US federal government having to defer some invoice, benefit, and salary payments, and miss payments on Treasury securities for several weeks would do substantial damage to financial markets; (b) A combination of the US federal government having to defer some invoice, benefit, and salary payments, and miss payments on Treasury securities for several weeks would lead to substantially lower employment within six months; (c) The requirement to periodically increase the debt ceiling measurably reduces the long-run size of the debt 

This US survey examines (a) Debt sustainability analysis – for example, as practiced currently by the International Monetary Fund – substantially improves the ability to predict future sovereign debt crises; (b) The European Commission’s proposed move from the existing EU fiscal rules to ones based on debt sustainability analysis would be a measurable improvement; (c) A move from the existing fiscal rules to independent fiscal councils would be more effective than a move to rules based on debt sustainability. 

This European survey examines (a) Debt sustainability analysis – for example, as practiced currently by the International Monetary Fund – substantially improves the ability to predict future sovereign debt crises; (b) The European Commission’s proposed move from the existing EU fiscal rules to ones based on debt sustainability analysis would be a measurable improvement; (c) A move from the existing fiscal rules to independent fiscal councils would be more effective than a move to rules based on debt sustainability. 

This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel statement: If the US reduced its fiscal deficit, then its trade deficit would also shrink.