This feature enables you to develop a side-by-side comparison between your group (students, colleagues, etc.) and the experts.
The library below contains all of the past Economics Experts Panel surveys, dating from 2011 the panels’ inception in 2011 to the present. It includes both the US and the European polls, and covers topics from Baumol’s Cost Disease to Christmas Spending.
Instructions
Using the library of past Economic Experts Panel polls, select up to three archived polls to add to your cart. (You can find specific polls by using the keyword search and various filters on the left navigation menu.)
Once you have selected the surveys you want to include in the comparison, click on the cart icon in the upper right to continue.
This week’s IGM European Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) Following the UK election result, the certainty that the country is going to leave the European Union will provide a substantial short-term boost to the UK economy.B) Given that the transition period currently expires at the end of 2020, there is still a considerable risk that the UK will leave the European Union without a trade agreement.C) Leaving the European Union without a trade agreement would have a large negative impact on the UK economy.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) If the federal minimum wage is raised gradually to $15-per-hour by 2020, the employment rate for low-wage US workers will be substantially lower than it would be under the status quo.B) Increasing the federal minimum wage gradually to $15-per-hour by 2020 would substantially increase aggregate output in the US economy.
This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) If all of the “Seven actions to protect American workers” in President-elect Trump’s 100-day plan (see link) are enacted, it will more likely than not improve the economic prospects of middle-class Americans over the next decade.B) If all of the “Seven actions to protect American workers” in President-elect Trump’s 100-day plan are enacted, it will more likely than not improve the economic prospects of low-skilled Americans over the next decade.
This European survey examines (a) Europe’s economic growth performance over the last 25 years has been measurably better than it would have been in the absence of the single currency; (b) With euro area member states having given up their ability to carry out independent monetary policy, it is substantially more difficult for them to respond effectively to country-specific macroeconomic disturbances
This Finance survey examines: It is appropriate advice for retail investors to tilt their portfolio away from the market portfolio towards factors that have been identified in the academic literature to earn positive abnormal returns relative to the Capital Asset Pricing Model
This week's US Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) The UK economy is likely to be at least several percentage points smaller in 2030 than it would have been if the country had remained in the European Union.B) The aggregate economy of the 27 countries still in the EU is likely to be at least several percentage points smaller in 2030 than if the UK had not left.
This week's European Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) The UK economy is likely to be at least several percentage points smaller in 2030 than it would have been if the country had remained in the European Union.B) The aggregate economy of the 27 countries still in the EU is likely to be at least several percentage points smaller in 2030 than if the UK had not left.
This week's European Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) Without changes in policy, a rising share of people who are over age 65 will exert a substantial downward influence on per capita real GDP in western European countries.B) In European countries where the share of those over 65 is rising, there are net social benefits to adjusting retirement ages for state-financed (including pay-as-you-go) pension systems upwards, so that revised retirement ages better reflect longer life expectancies.
This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) Without changes in policy, a rising share of people who are over age 65 will exert a substantial downward influence on per capita real GDP in western European countries.
B) In European countries where the share of those over 65 is rising, there are net social benefits to adjusting retirement ages for state-financed (including pay-as-you-go) pension systems upwards, so that revised retirement ages better reflect longer life expectancies.
This US survey examines (a) Use of artificial intelligence is likely to lead to a substantial increase in problems associated with market power in digital markets; (b) Artificial intelligence offers substantial opportunities for new entrants into digital markets that have previously been concentrated; (c) Artificial intelligence is likely to be a highly concentrated industry, dominated by a handful of players
This European survey examines (a) Use of artificial intelligence is likely to lead to a substantial increase in problems associated with market power in digital markets; (b) Artificial intelligence offers substantial opportunities for new entrants into digital markets that have previously been concentrated; (c) Artificial intelligence is likely to be a highly concentrated industry, dominated by a handful of players
This US survey examines (a) Use of artificial intelligence over the next ten years will lead to a substantial increase in the growth rates of real per capita income in the US and Western Europe over the subsequent two decades; (b) Use of artificial intelligence over the next ten years will have a substantially bigger impact on the growth rates of real per capita income in the US and Western Europe over the subsequent two decades than the internet has had over the past two decades
This European survey examines (a) Use of artificial intelligence over the next ten years will lead to a substantial increase in the growth rates of real per capita income in the US and Western Europe over the subsequent two decades; (b) Use of artificial intelligence over the next ten years will have a substantially bigger impact on the growth rates of real per capita income in the US and Western Europe over the subsequent two decades than the internet has had over the past two decades
This US survey examines (a) Use of artificial intelligence over the next ten years will have a negative impact on the earnings potential of substantial numbers of high-skilled workers in advanced countries; (b) Use of artificial intelligence over the next ten years will lead to substantially greater uncertainty about the likely returns to investment in education; (c) Use of artificial intelligence over the next ten years is likely to have a measurable impact in increasing income inequality
This European survey examines (a) Use of artificial intelligence over the next ten years will have a negative impact on the earnings potential of substantial numbers of high-skilled workers in advanced countries; (b) Use of artificial intelligence over the next ten years will lead to substantially greater uncertainty about the likely returns to investment in education; (c) Use of artificial intelligence over the next ten years is likely to have a measurable impact in increasing income inequality
This European survey examines (a) If countries could impose a ban on the use of ChatGPT and similar generative AI chatbot services that is technologically effective, they would experience a measurably negative impact on national innovation; (b) Regardless of whether advances in AI spur productivity growth, they are likely to create deep challenges for society – in areas from labor markets to politics, and including disinformation, privacy, crime, and warfare – that will be difficult to anticipate, plan for, and contain.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A: Amazon has monopsony power in the market for books that is significantly reducing the supply of books.B: Amazon has sufficient monopsony power that regulatory intervention is likely to make consumers of books better off, taking into account implementation costs and the effect of intervention on incentives.
This week's IGM European Economic Experts Panel Statement:
The European Union often uses its antitrust powers to protect EU-based firms from international competition, rather than to promote greater competition in European markets.
This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:
The European Union often uses its antitrust powers to protect EU-based firms from international competition, rather than to promote greater competition in European markets.
This week's European Economic Experts Panel statement:
A) Google's dominance of the market for internet search arose mainly from a combination of economies of scale and a quality algorithm.
B) In light of Google’s dominance, its current operating practices could have a substantial negative effect on social welfare in the long run.
C) The nature of the market dominance of technology giants in the digital economy warrants either the imposition of some kind of regulation or a fundamental change in antitrust policy.
This week's US Economic Experts Panel statement:
A) Google's dominance of the market for internet search arose mainly from a combination of economies of scale and a quality algorithm.
B) In light of Google’s dominance, its current operating practices could have a substantial negative effect on social welfare in the long run.
C) The nature of the market dominance of technology giants in the digital economy warrants either the imposition of some kind of regulation or a fundamental change in antitrust policy.
This European survey examines (a) The fundamental cause of Argentina’s high inflation is unfunded fiscal commitments that are being financed by the central bank; (b) Even if Argentina could marshal the resources to make a full switch to using US dollars for domestic transactions, it would substantially increase the volatility of Argentine GDP
This US survey examines a) The fundamental cause of Argentina’s high inflation is unfunded fiscal commitments that are being financed by the central bank; (b) Even if Argentina could marshal the resources to make a full switch to using US dollars for domestic transactions, it would substantially increase the volatility of Argentine GDP
This European survey examines: The European Union's AI Act was approved by the European Parliament in March 2024: https://artificialintelligenceact.eu/the-act/ (a) The EU's legislation to regulate artificial intelligence is likely to put European technology firms at a substantial disadvantage to their competitors elsewhere in the world; (b) By providing a clear set of rules, the EU's legislation on artificial intelligence is likely to enhance research and innovation by firms building the new technology
This week's European Economic Experts Panel statement:
The practical application of auction theory to the licensing of rights to use public assets like radiospectrum and other natural resources has generated substantially higher government revenues and better allocative efficiency worldwide than would have happened under previous arrangements.
This week's US Economic Experts Panel statement:
The practical application of auction theory to the licensing of rights to use public assets like radiospectrum and other natural resources has generated substantially higher government revenues and better allocative efficiency worldwide than would have happened under previous arrangements.
This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:
Over the next decade, autonomous cars will raise average welfare in the US by at least as much as smartphones have over the past decade.
This week’s IGM European Economic Experts Panel statement:
Over the next decade, autonomous cars will raise average welfare in the EU by at least as much as smartphones have over the past decade.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:
Giving specific presents as holiday gifts is inefficient, because recipients could satisfy their preferences much better with cash.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A: Taking into account all of the economic consequences — including the incentives of banks to ensure their own liquidity and solvency in the future — the benefits of bailing out U.S. banks in 2008 will end up exceeding the costs.B: Because GM and Chrysler were bailed out in 2008-09, the U.S. unemployment rate was lower at the end of 2010 than it would it have been if Congress and the executive branch had not intervened.C: Taking into account all of the economic consequences — including effects on corporate managers' incentives and on creditors' expectations of how their claims will be treated in future bankruptcies — the benefits of bailing out GM and Chrysler will end up exceeding the costs.
This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel Statements:
A) Amending the Constitution to require that the federal government end each fiscal year without a deficit would substantially reduce output variability in the United States.B) Amending the Constitution to require that the federal government end each fiscal year without a deficit would substantially lower the cost of borrowing for the federal government.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel poll statement:
Because the U.S. Treasury bailed out and backstopped banks (by injecting equity into them in late 2008, and later committing to provide public capital to any banks that failed the stress tests and could not raise private capital), the U.S. unemployment rate was lower at the end of 2010 than it would have been without these measures.
This European survey examines (a) The UK’s removal of the cap on bankers' bonuses (introduced by the EU in 2014 and which limits payouts to two times annual base salary) will provide a measurable boost to the country’s economic growth; (b) Removing the cap on bankers' bonuses will measurably enhance the global competitiveness of the UK’s financial services sector; (c) Removing the cap on bankers' bonuses will pose a measurable risk to financial stability in the UK.
This US survey examines (a) Financial regulators in the US and Europe lack the tools and authority to deter runs on banks by uninsured depositors; (b) Not guaranteeing uninsured deposits at Silicon Valley Bank in full would have created substantial damage to the US economy; (c) Fully guaranteeing uninsured deposits at Silicon Valley Bank substantially increases banks’ incentives to engage in excessive risk-taking
This European survey examines (a) Financial regulators in the US and Europe lack the tools and authority to deter runs on banks by uninsured depositors; (b) Not guaranteeing uninsured deposits at Silicon Valley Bank in full would have created substantial damage to the US economy; (c) Fully guaranteeing uninsured deposits at Silicon Valley Bank substantially increases banks’ incentives to engage in excessive risk-taking
This Finance survey examines (a) Financial regulators in the US and Europe lack the tools and authority to deter runs on banks by uninsured depositors; (b) Not guaranteeing uninsured deposits at Silicon Valley Bank in full would have created substantial damage to the US economy; (c) Fully guaranteeing uninsured deposits at Silicon Valley Bank substantially increases banks’ incentives to engage in excessive risk-taking
This US survey examines (a) Research on the nature and impact of bank runs has made it possible to limit substantially the wider economic damage from financial crises; (b) Reforms of financial regulation since 2008 (and macroprudential policies in some countries) will not substantially reduce the probability of financial crises
This European survey examines (a) Research on the nature and impact of bank runs has made it possible to limit substantially the wider economic damage from financial crises; (b) Reforms of financial regulation since 2008 (and macroprudential policies in some countries) will not substantially reduce the probability of financial crises.
This Finance survey examines (a) Research on the nature and impact of bank runs has made it possible to limit substantially the wider economic damage from financial crises; (b) Reforms of financial regulation since 2008 (and macroprudential policies in some countries) will not substantially reduce the probability of financial crises
This Finance survey examines (a) Since maturity transformation is an inherent feature of commercial banks' business model, some duration mismatch between assets and liabilities is unavoidable; (b) For the purposes of capital regulation, banks should be required to mark their holdings of Treasury and Agency securities to market at all times (even though their loans are not marked to market)
This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:
Because labor markets across different sectors are connected, rising productivity in manufacturing leads the cost of labor-intensive services — such as education and health care — to rise.
This week's IGM European Economic Experts Panel statement:
Insights from psychology about individual behavior – examples of which include limited rationality, low self-control, or a taste for fairness – predict several important types of observed market outcomes that fully-rational economic models do not.
This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel Statement:
Insights from psychology about individual behavior – examples of which include limited rationality, low self-control, or a taste for fairness – predict several important types of observed market outcomes that fully-rational economic models do not.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A: The U.S government should make further efforts to shrink the size of the country's largest banks — such as by capping the size of their liabilities or penalizing large banks more heavily through taxes or other means — because the existing regulations do not require the biggest banks to internalize enough of the "too-big-to-fail" risks that they pose.B: The economic benefits to the U.S. of having a handful of banks with balance sheets greater than $1 trillion are small.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:
A bitcoin's value derives solely from the belief that others will want to use it for trade, which implies that its purchasing power is likely to fluctuate over time to a degree that will limit its usefulness.
This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) A bitcoin has a fundamental value of at least $1,000.B) The best forecast for the value of one bitcoin in 2 years is its current price.
This week's IGM European Economic Experts Panel Statements:
A) Bitcoins are more similar to gold than they are to currency.
B) Bitcoins are more similar to gold than they are to Dutch tulips in the 1630s.
This week's IGM European Experts Panel statements:
A) All else equal, if corporations throughout Europe set quotas for a minimum number of women board members, the shareholder value of European companies would increase.B) Taking into account the likely effects on investments in human capital by men and women, setting quotas throughout Europe for a minimum number of women board members would generate substantial net benefits for Europeans.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) Implementing a "destination based cash flow tax (including border adjustment)" of the type advocated by Speaker Ryan would substantially reduce the US trade deficit within the next few years.B) Implementing a "destination based cash flow tax (including border adjustment)" of the type advocated by Speaker Ryan would substantially raise prices for US consumers.
This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
The four largest domestic US banks currently have around 40% of the industry’s domestic assets (an average of 10% each). In early 1998, before Glass-Steagall ended and before Citicorp merged with Travelers, they held 13.2% (an average of 3.3% each). Thirty years ago, before interstate branching was fully permitted, that combined share was around 8% (an average of 2% each). A) Capping US banks’ size so that no single bank could be larger than 4% of the sector's domestic assets would lower systemic risk in the US.B) The US financial system would contribute more to the average American’s welfare if the size of US banks were capped so that none could be larger than 4% of the sector's domestic assets.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) Forcing Amazon to divest Whole Foods now would be in the public interest.B) Acquisitions by large tech platforms where there are risks of anti-competitive effects like those posed by Amazon’s acquisition of Whole Foods should not be permitted.C) Large tech platforms, such as Amazon Marketplace and Google Search, should be designated as ‘platform utilities' and broken apart from any participant on that platform.
This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) If the UK opts to withdraw from the European Union, and assuming Scotland stays in the UK, the level of the UK's real per-capita income a decade later will be lower than if it remains part of the EU.B) If the UK exits the EU, then it substantially increases the chances that some other current region of the EU will also exit within the following decade.
This week's IGM European Economics Experts Panel statements:
A) Because of the Brexit vote's outcome, the UK's real per-capita income level is likely to be lower a decade from now than it would have been otherwise.B) Because of the Brexit vote's outcome, the rest of the EU's real per-capita income level is likely to be lower a decade from now than it would have been otherwise.
This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) Because of the Brexit vote's outcome, the UK's real per-capita income level is likely to be lower a decade from now.B) Because of the Brexit vote's outcome, the rest of the EU's real per-capita income level is likely to be lower a decade from now.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) Following the UK election result, the certainty that the country is going to leave the European Union will provide a substantial short-term boost to the UK economy.B) The near certainty that the UK will leave the European Union's customs union and single market in 2020 offers a sizeable export market opportunity for American business.
This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) By providing important measures of US economic performance — including employment, consumer prices, wages, job openings, time allocation in households, and productivity — the Bureau of Labor Statistics creates social benefits that exceed its annual cost of roughly $610 million.B) Cuts in BLS spending would likely involve net social costs because potential declines in the quality of data, and thus their usefulness to researchers and decision makers, would exceed any budget savings.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel poll statement:
Federal mandates that government purchases should be “buy American” unless there are exceptional circumstances, such as in the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, have a significant positive impact on U.S. manufacturing employment.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:
Consumers would not necessarily be better off if cable and satellite TV firms were required to offer a la carte pricing for individual channels, because the networks' programming charges and the satellite-and-cable fees could adjust in response to this rule.
This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:
The “Cadillac tax” on expensive employer-provided health insurance plans will reduce costly distortions in US health care if it is allowed to take effect as scheduled in 2018.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:
Californians would be better off on average if all final users in the state paid the same price for water — adjusted for quality, place and time — even if, as a result, some food prices rose sharply and some farms failed.
This European survey examines (a) Creation of a more unified capital market in Europe - with a common pool of capital, a single rule book and a strengthened European Securities and Markets Authority, comparable to the US Securities and Exchange Commission – would lead to a substantial shift in the balance of companies listing their shares in the EU vis-a-vis the US; (b) Creation of a more unified capital market in Europe - with a common pool of capital, a single rule book and a strengthened European Securities and Markets Authority, comparable to the US Securities and Exchange Commission – would substantially increase the availability of funding for start-ups and growing companies across the EU
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:
Experience over the past 30 years shows that for the typical emerging market nation facing rapid capital outflows, spending foreign currency reserves to defend its currency is a better policy for its citizens than not doing so.
This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel poll statement:
A tax on the carbon content of fuels would be a less expensive way to reduce carbon-dioxide emissions than would a collection of policies such as “corporate average fuel economy” requirements for automobiles.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:
The Brookings Institution recently described a US carbon tax of $20 per ton, increasing at 4% per year, which would raise an estimated $150 billion per year in federal revenues over the next decade. Given the negative externalities created by carbon dioxide emissions, a federal carbon tax at this rate would involve fewer harmful net distortions to the US economy than a tax increase that generated the same revenue by raising marginal tax rates on labor income across the board.
This week's US Economic Experts Panel statements:
The Bank for International Settlements defines a central bank digital currency as follows: ‘In simple terms, a central bank digital currency (CBDC) would be a digital banknote. It could be used by individuals to pay businesses, shops or each other (a 'retail CBDC'), or between financial institutions to settle trades in financial markets (a ‘wholesale CBDC').’A) For developed countries, a central bank digital currency that is available to the public at large would offer social benefits that exceed the associated costs or risks.B) Central banks that do not introduce their own digital money risk losing the ability to conduct effective monetary policy.C) The introduction of a central bank digital currency is unlikely to have major effects on the economy.
This week's European Economic Experts Panel statements:
The Bank for International Settlements defines a central bank digital currency as follows: ‘In simple terms, a central bank digital currency (CBDC) would be a digital banknote. It could be used by individuals to pay businesses, shops or each other (a 'retail CBDC'), or between financial institutions to settle trades in financial markets (a ‘wholesale CBDC').’A) For developed countries, a central bank digital currency that is available to the public at large would offer social benefits that exceed the associated costs or risks.B) Central banks that do not introduce their own digital money risk losing the ability to conduct effective monetary policy.C) The introduction of a central bank digital currency is unlikely to have major effects on the economy.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) Under current policies on climate change, the associated physical risks (such as those arising from total seasonal rainfall and sea level changes, and increased frequency, severity, and correlation of extreme weather events) will be at most a very small factor in monetary policy decisions over the next decade.B) The physical risks associated with climate change under current policies are likely to threaten financial stability over the next decade.
This week’s IGM European Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) Under current policies on climate change, the associated physical risks (such as those arising from total seasonal rainfall and sea level changes, and increased frequency, severity, and correlation of extreme weather events) will be at most a very small factor in monetary policy decisions over the next decade.B) The physical risks associated with climate change under current policies are likely to threaten financial stability over the next decade.
This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:
Britain’s Labour party recently proposed giving the Bank of England a target of 3% annual labor productivity growth. Consider the following statement:
Central banks cannot significantly increase productivity growth over a ten year horizon, except perhaps by promoting macroeconomic stability.
This week's IGM European Economic Experts Panel Statement:
Britain’s Labour party recently proposed giving the Bank of England a target of 3% annual labor productivity growth. Consider the following statement:
Central banks cannot significantly increase productivity growth over a ten year horizon, except perhaps by promoting macroeconomic stability.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:
Informed postmortems of Ben Bernanke’s Fed chairmanship will judge favorably the Fed's creative and aggressive policy initiatives from autumn 2008 through early 2009.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:
Reducing the income-tax deductibility of charitable gifts is a less distortionary way to raise new revenue than raising the same amount of revenue through a proportional increase in all marginal tax rates.
This week's IGM European Economic Experts Panel Statements:
A) Trade with China makes most Europeans better off because, among other advantages, they can buy goods that are made or assembled more cheaply in China.B) Some Europeans who work in the production of competing goods, such as clothing and furniture, are made worse off by trade with China.C) If the EU followed the new US steel tariffs by imposing similar EU tariffs on steel from China, it would improve Europeans’ welfare.
This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) Trade with China makes most Americans better off because, among other advantages, they can buy goods that are made or assembled more cheaply in China.B) Some Americans who work in the production of competing goods, such as clothing and furniture, are made worse off by trade with China.
This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) The incidence of the latest round of US import tariffs is likely to fall primarily on American households.B) The impact of the tariffs – and any Chinese countermeasures – on US prices and employment is likely to be felt most heavily by lower income groups and regions.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:
China’s growth model, specifically the unusually high investment rate and low consumption rate, is unsustainable.
This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:
An annual December spending surge on parties, gift-giving and personal travel delivers net social benefits.
This week's European Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) All else equal, there are substantial advantages to having much of Europe’s human capital and infrastructure for international financial activity clustered in a single city, as they are at present in London.B) All else equal, Britain’s rules on hiring, firing and working hours are significantly more conducive to financial activity than those in other large European countries.
This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) Considering a broad range of costs and benefits is a better tool for guiding climate policy than setting temperature limits (such as 1.5 °C, eg) based on expected links between temperature increases and the extent of environmental harm.B) Carbon taxes are a better way to implement climate policy than cap-and-trade.
This Finance survey examines (a) A mandate for public companies to provide climate-related disclosures (such as their greenhouse gas emissions and carbon footprint) would provide financially material information that enables investors to make better decisions; (b) A mandate for public companies to provide climate-related disclosures would provide material information that enables investors to make better decisions with regards to non-financial objectives (such as aiding portfolio choice based on ESG principles); (c) A mandate for public companies to provide climate-related disclosures would induce them to reduce their climate impact substantially.
This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) The admission of children of alumni and donors at elite private colleges and universities crowds out applicants with greater academic potential.B) The net effect of admitting children of alumni and donors (including any impact on donations and any losses of other high potential applicants) is likely to be a reduction in the contribution of colleges and universities to society.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:
If the NCAA let colleges pay athletes with more than scholarships (which currently may cover tuition, books, room and board), then top colleges in men’s basketball and football would pay most athletes substantial sums beyond full scholarships.
This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:
An important reason why private college and university tuition has risen faster than the CPI during the past few decades is because competition for faculty members — whose potential earnings in other sectors have steadily improved — has driven up their pay faster than their productivity.
This Finance survey examines (a) The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on working and shopping habits has not been fully priced into current private valuations of downtown commercial properties in major cities; (b) A continued fall in commercial real estate valuations would trigger another round of banking panic
This US survey examines (a) When economic policy-makers are unable to commit credibly in advance to a specific decision rule, they will often follow a poor policy trajectory; (b) Rules-based fiscal policies deliver substantially better outcomes than purely discretionary, on the spot, policy choices.
This week's US Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) Industry consolidation and weaker competition in the United States meaningfully constrain innovation and wage growth.B) Americans pay too much for broadband, cable television, and telecommunications services, in part because of a lack of adequate competition.
This week's US Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) The use of non-compete clauses in US employment contracts reduces workers' mobility and wages by more than is justified by the protection of employers' intellectual property and trade secrets.B) Occupational licensing reduces mobility and wages for workers in many sectors where they could safely deliver services that consumers would prefer to those offered by licensed workers.
This US survey examines (a) Given the centrality of semiconductors to the manufacturing of many products, securing reliable supplies should be a key strategic objective of national policy; (b) Restrictions on exports of semiconductors and related high-tech equipment to China will substantially improve US technological leadership
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel poll statement:
In general, using more congestion charges in crowded transportation networks — such as higher tolls during peak travel times in cities, and peak fees for airplane takeoff and landing slots — and using the proceeds to lower other taxes would make citizens on average better off.
This week's IGM European Economic Experts Panel statement:
In general, using more congestion charges in crowded transportation networks — such as higher tolls during peak travel times in cities, and peak fees for airplane takeoff and landing slots — and using the proceeds to lower other taxes would make citizens on average better off.
This US survey examines: A tolling program for New York City is out for public consultation with proposed charges on vehicles entering the central business district of Manhattan summarized here: https://new.mta.info/document/129191 (a) The proposed tolls on vehicles entering the central business district of Manhattan are likely to lead to a substantial reduction in traffic congestion in the targeted area; (b) The proposed tolls on vehicles entering Manhattan are likely to lead to a substantial increase in traffic congestion just outside the central business district, above 60th Street, in the outer boroughs and New Jersey
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:
Legislation introduced in Congress would require the Federal Reserve to "submit to the appropriate congressional committees…a Directive Policy Rule", which shall "describe the strategy or rule of the Federal Open Market Committee for the systematic quantitative adjustment of the Policy Instrument Target to respond to a change in the Intermediate Policy Inputs." Should the Fed deviate from the rule, the Fed Chair would have to "testify before the appropriate congressional committees as to why the [rule]…is not in compliance." Enacting this provision would improve monetary policy outcomes in the U.S.
This European survey examines (a) Current enforcement of competition policy in Europe is not working to promote innovation and growth; b) European Union bureaucracy and regulations are a substantial constraint on innovation in Europe; c) The conduct of the dominant US tech companies in European markets (including lobbying and acquisition of start-ups and competitors) is a substantial constraint on innovation in Europe
This week’s IGM European Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) Even if the mortality of COVID-19 proves to be limited (similar to the number of flu deaths in a regular season), it is likely to cause a major recession.B) The economic effects of COVID-19 coming from reduced spending will be larger than those coming from disruptions to supply chains and illness-related workforce reductions.C) The economic policy institutions of the Eurozone are well equipped to ameliorate the potential economic damage from COVID-19.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) Even if the mortality of COVID-19 proves to be limited (similar to the number of flu deaths in a regular season), it is likely to cause a major recession.B) The economic effects of COVID-19 coming from reduced spending will be larger than those coming from disruptions to supply chains and illness-related workforce reductions.
This week's US Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) Until mass vaccination is achieved, any additional government spending going directly to households should focus on keeping low-income individuals and families safe and healthy rather than on boosting current economic activity.B) If the goal is to boost current economic activity, targeting checks at households making less than $75,000 per year would be more cost-effective than providing checks to higher income households as well.
This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel Statement:
It is best for society if the management of U.S. publicly traded corporations only considers the impact of their decisions on customers, employees, and community members to the extent that these impacts feedback to impact shareholder wealth.
This European survey examines (a) In pursuing social and environmental initiatives, the average public company generates more benefits than costs in terms of profits, (b) In pursuing social and environmental initiatives, public companies would benefit from a measurably lower cost of capital, (c) There are substantial social benefits when managers of public companies make choices that account for the impact of their decisions on customers, employees, and community members beyond the effects on shareholders
This Finance survey examines (a) Public companies that pursue social and environmental initiatives bear no measurable costs (in terms of lower profits) relative to similar companies that do not pursue such initiatives; (b) Public companies that pursue social and environmental initiatives benefit from a measurably lower cost of capital than similar companies that do not pursue such initiatives; (c) There are substantial social benefits when managers of public companies make choices that account for the impact of their decisions on customers, employees, and community members beyond the effects on shareholders
This week's IGM European Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) Holding other policies fixed, the average European would be better off if every European country taxed corporate profits at a rate of 20% (based as closely as possible on a common definition of profits).B) If other policies were held fixed and every European country taxed corporate profits at a common rate of 20%, then reducing that common rate substantially below 20% would make the average European better off.
This Finance survey examines The Biden Administration's recommendation to lower the real discount rate used in the cost and benefit analysis of federal regulations to 2 percent (from the current levels of 3 or 7 percent) will substantially improve regulatory analysis.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) Economic damage from the virus and lockdowns will ultimately fall disproportionately hard on low- and middle-income countries.B) A temporary standstill on sovereign debt payments by low- and middle-income countries to all official and private creditors to give those countries space to cover the immediate costs of the crisis would benefit advanced economies.C) Export restrictions on food and medical supplies, and other protectionist measures, are likely to cost lives and slow economic recovery in all countries.
This week’s IGM European Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) Economic damage from the virus and lockdowns will ultimately fall disproportionately hard on low- and middle-income countries.
B) A temporary standstill on sovereign debt payments by low- and middle-income countries to all official and private creditors to give those countries space to cover the immediate costs of the crisis would benefit advanced economies.
C) Export restrictions on food and medical supplies, and other protectionist measures, are likely to cost lives and slow economic recovery in all countries.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:
A substantial source of the value of decentralized private cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin, arises from their convenience for use in illegal activities.
This Finance survey examines (a) A bitcoin's value derives from the belief that others will want to use it, which implies that its purchasing power is likely to fluctuate over time to a degree that will limit its usefulness; b) A substantial source of the value of unbacked decentralized private cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin, arises from their convenience for use in illegal activities; c) A properly diversified portfolio should include crypto assets
This Finance survey examines (a) The collapse of a major crypto intermediary will have little impact on the wider economy and the stability of the traditional financial system; (b) The collapse of a major crypto intermediary suggests the need for the crypto asset class to be more tightly regulated.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:
Cuba’s low per-capita income growth — 1.2 percent per year since 1960 —has more to do with Cuba’s own economic policies than with the U.S. embargo on trade and tourism.
This Finance survey examines (a) The costs and risks associated with a sharp fall in the value of sterling outweigh any macroeconomic benefits for the UK of export stimulus due to a weaker currency; (b) Concerns about government finances and debt sustainability can undermine the reserve currency status of a major currency
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) Economic analysis can identify whether countries are using their exchange rates to benefit their own people at the expense of their trading partners’ welfare.B) Bank of Japan monetary policies that result in a weaker yen make Americans generally worse off.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:
Because all federal spending and taxes must be approved by both houses of Congress and the executive branch, a separate debt ceiling that has to be increased periodically creates unneeded uncertainty and can potentially lead to worse fiscal outcomes.
This Finance survey examines (a) Missing payments on the US Treasury security obligations for several weeks would pose a substantial risk of a global financial crisis; (b) The requirement to periodically increase the debt ceiling measurably reduces the long-run size of the debt
This US survey examines (a) A combination of the US federal government having to defer some invoice, benefit, and salary payments, and miss payments on Treasury securities for several weeks would do substantial damage to financial markets; (b) A combination of the US federal government having to defer some invoice, benefit, and salary payments, and miss payments on Treasury securities for several weeks would lead to substantially lower employment within six months; (c) The requirement to periodically increase the debt ceiling measurably reduces the long-run size of the debt
This US survey examines (a) Debt sustainability analysis – for example, as practiced currently by the International Monetary Fund – substantially improves the ability to predict future sovereign debt crises; (b) The European Commission’s proposed move from the existing EU fiscal rules to ones based on debt sustainability analysis would be a measurable improvement; (c) A move from the existing fiscal rules to independent fiscal councils would be more effective than a move to rules based on debt sustainability.
This European survey examines (a) Debt sustainability analysis – for example, as practiced currently by the International Monetary Fund – substantially improves the ability to predict future sovereign debt crises; (b) The European Commission’s proposed move from the existing EU fiscal rules to ones based on debt sustainability analysis would be a measurable improvement; (c) A move from the existing fiscal rules to independent fiscal councils would be more effective than a move to rules based on debt sustainability.
This week’s IGM European Economic Experts Panel statements:The European Commission has proposed new rules to ensure that “digital business activities are taxed in a fair and growth-friendly way in the EU”. Consider two statements regarding this proposal: An EU-wide 3% tax on revenue from digital activities would, on balance, be a good idea.
If the EU decides to tax digital service providers, it would be better — given the difficulties of measuring and verifying digital activity — to tax them on the revenue, rather than the profits, that they generate locally.
This Finance survey examines (a) Despite the empirical failures of the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) in explaining expected stock returns, a shareholder-value maximizing publicly-traded firm should still use the CAPM to calculate the cost of equity in capital budgeting; (b) The equity risk premium that U.S. publicly traded firms should use in cost of equity calculations in April 2023 is above 6%
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:
In general, absent any inside information, an equity investor can expect to do better by choosing a well-diversified, low-cost index fund than by picking a few stocks.
This week’s European Economic Experts Panel statement:
In general, absent any inside information, an equity investor can expect to do better by holding a well-diversified, low-fee, passive index fund than by holding a few stocks.
This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel Statement:
In general, absent any inside information, an equity investor can expect to do better by holding a well-diversified, low-fee, passive index fund than by holding a few stocks.
This US survey examines (a) Use of the renminbi in world trade, as a reserve currency, and/or for foreign bond denomination is likely to increase substantially relative to the dollar over the next ten years; (b) Ceteris paribus, a shift to a more multi-polar international monetary system would have substantial negative implications for the US economy
This week’s IGM European Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) Breaking the “doom loop” — a negative spiral that can result when banks hold sovereign bonds and governments bail out banks — would increase the stability of European economies in the event of another financial crisis.B) Regulators should try to break the doom loop by assigning positive risk weights — in calculating banks’ capital requirements — to banks’ holdings of domestic and other Eurozone sovereign bonds.C) Breaking the doom loop would impose substantial costs on powerful political constituencies.
This European survey examines (a) A legalized and carefully regulated market for cannabis would lead to measurably higher social welfare than a system of prohibition
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel poll statements:
A) All else equal, making drugs illegal raises street prices for those drugs because suppliers require extra compensation for the risk of incarceration and other punishments.
B) The Netherlands restrictions on “soft drugs” combined with a moderate tax aimed at deterring their consumption would have lower social costs than continuing to prohibit use of those drugs as in the US. (Click here for a summary of the Netherlands restrictions.)
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) Changing federal income tax rates, or the income bases to which those rates apply, can affect federal tax revenues partly by altering people’s behavior, and thus their actual or reported incomes.B) To the extent that a given tax change might affect revenues partly by affecting national-income growth, existing research provides enough guidance to generate informative bounds on the size of any growth-driven revenue effect.C) For large proposed changes in tax rates or the tax base, official revenue forecasts provided to Congress would probably be more accurate if the CBO and JCT tried to estimate fully how the proposed tax changes would affect growth-driven revenue.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:
Using government funds to guarantee preschool education for four-year olds would yield a much lower social return than the ones achieved by the most highly touted targeted preschool initiatives.
This week’s IGM European Economic Experts Panel statements:
Selecting candidates for membership of the ECB Executive Board based primarily on nationality ahead of competence is likely to have a negative effect on the quality of monetary policy in the Eurozone.Although the central bank can never be an entirely technocratic institution, the selection process for the ECB President and members of the Executive Board is significantly worsened by intergovernmental trade-offs involving appointments to other European institutions.
This week’s European Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) The ECB's asset purchases over the past two years have reduced the threat of deflation in the euro area as a whole. B) If the economic outlook in the euro area becomes less favorable, then increasing the ECB's asset purchase program (in size or duration) would substantially increase the euro area's economic growth over the following five years.
This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:
The Council of Economic Advisors is likely to give the US president better policy advice if the Chair and Members of the CEA have published peer-reviewed economics research.
This week's US Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) The US economy would be substantially stronger today if the state and local ‘stay-at-home’ orders had been more uniform and lasted longer in the first half of the year.B) The economy will receive a substantial boost as soon as K-12 schools can be safely opened in person nationwide.
This US survey examines (a) The economic and financial sanctions against Russia are substantially limiting its ability to wage war on Ukraine; (b) In the absence of continuing flows of Western economic aid, Ukraine's wartime economy will be substantially compromised
This European survey examines (a) The economic and financial sanctions against Russia are substantially limiting its ability to wage war on Ukraine; (b) In the absence of continuing flows of Western economic aid, Ukraine's wartime economy will be substantially compromised
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel poll statements:
A) Because of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, the U.S. unemployment rate was lower at the end of 2010 than it would have been without the stimulus bill.B) Taking into account all of the ARRA's economic consequences — including the economic costs of raising taxes to pay for the spending, its effects on future spending, and any other likely future effects — the benefits of the stimulus will end up exceeding its costs.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A: Because of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, the U.S. unemployment rate was lower at the end of 2010 than it would have been without the stimulus bill. (The experts panel previously voted on this question on February 15, 2012. Those earlier results can be found here.)
B: Taking into account all of the ARRA’s economic consequences — including the economic costs of raising taxes to pay for the spending, its effects on future spending, and any other likely future effects — the benefits of the stimulus will end up exceeding its costs.
This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:
A US city hosting a big convention will enjoy a higher boost to incremental spending — holding the number of visitors and their average incomes fixed — if those visitors are auto dealers rather than economists.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel poll statement:
Public school students would receive a higher quality education if they all had the option of taking the government money (local, state, federal) currently being spent on their own education and turning that money into vouchers that they could use towards covering the costs of any private school or public school of their choice (e.g. charter schools).
In this Finance survey: Stock markets around the world have seen an increasing concentration of trades in or near the closing auction. In the US, for example, about a third of all S&P 500 stock trades are now executed in the final ten minutes of the session, up from 27% in 2021 (a) The increased concentration of trading in the final minutes of the trading day has a measurably detrimental effect on market quality; (b) Strict indexing implemented with trading at the close to avoid tracking error creates a measurable performance drag that could be avoided with more flexible passive strategies
This US survey examines: (a) Giving the President more direct influence over monetary policy would lead to substantially worse monetary policy decisions; (b) Imposing tariffs results in a substantial portion of the tariffs being borne by consumers of the country that enacts the tariffs, through price increases; (c) There is little empirical evidence that price gouging is causing high grocery prices; (d) Widespread use of price controls creates substantial economic distortions
This European survey examines (a) Without government intervention, take-up of electric vehicles will be substantially less than is desirable to reduce carbon emissions; (b) To encourage greater take-up of electric vehicles, public expenditure on infrastructure to support them (such as charging stations) is likely to be more cost-effective than providing equivalent amounts as tax credits/purchase rebates for buyers
This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) The concept of “maximum sustainable employment” is well defined enough to be used beneficially in economic policymaking.B) Right now the US economy is operating below maximum sustainable employment.
This week's IGM European Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) Subsidizing renewable energy sources is better than taxing fossil fuels, assuming the subsidy or tax would be set at levels that would reduce carbon emissions by an equivalent amount.B) Germany’s solar-energy subsidies to date have produced net social benefits for Germany.C) Solar-energy subsidies to date in Germany and other countries have produced net social benefits for the world.
This Finance survey examines (a) The benefits of the new SEC rules on private funds - which require private funds to provide transparency to their investors regarding the fees and expenses and other terms of their relationship with private fund advisers and the performance of such private funds - substantially exceed their costs; (b) The new SEC rules will have a substantially negative impact on the industry by stifling capital formation and reducing competition; (c) It is appropriate policy for the SEC to impose such rules on private funds even though the investors (limited partners) are sophisticated entities
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
In a case like the US women’s national soccer team where the revenues that they generate and their on-field performance both exceed those of the men’s team, there is no justification for lower pay.Fining companies above a certain size that fail to provide the same remuneration to men and women employees performing comparable roles would be an effective way of closing the gender pay gap.
This Finance survey examines (a) Regulation that allows state pension funds to consider environmental, social, and governance factors in investment decisions only if these factors are material for risk and expected return would make retirees measurably worse off; (b) Regulation that prevents state pension funds from considering environmental, social, and governance factors in investment decisions even if these factors are material for risk and expected return would make retirees measurably worse off
This Finance survey examines (a) Concerns about the environmental impact of companies are substantially better resolved by shareholder activism towards management than by regulations or government intervention; (b) Concerns about diversity, equality and inclusion within companies are substantially better resolved by shareholder activism towards management than by regulations or government intervention
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A: Ethanol content requirements and protectionism against imported ethanol (which includes fuel from sugarcane) raise food prices without significantly reducing carbon-dioxide emissions.B: A direct disincentive to emit carbon-dioxide, for example through a carbon tax or an emissions permit market, is more efficient than requiring the use of corn-based ethanol fuels.
This week's IGM European Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) The fiscal rules of the European Union should give more flexibility to member countries. B) The Italian budget for 2019 that the European Commission rejected in October would have increased Italy’s risk of fiscal insolvency substantially. C) If France runs a 2019 budget deficit of around 3.4% of GDP, as announced by President Macron’s government, France’s risk of fiscal insolvency will increase substantially.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) Assuming that Germany eventually agrees to backstop the debt of southern European countries, the eurozone as a whole will be better off if that bailout is unconditional, rather than accompanied by the labor market reforms and future budget controls that Germany is demanding of countries in return.B) If Germany fails to bail out the southern tier of Europe, its own economy will be hurt more — because of output and asset losses — than it would be by an unconditional bailout.C) The main reason other eurozone countries need to worry about Greek banks losing access to ECB support is because the ensuing chaos in Greece could trigger bank runs in peripheral countries.
This European survey examines (a) The EU's taxonomy for sustainable activities - a classification system that defines criteria for economic activities that are aligned with a net zero trajectory by 2050 and the broader environmental goals other than climate - is an effective way to steer greener investment and the energy transition by firms and financial institutions.
Details on the taxonomy are here: https://finance.ec.europa.eu/sustainable-finance/tools-and-standards/eu-taxonomy-sustainable-activities_en; (b) Use of the EU taxonomy for sustainable activities is likely to stifle important innovations, including in green technology; (c) On balance, use of the taxonomy in EU directives and regulation is likely to be net beneficial to European citizens.
This European survey examines (a) Greater integration of national markets for financial services, energy and telecommunications would give a measurable boost to Europe’s GDP over the next ten years; (b) The potential benefits for GDP from loosening European merger rules to allow greater consolidation within the single market would outweigh the potential harm to consumers from weaker competition
This week's IGM European Economic Experts Panel Statements:
A) The average European is better off if Europe’s competition authorities let firms merge into European champions in their sectors, even it weakens competition.B) If China and other countries use policies that create giant international firms, then the average European is better off if Europe's competition authorities let firms merge into European champions in their sectors, even it weakens competition.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A. Even if all the official-sector funding that Greece received from 2010 through August 2012 is written off, propping up Greece to buy time for the rest of Europe to prepare for Greek default has been better for citizens of the Eurozone outside of Greece than a policy that would have cut off funding sooner.B. A substantial sovereign-debt default by some combination of Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain is a necessary condition for the euro area as a whole to grow at its pre-crisis trend rate over the next three years.C. Unless there is a substantial default by some combination of Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain on their sovereign debt and commercial bank debt, plus credible reforms to prevent excessive borrowing in the future, the euro area is headed for a costly financial meltdown and a prolonged recession.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:
The recent oversubscribed debt issues of Greece and Portugal suggest that sovereign default by any euro area country is unlikely in the foreseeable future.
This week’s IGM European Economic Experts Panel statements:
A common European deposit insurance scheme, once fully implemented, would increase the stability of European economies in the event of another financial crisis.A common European deposit insurance scheme, once fully implemented, would increase the likelihood of another financial crisis in Europe.
This week’s IGM European Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) Severe lockdowns – including closing non-essential businesses and strict limitations on people’s movement – are likely to be better for the economy in the medium term than less aggressive measures.B) While national governments have responded to the crisis with substantial economic policy measures, a joint euro area fiscal response is still highly desirable.C) Given the willingness of the European Central Bank to buy sovereign bonds, including Italian bonds, without limits, there is no need for ‘coronabonds’.
This week’s IGM European Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) Right now, the central focus of fiscal policy should be on temporary measures to provide protection and promote rapid economic recovery rather than trying to advance other objectives, such as reducing debt, tackling climate change or addressing inequality.
B) Cutting taxes on firms (or delaying tax collection) will allow more of them to survive and be more effective than public spending for triggering a rapid economic recovery.
C) European recovery fund disbursements to crisis-hit countries should be primarily in the form of grants rather than loans.
D) European recovery fund disbursements to crisis-hit countries should not be made on condition of commitments to reform by recipients.
This week’s IGM European Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) At this point, there is little that the European Central Bank can do to increase or maintain output in the Eurozone.B) When the economy is operating below its potential, larger fiscal deficits are likely to increase demand and output.C) When the economy is operating below its potential and monetary policy is at the effective lower bound, fiscal policy should prioritize increasing output over decreasing public debt.
This week’s IGM European Economic Experts Panel statement:
On bids for infrastructure projects, the average European would be better off if Europe’s governments favored European firms over Chinese firms (or firms from any other country with non-profit-related geopolitical strategies) — even if it means sometimes choosing a higher-cost bidder.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel poll statement:
The Chinese government pursues policies that keep the renminbi's exchange rate vis à vis the dollar lower than it would be if the currency floated without those policies.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel poll statements:
A) The typical chief executive officer of a publicly traded corporation in the U.S. is paid more than his or her marginal contribution to the firm's value.B) Mandating that U.S. publicly listed corporations must allow shareholders to cast a non-binding vote on executive compensation was a good idea.
This Finance survey examines (a) The typical chief executive officer of a publicly traded corporation in the U.S. is paid more than his or her marginal contribution to the firm's value. (b) Mandating that U.S. publicly listed corporations must allow shareholders to cast a non-binding vote on executive compensation was a good idea.
This US survey examines (a) When evaluating the consequences of any shifts in economic policy regimes, it is essential to consider potential changes in the behavior of economic agents due to revised expectations; (b) The empirical evidence on how monetary policy affects the economy in the short run is most consistent with the assumption that economic agents form rational expectations; (c) Economic research has established that the welfare consequences of differences in countries’ growth and level of development are substantially higher than the welfare costs of business cycles
This week’s IGM European Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) Randomized control trials are a valuable tool for answering some long unsettled questions in development economics research.B) Randomized control trials are a valuable tool for making significant progress in poverty reduction.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) Randomized control trials are a valuable tool for answering some long unsettled questions in development economics research.B) Randomized control trials are a valuable tool for making significant progress in poverty reduction.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel poll statement:
Prior to the crisis, the benefits from the funding advantage that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac had by virtue of perceived government support mostly went to their shareholders, rather than into substantially lower interest rates on residential mortgages.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) By lowering bargaining costs, fast-track negotiating authority for the president makes it more likely that the U.S. can conclude major trade deals.B) Past major trade deals have benefited most Americans.
This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:
Selecting candidates for membership of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) based primarily on their political views would lead to worse monetary policy outcomes than has been the case over the last 15 years.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A: Enactment of the Senate bill to subject the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and discount window decisions to an audit by the Comptroller General of the U.S. would improve the Fed's legitimacy without hurting its decision making.B: The Fed should not reduce its purchases of mortgage-backed securities and treasurys until there is clearer evidence of strong and sustained employment growth.
This week's US Economic Experts Panel statement:
The Fed's revised strategy to focus on employment shortfalls and a more flexible interpretation of the inflation target will make little practical difference to monetary policy outcomes over the next decade.
This week's European Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) The current combination of US fiscal and monetary policy poses a serious risk of prolonged higher inflation.B) Current EU and national fiscal policy plans are likely to leave European output below potential a year from now.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:
If the fiscal changes that are planned under current US law take place next year — including Bush era tax cuts expiring, Medicare payment rates to doctors being cut, the AMT applying to many more taxpayers, and automatic cuts in defense and non-defense discretionary spending kicking in — then US real GDP growth in 2013 will be lower than it would be under the CBO's alternative fiscal scenario, in which the above changes do not occur.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:
Sustained tax and spending policies that boost consumption in ways that reduce the saving rate are likely to lower long-run living standards.
This US survey examines (a) Fiscal rules on budget deficits and public debt levels are an essential part of a sound fiscal framework; (b) Since the inception of the Stability and Growth Pact, budget deficits in Europe have been measurably lower, on average, than would have been the case without common budget rules; (c) Since the inception of the Stability and Growth Pact, the path of GDP growth in Europe has been measurably more stable than would have been the case without common budget rules
This European survey examines (a) Fiscal rules on budget deficits and public debt levels are an essential part of a sound fiscal framework; (b) Since the inception of the Stability and Growth Pact, budget deficits in Europe have been measurably lower, on average, than would have been the case without common budget rules; (c) Since the inception of the Stability and Growth Pact, the path of GDP growth in Europe has been measurably more stable than would have been the case without common budget rules
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:
Slavery in the United States was eradicated because of social and political events, not because it was an unprofitable institution for slaveholders.
This week's European Economic Experts Panel statement:
Strong competition from foreign producers is likely to encourage greater private sector expenditure on research and development in the home market.
This Finance survey examines that it seems likely that Japanese authorities intervened in the foreign exchange market recently to prop up the yen – see, for example: https://www.ft.com/content/455784ec-0465-46ee-8c73-fc5ce3e31c37. In such circumstances, intervention refers to purchases or sales of domestic or foreign currency without changing the monetary policy stance (a) Large-scale intervention by public authorities in currency markets can move exchange rates substantially (b) The effectiveness of foreign exchange interventions can last beyond one month
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:
New technology for fracking natural gas, by lowering energy costs in the United States, will make US industrial firms more cost competitive and thus significantly stimulate the growth of US merchandise exports.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:
New technology for fracking natural gas, by lowering energy costs in the United States, will make US industrial firms more cost competitive and thus significantly stimulate the growth of US merchandise exports. (The experts panel previously voted on this question on May 23, 2012. Those earlier results can be found here.)
This week’s European Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) Revising France’s labor market policies — by reducing employment protection, decentralizing labor negotiations to the firm level, and making training programs more accessible and responsive to labor demands — would, all else equal, increase productivity in France’s economy.B) Reducing employment protection would reduce the equilibrium unemployment rate in France.
This European survey examines (a) Preserving the financial viability of France's state pension system is better achieved by raising the effective retirement age than by raising contributions while working; (b) Preserving the financial viability of France's state pension system is better achieved by raising the effective retirement age than by reducing benefits once retired
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel poll statements:
A) Freer trade improves productive efficiency and offers consumers better choices, and in the long run these gains are much larger than any effects on employment.B) On average, citizens of the U.S. have been better off with the North American Free Trade Agreement than they would have been if the trade rules for the U.S., Canada and Mexico prior to NAFTA had remained in place.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel poll statements:
A) Reducing the minimum retirement age in France from 62 back to age 60, permanently, would reduce long-term French economic growth and substantially raise French debt relative to GDP over time.B) France’s overall employment is higher today because of the 35 hour work week than it would be without a limit on weekly hours.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A: Employers that discriminate in hiring will be at a competitive disadvantage, if their customers do not care about their mix of employees, compared with firms that do not discriminate.B: Rising market wages are an important reason — over and above any changes in medical technology, social norms or preferences — why family sizes have fallen over the past century in rich countries.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel poll statement:
Changes in U.S. gasoline prices over the past 10 years have predominantly been due to market factors rather than U.S. federal economic or energy policies.
This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel Statement:
Residents of big European cities would be better off, on balance, if governments did more to counter gentrification, for example by using rent and other housing subsidies, public housing investments, zoning regulations, or similar policies.
This week’s IGM European Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) Germany's current account surplus is undesirable even from a purely German viewpoint: the country would be better off if, for example, it ran a smaller primary surplus, in turn leading to a smaller current account surplus.B) The Eurozone would be in better shape if fiscal policy were more expansionary, which would allow monetary policy to be slightly less so.C) If there is a recession in the Eurozone, it will be essential to have a coordinated fiscal expansion.
This European survey examines (a) A constitutional rule that limits the size of budget deficits that governments can run as a share of GDP is an effective way to impose discipline on a country’s public finances; (b) Germany’s debt brake is a substantial constraint on vital public investment in physical/digital infrastructure and the green transition
This week's US Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) A global minimum corporate tax rate would limit the benefits to companies of shifting profits to low-tax jurisdictions without biasing where they invest.B) A stable international tax system in which the major advanced economies collect a minimum rate on corporate income is achievable.C) A global corporate tax system that is based on the location of final consumers would be more efficient than one based on the location of corporate headquarters and production facilities.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel poll statements:
A) If the US replaced its discretionary monetary policy regime with a gold standard, defining a "dollar" as a specific number of ounces of gold, the price-stability and employment outcomes would be better for the average American.B) There are many factors besides US inflation risk that influence the current dollar price of gold.
This week's IGM European Experts Panel Statement:
Voters overestimate the effect that current governments have on their economies’ concurrent economic performance.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:
In 10 years, per capita purchasing power in Greece will be higher if — rather than continuing to service its debts over the next decade and complying with the budget rules currently in place — it refuses to accept a continuation of its current troika program and explicitly defaults on its debt held by the official sector.
This week's IGM European Economic Experts Panel Statements:
A) Assuming it exits its third bailout program this summer without an immediate restructuring or other debt relief, Greece is unlikely to default on its sovereign debt in the coming decade.
B) Greece would be better off if it had decided to exit the euro between 2011 and 2015.
C) If Greece had defaulted on (or restructured) its private debt in 2010, while also staying within the euro, that combination would have been better for Greece than either exiting the euro or proceeding as it has actually done.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:
The median Greek citizen will be better off if there is a “yes” vote in the July 5 referendum on whether to accept the terms of the bailout package offered by Greece's creditors.
This European survey examines (a) A significant factor behind today’s inflation in Europe is dominant corporations in uncompetitive markets taking advantage of their market power to raise prices in order to increase their profit margins; (b) A significant factor behind today’s inflation in some sectors of the European economy is dominant corporations in uncompetitive markets taking advantage of their market power to raise prices in order to increase their profit margins; (c) A significant factor behind today’s inflation in some sectors of the European economy (both competitive and concentrated) is distortions in the aggregate economy where supply does not meet demand.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) Expanding health insurance to more people through the ACA’s public subsidies and Medicaid expansion will reduce total healthcare spending in the economy.B) Expanding health insurance to more people through the ACA’s public subsidies and Medicaid expansion will generate gains in the health and well-being of the newly insured that exceed the costs.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel poll statement:
Loosening current licensing restrictions on the range of services that nurses, physician assistants, dental hygienists and pharmacists are permitted to perform would help patients on balance, because the additional safety risks would be small compared to the decreased costs in waiting time and fees.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel poll statement:
There are no consequential distortions created by the tax preference that favors obtaining health insurance through employers.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:
Long run fiscal sustainability in the U.S. will require cuts in currently promised Medicare and Medicaid benefits and/or tax increases that include higher taxes on households with incomes below $250,000.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:
Countries that let their debt loads get high risk losing control of their own fiscal sustainability, through an adverse feedback loop in which doubts by lenders lead to higher government bond rates, which in turn make debt problems more severe.
This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) If the US significantly lowers the number of H-1B visas now, expected US tax revenues will rise materially over the next four years.B) If the US significantly lowers the number of H-1B visas now, employment for American workers will rise materially over the next four years.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:
The average US citizen would be better off if a larger number of highly educated foreign workers were legally allowed to immigrate to the US each year.
This US survey examines (a) In the aftermath of Hurricane Ian, the level of Florida’s GDP in five years will be substantially lower than it otherwise would; (b) The prospect of further costly extreme weather events means that there is a substantial chance that some private property insurance markets will no longer exist in ten years in states such as Florida; (c) Without large government subsidies, mandated flood insurance requirements would substantially reduce losses from subsequent natural disasters by encouraging economic activity to migrate from the most flood-prone areas
This week's European Economic Experts Panel statement:
People who migrated to Europe between 2015 and 2018 are likely — over the next two decades — to contribute more in taxes paid than they receive in benefits and public services.
This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:
Over the past two years, all else equal, the appeal of the US as a destination for immigrants has changed in ways that will likely decrease innovation in the US economy.
This week's IGM European Economic Experts Panel Statement:
Over the past two years, all else equal, the appeal of the US as a destination for immigrants has changed in ways that will likely decrease innovation in the US economy.
This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:
Adding new or higher import duties on products such as air conditioners, cars, and cookies — to encourage producers to make them in the US — would be a good idea.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
The balance of federal and local government support to address the economic impact of the crisis has thus far been tilted too much towards supporting firms rather than individuals.Government provision of financial support to firms to keep workers on payroll for the duration of the lockdown will make the recovery faster than if the only recourse for workers to replace income were unemployment insurance.
This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:
Ideas are nonrival, so increasing returns to scale is an essential feature of technological change in a market economy.
This week's IGM European Economic Experts Panel statement:
Ideas are nonrival, so increasing returns to scale is an essential feature of technological change in a market economy.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:
The annual indexing of Social Security benefits to increases in the consumer price index for urban wage earners and clerical workers (the CPI-W) leads to higher benefits than would be required to compensate recipients for genuine cost-of-living increases.
This Finance survey examines (a) The SEC’s proposed new rule for stock orders from individual investors is likely to be effective in giving those investors better prices on their trades on average; (b) The new rule would improve the overall operation of the stock market
This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:
The ratio of the 90th to the 10th percentile of the US income distribution has been unaffected by the Federal Reserve’s unconventional monetary policies since the financial crisis.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel poll statement:
One of the leading reasons for rising U.S. income inequality over the past three decades is that technological change has affected workers with some skill sets differently than others.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) With the economy in lockdown, low-income workers who are above the poverty line will suffer a relatively bigger hit to their incomes than those further up the distribution (even accounting for all government support schemes).B) With the economy in lockdown, existing gaps in access to quality education between high- and low-income households will be exacerbated.C) The mortality impact of Covid-19 is likely to fall disproportionately on disadvantaged socio-economic groups.
This week’s IGM European Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) Even with the support policies implemented by European governments in response to the crisis, low-income workers will suffer a relatively bigger hit to their incomes than those further up the distribution.
B) With schools across Europe closed in the lockdown, existing gaps in access to quality education between high- and low-income households will be exacerbated.
C) Combating the effects of the pandemic on inequality should be a priority for policy interventions.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) Rising inequality is straining the health of liberal democracy.B) Enacting more redistributive expenditures and policies would be likely to limit the rise of populism.C) Governments should allocate more resources to policies that would be likely to limit the rise of populism, even if it means higher public debt or lower public spending in other areas.
This week’s IGM European Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) Rising inequality is straining the health of liberal democracy.B) Enacting more redistributive expenditures and policies would be likely to limit the rise of populism in Europe.C) European governments should allocate more resources to policies that would be likely to limit the rise of populism in Europe, even if it means higher public debt or lower public spending in other areas.
This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) If the Fed changed its inflation target from 2% to 4%, the long-run costs of inflation for households would be essentially unchanged.B) Raising the inflation target to 4% would make it possible for the Fed to lower rates by a greater amount in a future recession.
This Finance survey examines (a) By issuing inflation-indexed bonds, and thereby providing a long-term real safe asset for pension funds and retirement savers, governments can make a substantial contribution to social welfare; (b) Issuance of inflation-indexed bonds substantially helps government commit to a responsible fiscal and monetary policy
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A: Because the US has underspent on new projects, maintenance, or both, the federal government has an opportunity to increase average incomes by spending more on roads, railways, bridges and airports.
B: Past experience of public spending and political economy suggests that if the government spent more on roads, railways, bridges and airports, many of the projects would have low or negative returns.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A: Because the US has underspent on new projects, maintenance, or both, the federal government has an opportunity to increase average incomes by spending more on roads, railways, bridges and airports. (The experts panel previously voted on this question on May 23, 2013. Those earlier results can be found here.)B: Past experience of public spending and political economy suggests that if the government spent more on roads, railways, bridges and airports, many of the projects would have low or negative returns. (The experts panel previously voted on this question on May 23, 2013. Those earlier results can be found here.)
This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel Statements:
A) The US should increase spending now on roads, railways, bridges and airports (including new projects, maintenance or both).B) The advisability of increasing federal spending on roads, railways, bridges and airports is independent of whether the US also enacts tax cuts that substantially lower revenues.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:
Future innovations worldwide will not be transformational enough to promote sustained per-capita economic growth rates in the U.S. and western Europe over the next century as high as those over the past 150 years.
This US survey examines (a) The institutions of society - such as constitutions, laws, judiciaries, and property rights - substantially shape economic decisions, policies, and outcomes; (b) On average and over the long term, democracies deliver substantially better economic growth than other forms of government; (c) Countries where democracy and the rule of law are weakened are likely to experience measurable damage to their economic performance
This European survey examines (a) The institutions of society - such as constitutions, laws, judiciaries, and property rights - substantially shape economic decisions, policies, and outcomes; (b) On average and over the long term, democracies deliver substantially better economic growth than other forms of government; (c) Countries where democracy and the rule of law are weakened are likely to experience measurable damage to their economic performance
This week's US Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) In an economy open to capital flows, monetary policy can only be effective with a floating exchange rate.B) For emerging and developing economies open to the world capital market, a flexible exchange rate confers little advantage over a pegged exchange rate in terms of economic stability.C) The key feature making the US a more natural optimum currency area than the euro area is higher labor mobility.
This week's European Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) Under a fixed exchange rate and fully liberalized capital flows, a country loses domestic control of monetary policy.B) For emerging and developing economies open to the world capital market, a flexible exchange rate confers little advantage over a pegged exchange rate in terms of economic stability.C) The key feature making the US a more natural optimum currency area than the euro area is higher labor mobility.
This week's European IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) Setting the EU rules aside, and assuming it would take 2.5% of Italy’s GDP to recapitalize its banks, the Italian government would improve financial stability in Europe if it injected this amount of public funds into its banks.B) If Italy were to inject public funds into its banks without imposing losses on at least some claimants, an important cost would be the effect on future incentives (economic or political) in Europe.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel poll statements:
A) Credible assumptions for inflation, GDP growth and primary budget deficits in Italy imply that either the Debt-to-GDP ratio in Italy would increase sharply if Italian interest rates on 10-year government debt remained at the November 30 level of around 7 percent or Italy would lose access to the bond market.
B) Absent outside help to deal with runs, such as a pledge of fiscal support from Germany or an unlimited commitment by the ECB to buy bonds, there is no spending-and-tax plan Italy can announce that would be credible enough to hold its interest rates low enough to stabilize its Debt-to-GDP ratio.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:
The persistent deflation in Japan since 1997 could have been avoided had the Bank of Japan followed different monetary policies.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) Employment growth is currently constrained more by firms' lack of interest in hiring than people’s willingness to work at prevailing wages.B) Reducing supplemental levels of unemployment benefits so that no workers receive more than a 100% replacement rate would be a more effective way to balance incentives and income support than simply stopping the supplement at the end of this month.C) A well-designed unemployment insurance system would tie federal contributions to states on the basis of each state’s economic and public health conditions.
This US survey examines (a) An $8 cap on late fees for credit cards, as proposed by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, would lead to a substantial reduction in overall costs for consumers; (b) Requiring that all credit card fees and interest rates be transparent, prominently displayed, and easily searchable online would lead to a substantial reduction in overall costs for consumers; (c) Consumers would be measurably better off if efforts to reduce the impact of so-called ‘junk fees’ across the economy concentrated on making fees more transparent than on capping specific types of fees
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) A cut in federal income tax rates in the US right now would lead to higher GDP within five years than without the tax cut.B) A cut in federal income tax rates in the US right now would raise taxable income enough so that the annual total tax revenue would be higher within five years than without the tax cut.
Shifting the burden of municipal property taxes towards land and away from improvements such as buildings - as proposed in the Detroit land value tax plan - will enhance the incentives for owners to develop their land and thereby give a substantial boost to local economic growth over a ten-year horizon.
This US survey examines (a) Imposing stronger legal liability on online platforms for content posted by users would substantially reduce the amount of user-generated content available on those platforms; (b) Imposing stronger legal liability on online platforms for content posted by users would substantially damage those platforms’ advertising businesses; (c) Imposing stronger legal liability on online platforms for content posted by users would substantially reduce the amount of misinformation and disinformation present on those platforms
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:
There is a social value to having institutions that issue liquid liabilities that are backed by illiquid assets.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) Giving tax incentives to specific firms to locate operations in a city or state typically generates local benefits that outweigh the costs to the city and/or state providing the incentives.B) The US as a whole benefits when cities or states compete with each other by giving tax incentives to firms to locate operations in their jurisdictions.
This week's IGM European Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) Giving tax incentives to specific firms to locate operations in a country typically generates domestic benefits that outweigh the costs to the country providing the incentives.B) Europe as a whole benefits when European cities or countries compete with each other by giving tax incentives to firms to locate operations in their jurisdictions.
This Finance survey examines: (a) September 2023 was the 25th anniversary of the collapse of Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM). In response to LTCM's troubles, the Federal Reserve orchestrated a multi-billion dollar rescue package by a consortium of banks and it cut the Federal funds rate target by 75 basis points within six weeks. The hedge fund sector's contribution to systemic risk is substantially lower today than at the time of LTCM; (b) Financial market participants' expectation that the Fed will aggressively ease monetary policy in response to financial market dislocations is a substantial source of financial instability.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A: The average US citizen would be better off if a larger number of low-skilled foreign workers were legally allowed to enter the US each year.B: Unless they were compensated by others, many low-skilled American workers would be substantially worse off if a larger number of low-skilled foreign workers were legally allowed to enter the US each year.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
a) Replacing the current US health insurance system (including employer-based health insurance, ACA exchange policies, and Medicaid) with universal ‘Medicare for All’ (mandatory enrollment in a modified version of the existing traditional Medicare program with drug coverage and no cost-sharing of any form, and current Medicare reimbursement rates) funded by federal taxes would lead to improved access to healthcare for a meaningful subset of the population.b) Replacing the current US health insurance system as outlined in a) would lead to longer waiting times for healthcare for a meaningful subset of the population.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) Replacing the current US health insurance system (including employer-based health insurance, ACA exchange policies, and Medicaid) with universal ‘Medicare for All’ (mandatory enrollment in a modified version of the existing traditional Medicare program with drug coverage and no cost-sharing of any form, and current Medicare reimbursement rates) funded by federal taxes would lead to lower aggregate medical debt among patients.B) Replacing the current US health insurance system as outlined in a) would lead to lower aggregate innovation in the pharmaceutical industry.C) Replacing the current US health insurance system as outlined in a) would improve health outcomes for the majority of the population.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A: The federal government would make the average U.S. citizen better off by using policies that directly focus more on increasing manufacturing employment than employment in other sectors.B: Because firms and inventors do not capture the full returns from research and development, the government would increase the average well-being of Americans (and potentially of others too) by favoring R&D using the tax code.
This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel Statement:
If a small number of firms have a large combined market share in a properly defined market, it is strong evidence that those firms have substantial market power.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A: Consider one of two proposals for restraining future Medicare spending, each by the same amount: The method that President Obama enacted in the Affordable Care Act — reducing Medicare-related payments to private insurers and altering the payment system for doctors and hospitals — imposes risks on future Medicare patients because over time the supply of doctors, hospitals and insurers willing to offer them health services may decline in response to restrained payments.B: Consider the other of two proposals for restraining future Medicare spending, each by the same amount: The method that Governor Romney advocates — giving future seniors a fixed payment for premiums and letting private insurers compete with Medicare — imposes risks on future Medicare patients because competition may not be powerful to enough to offer future seniors the same quality of care that is currently promised without supplementing their premium support.
This US survey examines (a) If it is implemented, the proposed increase in the tax rate on earned and business income above $400,000 in the Biden budget, along with other proposed changes to Medicare, would extend the solvency of the Medicare program for the next 25 years; (b) If it is implemented, the proposed reform of Medicare drug negotiations in the Biden budget is likely to lead to a substantial reduction in drug prices for beneficiaries; (c) If it is implemented, the proposed reform of Medicare drug negotiations in the Biden budget is likely to lead to a substantial reduction in the development of beneficial new drugs
This week's IGM European Economics Experts Panel statements:
A) Freer movement of people to live and work across borders within Europe has made the average western European citizen better off since the 1980s.B) Freer movement of people to live and work across borders within Europe has made many low-skilled western European citizens worse off since the 1980s.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A: Raising the federal minimum wage to $9 per hour would make it noticeably harder for low-skilled workers to find employment.B: The distortionary costs of raising the federal minimum wage to $9 per hour and indexing it to inflation are sufficiently small compared with the benefits to low-skilled workers who can find employment that this would be a desirable policy.
This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:
The biggest reason for the measured slowdown in US productivity growth since the mid-2000s is that productivity increases have gone mismeasured, including new and better products and services that have been insufficiently captured by real output data.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
(a) Countries that borrow in their own currency should not worry about government deficits because they can always create money to finance their debt.(b) Countries that borrow in their own currency can finance as much real government spending as they want by creating money.
This Finance survey examines that Harry Markowitz, the Nobel Prize-winning pioneer of modern portfolio theory, passed away earlier this year: https://afajof.org/news/in-memoriam-harry-markowitz-past-president-of-the-american-finance-association-1927-2023/ (a) Application of the principles of modern portfolio theory allows investors in practice to achieve substantial improvements in the risk-expected return trade-off relative to naive strategies such as equal-weighting that do not take account of return covariances; (b) A continued fall in commercial real estate valuations would trigger another round of banking panic
This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel poll statement:
All else equal, the Fed's new plan to increase the maturity of its Treasury holdings will boost expected real GDP growth for calendar year 2012 by at least one percentage point.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A. The way in which money market funds normally trade – at one dollar per share, even though the per-share value of the assets backing them varies over time – made them vulnerable to a run in 2008 before they received taxpayer guarantees.B. Taxpayers would be better protected if each money market fund in the U.S. were instead required to trade at its floating net asset value.C. In the absence of floating net asset values, taxpayers would be better protected if each money market fund in the U.S. were required to set aside capital to protect against losses while holding back a portion of shareholders' cash for a time when they seek to withdraw all of their money.
This US survey examines (a) The market power of event ticket-selling intermediaries leads to consumers who ultimately attend the events paying substantially more and producers receiving substantially less than they would if the intermediary sector were more competitive; (b) The present system of initial ticket selling and reselling through secondary ticket intermediaries often leads to large transfers between different groups of ticket buyers that could be partially captured by artists through higher initial ticket prices; (c) Artists set prices at less than market-clearing levels in an effort to provide access for fans with modest incomes
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:
Behavior in many complex and seemingly intractable strategic settings can be understood more clearly by working out what each party in the game will choose to do if they realize that the other parties will be solving the same problem. This insight has helped us understand behavior as diverse as military conflicts, price setting by competing firms and penalty kicking in soccer.
This US survey examines: (a) Capping annual rent increases by corporate landlords at 5%, as proposed by President Biden, would make middle-income Americans substantially better off over the next ten years; (b) Capping annual rent increases at 5%, as proposed by President Biden, would substantially reduce the amount of available apartments for rent over the next ten years; (c) Capping annual rent increases at 5%, as proposed by President Biden, would substantially reduce US income inequality over the next ten years
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:
Allowing Internet service providers to charge content companies for access to the ISPs' customers would provide net benefits to consumers.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:
Considering both distributional effects and changes in efficiency, it is a good idea to let companies that send video or other content to consumers pay more to Internet service providers for the right to send that traffic using faster or higher quality service.
This Finance survey examines (a) The new liquidity fee will substantially reduce the likelihood of runs on MMFs; (b) The new liquidity fee will cause a substantial shift of assets under management from institutional prime and tax-exempt funds to government MMFs (which are exempt from the fees)
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) Even if it is temporary, the ban on visas for skilled workers, including researchers, will weaken US leadership in STEM and R&D.B) Significantly fewer top foreign students will be attracted to US universities as a result of increased restrictions on visas for skilled workers.C) If increased restrictions on visas for skilled workers are made permanent, a noticeable share of research activities by US and foreign companies will move abroad.
This US survey examines (a) Non-bank financial intermediaries pose a substantial threat to financial stability; (b) Regulating the leverage and liquidity of non-bank financial intermediaries would substantially improve financial stability; (c) Given current regulations, non-bank financial intermediaries should not have access to central bank support
This European survey examines (a) Non-bank financial intermediaries pose a substantial threat to financial stability; (b) Regulating the leverage and liquidity of non-bank financial intermediaries would substantially improve financial stability; (c) Given current regulations, non-bank financial intermediaries should not have access to central bank support
This US survey examines (a) Prohibiting firms from imposing employment contract provisions that prevent workers from moving to a competitor or starting a competing business would lead to a substantial increase in wages in the affected industries; (b) A ban on non-compete clauses would lead to a measurable increase in innovation; (c) A ban on non-compete clauses would lead to a measurable reduction in firms’ investment in staff training
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:
Taxes or bans on large bottles of soft drinks containing sugar are not likely to have a significant effect on obesity rates because people will substitute towards consuming excessive calories in other ways.
This week's European Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) The ECB should aim to achieve an inflation rate that averages 2% over time.B) The ECB should take account of the environmental implications of its policy decisions.C) The objectives set for the ECB by Treaty should make maximum sustainable employment of equal importance as price stability.
This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel Statement:
Restricting eligibility for senior government economic-policy posts by requiring a graduate degree in economics would reduce the chances for good public policy outcomes.
This week's IGM US statements are:
A) A price cap imposed by the G7/EU countries on purchases of Russian oil and oil-related products (and which applies to all importers of Russian oil using Western trade infrastructure, shipping, and insurance) would be an effective measure to reduce the flow of revenues to Russia.B) The oil price cap imposed by the G7/EU countries will not have a substantial effect on the world oil price (such as the Brent crude benchmark).
This week's IGM US statements are:
A) A price cap imposed by the G7/EU countries on purchases of Russian oil and oil-related products (and which applies to all importers of Russian oil using Western trade infrastructure, shipping, and insurance) would be an effective measure to reduce the flow of revenues to Russia.B) The oil price cap imposed by the G7/EU countries will not have a substantial effect on the world oil price (such as the Brent crude benchmark).
This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:
Large movements in monthly oil prices, either up or down, are driven primarily by speculators, as opposed to changes in the current (and planned) supply or demand for oil.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:
The recent decline in oil prices will promote higher real GDP in the US over the next couple of years.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:
Subjecting online sales from out-of-state vendors to the same retail sales taxes imposed on in-state sales would raise more tax revenue in the states making this change while reducing the pro-online bias of current policy.
This week's US Economic Experts Panel statement:
The current combination of US fiscal and monetary policy poses a serious risk of prolonged higher inflation.
This Finance survey examines (a) The amount of passively invested funds has reached levels at which it has a measurable detrimental effect on market efficiency.
This Finance survey examines: Regulator Probes BlackRock and Vanguard Over Huge Stakes in U.S. Banks – The WSJ reports that ‘The FDIC is scrutinizing whether the index-fund giants are sticking to passive roles when it comes to their investments in U.S. banks.' (a) The exemption of passive asset managers from banking rules - such as needing permission when they acquire shares above the 10% threshold - generates measurable risks to the accomplishment of the FDIC's mission
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A: All else equal, Patent Assertion Entities — which specialize in acquiring and asserting patents and are popularly known as “patent trolls" — promote innovation in the U.S.B: Within the software industry, the US patent system makes consumers better off than they would be in the absence of patents.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:
A ban on very short-term loans at very high annualized interest rates (aka payday lending) would make most people who use or might use them better off.
This week's US Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) Our understanding of labor productivity has been much enhanced by accounting for monetary and promotion-based incentives within firms and related selection effects.B) Large salaries for senior business executives are less a reflection of an individual’s current contribution to a firm’s overall performance than a ‘prize’ for those who put in the effort to achieve one of the top positions.
This week's European Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) Our understanding of labor productivity has been much enhanced by accounting for monetary and promotion-based incentives within firms and related selection effects.B) Large salaries for senior business executives are less a reflection of an individual’s current contribution to a firm’s overall performance than a ‘prize’ for those who put in the effort to achieve one of the top positions.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:
The most powerful force pushing towards greater wealth inequality in the US since the 1970s is the gap between the after-tax return on capital and the economic growth rate.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) A comprehensive policy response to the coronavirus will involve tolerating a very large contraction in economic activity until the spread of infections has dropped significantly.B) Abandoning severe lockdowns at a time when the likelihood of a resurgence in infections remains high will lead to greater total economic damage than sustaining the lockdowns to eliminate the resurgence risk.C) Optimally, the government would invest more than it is currently doing in expanding treatment capacity through steps such as building temporary hospitals, accelerating testing, making more masks and ventilators, and providing financial incentives for the production of a successful vaccine.
This US survey examines (a) The response to recent bank failures should be to: Expand central banks’ lender of last resort facilities for banks; (b) The response to recent bank failures should be to: Substantially increase the limit on bank deposit insurance; (c) The response to recent bank failures should be to: Substantially increase bank capital requirements; (d) The response to recent bank failures should be to: Use market values of all traded assets to compute banks’ regulatory capital
This European survey examines (a) The response to recent bank failures should be to: Expand central banks’ lender of last resort facilities for banks; (b) The response to recent bank failures should be to: Substantially increase the limit on bank deposit insurance; (c) The response to recent bank failures should be to: Substantially increase bank capital requirements; (d) The response to recent bank failures should be to: Use market values of all traded assets to compute banks’ regulatory capital
This week’s IGM European Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) Political conflict plays a key role in shaping economic decisions, policies and outcomes.
B) Most European countries have larger social welfare systems than the United States in part because the latter is more heterogeneous by race and ethnicity.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) Political conflict plays a key role in shaping economic decisions, policies and outcomes.B) The US has a smaller social welfare system than other rich countries in part because it is more heterogeneous by race and ethnicity.
This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) The association between health and economic growth in poor countries primarily involves faster growth generating better health, rather than the other way around.B) The decline in the fraction of people with incomes under, say, $1 per day is a good measure of whether well-being is improving amount low-income populations.
This US survey examines (a) Allowing Medicare to negotiate prices with pharmaceutical companies will lead to a substantial reduction in the costs of prescription drugs for US retirees; (b) Allowing imports of medicines from Canada will lead to a substantial reduction in the costs of prescription drugs for US consumers without compromising safety
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:
Claims by incumbent presidents and challengers about how many private-sector jobs can be created in a four-year period by sector-level or other targeted policies should be viewed as rough guesses, because overall macroeconomic conditions drive aggregate employment in ways that dominate any net effects of polices that focus on specific industries or households.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel poll statement:
Connecticut should pass its Senate Bill 60, which states that during a “severe weather event emergency, no person within the chain of distribution of consumer goods and services shall sell or offer to sell consumer goods or services for a price that is unconscionably excessive.”
This week’s IGM European Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) Clearing the market for surgical face masks using prices is detrimental to the public good.
B) Laws to prevent high prices for essential goods in short supply in a crisis would raise social welfare.
C) Governments should buy essential medical supplies at what would have been the market price and redistribute according to need rather than ability to pay.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) Clearing the market for surgical face masks using prices is detrimental to the public good.B) Laws to prevent high prices for essential goods in short supply in a crisis would raise social welfare.C) Governments should buy essential medical supplies at what would have been the market price and redistribute according to need rather than ability to pay.
This week's US Economic Experts Panel statements:
Sound policy would involve increasing significantly the currently near-zero price of emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases.
This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) There is no perfect voting system. That is, no voting system can ensure that the winner will be the person who best represents voters’ wishes, including how intensely they favor or disfavor each candidate. B) One clear defect of a winner-take-all election with 3 or more candidates, and with each voter choosing only one candidate, is that a candidate who is strongly disliked by a majority, but strongly liked by a minority, can beat a candidate who is liked by a majority and disliked by relatively few.
This Finance survey examines (a) The large increase in the market for private credit as a substitute for bank finance substantially reduces systemic risk; (b) The growth in private credit is substantially higher because of regulations that disincentivize banks from lending to below investment grade private businesses
This week's IGM European Economic Experts Panel statement:
On the whole, the shift from state to private ownership of many industrial assets in central and eastern European countries after communism has increased productivity in those countries.
This Finance survey examines (a) Although the reported volatility of asset values in private markets (private equity, buyouts, and venture capital) is lower than that of comparable assets in public markets, their true volatility is broadly similar or greater; (b) Since the global financial crisis, the realized returns on private equities have measurably exceeded the returns on public equities
This European survey examines (a) It is best for society if the management of publicly traded corporations only considers the impact of their decisions on customers, employees, and community members to the extent that these effects feedback to affect shareholder wealth; (b) The typical chief executive officer of a publicly traded corporation is paid more than his or her marginal contribution to the firm's value
This week’s IGM European Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) Overall, public spending on the arts in Europe creates benefits that exceed the deadweight loss caused by taxation to fund it.B) Additional public spending on the arts in Europe would create incremental benefits that exceed the deadweight loss caused by taxation to fund it.
This US survey examines (a) The lower willingness of private firms to go public, combined with the increased number of publicly traded firms being taken private over the last 25 years, is measurably net negative for economic growth; (b) All else equal, reducing regulatory barriers (including reporting requirements such as Sarbanes Oxley 404) to public listing would substantially increase the share of publicly traded firms in the economy; (c) The lack of transparency about unlisted private firms' financial performance substantially hinders the efficiency of the allocation of capital
This Finance survey examines (a) The lower willingness of private firms to go public, combined with the increased number of publicly traded firms being taken private over the last 25 years, is measurably net negative for economic growth; (b) All else equal, reducing regulatory barriers (including reporting requirements such as Sarbanes Oxley 404) to public listing would substantially increase the share of publicly traded firms in the economy; (c) The lack of transparency about unlisted private firms' financial performance substantially hinders the efficiency of the allocation of capital
This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A: Even if the third round of quantitative easing that the Fed recently announced increases real GDP growth over the next two years, the increase will be inconsequential.B: Even if the third round of quantitative easing that the Fed recently announced increases annual consumer price inflation over the next five years, the increase will be inconsequential.C: Even if inflationary pressures rise substantially as a result of quantitative easing and low interest rates, the Federal Reserve has ample tools to rein inflation back in if it chooses to do so.
This Finance survey examines (a) The Federal Reserve has begun quantitative tightening (QT) to reduce the size of its balance sheet. Fed holdings of Treasury securities have declined by $800 billion relative to the March 2020 peak. The Fed currently holds $4.9 trillion of Treasury securities, significantly larger than the $2.5 trillion holdings prior to the Covid pandemic. A reduction in Fed holdings of Treasury securities measurably increases the interest rate on long-term U.S. Treasury bonds (b) A reduction in Fed holdings of Treasury securities measurably increases volatility in the Treasury market
This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) Letting publicly traded US firms report earnings annually rather than quarterly would lead their executives to place more weight on long-term issues in their investments and other decisions.
B) A switch from quarterly to annual earnings reports would, on net, benefit shareholders.
This week's IGM European Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) Letting publicly traded European firms report earnings annually rather than quarterly would lead their executives to place more weight on long-term issues in their investments and other decisions.B) A switch from quarterly to annual earnings reports would, on net, benefit shareholders of European firms.
This Finance survey examines (a) Letting publicly traded firms report earnings annually rather than quarterly would lead their executives to place more weight on long-term issues in their investments and other decisions; (b) A switch from quarterly to annual earnings reports would, on net, benefit shareholders
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:
The Fed should wait until its preferred measure of inflation (Core PCE) is clearly rising — and not just forecast to rise — before it begins hiking interest rates.
This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:
Rather than using second-round runoffs to settle elections in which no candidate wins a first-round majority, it would be better to use ranked-choice voting (as in the state of Maine) in which voters are encouraged to rank all of the candidates.
This week's IGM European Economic Experts Panel statement:
The influx of refugees into Germany beginning in the summer of 2015 will generate net economic benefits for German citizens over the succeeding decade.
This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel Statement:
The influx of refugees into Germany beginning in the summer of 2015 will generate net economic benefits for German citizens over the succeeding decade.
This US survey examines: (a) Antitrust investigations of the dominant firms in artificial intelligence are likely to lead to substantially lower prices of AI products and services for businesses and consumers; (b) Antitrust investigations of the dominant firms in artificial intelligence are likely to promote greater competition and innovation in AI; (c) Potential harms from artificial intelligence are better assessed by market deployment rather than seeking to slow the pace of AI research and implementation
This European survey examines (a) US antitrust investigations of the dominant firms in artificial intelligence are warranted by the need to foster competition and innovation in the technologies; b) Seeking to slow the pace of artificial intelligence use and implementation would be a more effective means of assessing potential harms from the technologies than market deployment and ex post assessment
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel poll statement:
Local ordinances that limit rent increases for some rental housing units, such as in New York and San Francisco, have had a positive impact over the past three decades on the amount and quality of broadly affordable rental housing in cities that have used them.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) Lowering the effective marginal tax rate on US corporations’ repatriated profits for a year would boost US capital investment significantly.B) Permanently lowering the effective marginal tax rate on US corporations’ repatriated profits, such as by moving to a territorial-based tax system, would boost US capital investment significantly.
This week’s IGM European Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) Europeans would benefit more from an extra €1 billion of public R&D spent through existing (public) channels than from an extra €1 billion of private R&D spent through existing (private) channels, all else equal.B) Europeans would benefit more from an extra €1 billion of public medical research spent through existing (public) channels than from an extra €1 billion of private medical research spent through existing (private) channels, all else equal.
This European survey examines (a) The carbon border adjustment mechanism will ensure that the European Union’s green objectives are not undermined by the relocation of EU production in the sectors under the mechanism to non-EU countries with less ambitious climate policies (‘carbon leakage'); (b) To the extent that the carbon border adjustment mechanism is effective in reducing emissions and carbon leakage, it will impose substantial costs on the economies of poorer countries
This US survey examines (a) Constraints on the anti-competitive behavior of dominant firms in the digital economy can in principle be effectively implemented using the existing tools of competition policy and antitrust enforcement; (b) The effectiveness of existing antitrust regimes in constraining anti-competitive behavior is substantially limited by the inadequacy of the resources available to competition and regulatory agencies relative to the dominant firms of the digital economy; (c) Constraints on the anti-competitive behavior of dominant firms in the digital economy would be more effectively implemented than at present with ex-ante regulation such as Europe's Digital Markets Act and other forms of public utility regulation. Details on Digital Markets Act here: https://digital-markets-act.ec.europa.eu/index_en
This European survey examines (a) Constraints on the anti-competitive behavior of dominant firms in the digital economy can in principle be effectively implemented using the existing tools of competition policy and antitrust enforcement; (b) The effectiveness of existing antitrust regimes in constraining anti-competitive behavior is substantially limited by the inadequacy of the resources available to competition and regulatory agencies relative to the dominant firms of the digital economy; (c) Constraints on the anti-competitive behavior of dominant firms in the digital economy would be more effectively implemented than at present with ex-ante regulation such as Europe's Digital Markets Act and other forms of public utility regulation. Details on Digital Markets Act here: https://digital-markets-act.ec.europa.eu/index_en
This Finance survey examines that Retail investors account for a large share of global wealth, but a small share in private equity holdings. (see link: https://bain.com/insights/why-private-equity-is-targeting-individual-investors-global-private-equity-report-2023/ (a) A reduction in the barriers to all retail investors investing in private equity funds - notably regulatory restrictions on investor wealth/income and on liquidity - would substantially improve household welfare.
This week's IGM European Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) Consumers will be better off, on balance, if European cities treat firms that provide ride-sharing platforms (such as Uber) as substantively different from taxi firms, and thus not necessarily warranting the same regulation.B) Assuming that taxi and ride-sharing companies were treated as substantively similar — including requirements that they operate on an equal footing regarding safety, insurance and taxation — letting ride-sharing services compete without restrictions on prices or routes would raise consumer welfare.C) Regardless of how ride-sharing services are treated, existing regulations for traditional taxi firms in many European cities harm consumers by limiting competition.
This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel Statements:
A. Capping the number of ride-sharing drivers as is being discussed in New York City, Chicago and London will make the average resident in that city worse off.B. To achieve a given level of congestion, it would be better to use taxes for driving that vary based on the level of congestion, rather than limiting the number of ride-sharing vehicles.
This week's IGM European Experts Panel statements:
A) Capping the number of ride-sharing drivers as is being discussed in New York City, Chicago, and London will make the average resident in that city worse off.B) To achieve a given level of congestion, it would be better to use taxes for driving that vary based on the level of congestion, rather than limiting the number of ride-sharing vehicles.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A: Advancing automation has not historically reduced employment in the United States.B: Information technology and automation are a central reason why median wages have been stagnant in the US over the past decade, despite rising productivity.
This week's IGM European Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) Holding labor market institutions and job training fixed, rising use of robots and artificial intelligence is likely to increase substantially the number of workers in advanced countries who are unemployed for long periods.B) Rising use of robots and artificial intelligence in advanced countries is likely to create benefits large enough that they could be used to compensate those workers who are substantially negatively affected for their lost wages.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) Holding labor market institutions and job training fixed, rising use of robots and artificial intelligence is likely to increase substantially the number of workers in advanced countries who are unemployed for long periods.B) Rising use of robots and artificial intelligence in advanced countries is likely to create benefits large enough that they could be used to compensate those workers who are substantially negatively affected for their lost wages.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:
Past experience suggests that economic sanctions do little to deter the target countries from their course of action.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:
An effective way to increase savings rates of employees whose firms have defined contribution plans is to combine automatic enrollment in those plans and periodic automatic increases in their contributions (with the ability to opt out of either).
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel poll statements:
A) If public school students had the option of taking the government money (local, state, federal) currently being spent on their own education and turning that money into vouchers that they could use towards covering the costs of any private school or public school of their choice (e.g. charter schools), most would be better off.B) The main drawback to allowing all public school students to take the government money (local, state, federal) currently being spent on their own education and turning that money into vouchers that they could use towards covering the costs of any private school or public school of their choice (e.g. charter schools) would be that some students would not make an active choice and would be left with much worse peers and a weaker school.
This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) Allowing US-based employers to hire many more immigrants with advanced degrees in science or engineering would lower (at least temporarily) the premium earned by current American workers with similar degrees.B) Allowing US-based employers to hire many more immigrants with advanced degrees in science or engineering would raise per capita income in the US over time.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:
Although there are many issues for Scotland’s voters to consider, one consequence of separating from the rest of the UK would be greater macroeconomic instability for Scotland for many years.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel poll statement:
The former head of the Transportation Security Administration is correct in arguing that randomizing airport “security procedures encountered by passengers (additional upper-torso pat-downs, a thorough bag search, a swab test of carry-ons, etc.), while not subjecting everyone to the full gamut" would make it "much harder for terrorists to learn how to evade security procedures."
This week's US Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) Bans on the short selling of financial securities, such as stocks and government bonds, would lead to prices that are further, on average, from their fundamental values.B) Requiring investors to disclose short positions in a stock at the equivalent threshold as they are required to do for long positions would improve the accuracy of stock prices.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel poll statement:
Bans on the short selling of financial securities, such as stocks and government bonds, lead to prices that are further, on average, from their fundamental values.
This week's European Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) Allowing short selling of financial securities, such as stocks and government bonds, leads to prices that, on average, are closer to their fundamental values.
B) Requiring investors to disclose short positions in a stock at the equivalent threshold as they are required to do for long positions would result in significantly less short selling.
C) Regulatory restrictions on short selling - such as no naked shorts, temporary bans in times of crisis - make it difficult for optimists and pessimists to have equal influence on asset prices.
This Finance survey examines (a) Allowing short selling of financial securities, such as stocks and government bonds, leads to prices that, on average, are closer to their fundamental values; (b) When short sellers start to establish substantial short positions in a stock, the stock is likely to have been overvalued; (c) Requiring investors to disclose short positions in a stock at the equivalent threshold as they are required to do for long positions would improve the informativeness of stock prices
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:
The federal government would make the average U.S. citizen better off by using policies that directly focus more on increasing small business growth than growth of economic output overall.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) Current institutional arrangements mean that small firms will be able to renegotiate with creditors and landlords to avoid bankruptcy during the lockdown.B) A program that allows small businesses to skip rent and utilities during the lockdown, but repay them slowly over time afterwards, would be a net benefit to the economy.
This week's IGM European Economic Experts Panel Statement(s):
A) To the extent that public corporations pursue social and environmental initiatives, they tend to achieve higher risk-adjusted (private) returns than otherwise similar corporations that pursue such initiatives less. B) To the extent that Norway’s global government pension fund makes investments for social and environmental objectives — apart from investments that would bring the highest expected risk-adjusted returns — it improves the welfare of Norwegians.
This US survey examines (a) The Trustees of the U.S. Social Security system currently estimate that the OASI trust fund will be exhausted in 2033, after which substantial benefit cuts are mandated without a change in the law. The response to the impending exhaustion of the OASI trust fund is likely to rely more on general government borrowing than on increases in social security taxes or reductions in social security benefits; (b) As in the most recent major change in Social Security finances (adopted in 1983), the most prudent way to address the impending exhaustion of the OASI trust fund would feature a balanced combination of payroll tax increases and reductions in the benefits received for any given retirement age
This US survey examines (a) Establishing a domestic sovereign wealth fund to invest in infrastructure, emerging technologies, and/or strategic sectors would bring substantial benefits to the US economy over a ten-year horizon; (b) The typical advanced economy could substantially boost growth by establishing a sovereign wealth fund to invest in infrastructure, emerging technologies, and/or strategic sectors; (c) For a typical advanced economy, establishing a sovereign wealth fund would be substantially better for citizens relative to paying down the debt as a use for excess revenue
This Finance survey examines (a) Establishing a domestic sovereign wealth fund to invest in domestic infrastructure, emerging technologies, and/or strategic sectors would bring substantial benefits to the US economy over a ten-year horizon; (b) For the US, establishing a sovereign wealth fund would be substantially better for citizens relative to reducing public debt burdens
This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel Statement:
All things considered, US society will be better off if sports betting becomes legal in more US states (beyond Nevada).
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:
Providing state and local subsidies to build stadiums for professional sports teams is likely to cost the relevant taxpayers more than any local economic benefits that are generated.
This week’s IGM European Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) Having companies run to maximize shareholder value creates significant negative externalities for workers and communities.B) Appropriately managed corporations could create significantly greater value than they currently do for a range of stakeholders – including workers, suppliers, customers and community members – with small impacts on shareholder value.C) Effective mechanisms for boards of directors to ensure that CEOs act in ways that balance the interests of all stakeholders would be straightforward to introduce.
This Finance survey examines (a) Having companies run to maximize shareholder value creates significant negative externalities for workers and communities. (b) Appropriately managed corporations could create significantly greater value than they currently do for a range of stakeholders – including workers, suppliers, customers, and community members – with negligible impacts on shareholder value. (c) Effective mechanisms for boards of directors to ensure that CEOs act in ways that balance the interests of all stakeholders would be straightforward to introduce.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) Having companies run to maximize shareholder value creates significant negative externalities for workers and communities.B) Appropriately managed corporations could create significantly greater value than they currently do for a range of stakeholders – including workers, suppliers, customers and community members – with negligible impacts on shareholder value.C) Effective mechanisms for boards of directors to ensure that CEOs act in ways that balance the interests of all stakeholders would be straightforward to introduce.
This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:
Comparing their students’ average gains on standardized tests over the school year makes it easier to predict which teachers — all else equal — are more likely to improve their student’s long-term life outcomes.
This European survey examines (a) Loosening regulations on state aid to allow targeted incentives for companies in certain sectors will substantially improve the EU’s relative attractiveness for corporate investment; (b) Loosening regulations on state aid will give a substantial advantage to the economies of EU members with stronger public finances; (c) Even if looser regulations on state aid are temporary, they risk permanent damage to the EU’s longstanding competition policy regime
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:
Taking into account the revenues, consumer surplus, purchasing patterns by income, and possible consumer biases, state-run lotteries (such as Powerball and scratch-off games) increase social welfare.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) Assuming that additional federal spending were to be structured as in the CARES Act, a substantial further spending program now will ultimately be less costly than a smaller program because it will better help to avoid long-term economic damage and promote a stronger recovery.B) Having a fiscal rule that increases social spending on programs like unemployment insurance and SNAP based on the conditions of the economy would be an improvement on the discretionary way in which these programs are currently operated.
This Finance survey examines (a) With some measures of concentration by market capitalization within broad US stock market indices at an all-time high, investors seeking a well-diversified passive equity portfolio should consider alternatives to market-cap-weighted indices.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel poll statement:
Unless they have inside information, very few investors, if any, can consistently make accurate predictions about whether the price of an individual stock will rise or fall on a given day.
Plausible expectations of future dividends, discounted using a plausible risk-adjusted interest rate, explain well the level of stock prices for recently listed internet businesses in 1999.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:
Conventional economic reasoning suggests that it would be a good policy to enact the recent Senate bill that would let undergraduate students borrow through the government Stafford program at interest rates equivalent to the primary credit rates offered to banks through the Federal Reserve's discount window.
This week's US Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) Having the government issue additional debt to pay off all current outstanding student loans would be net regressive.B) Having the government issue enough additional debt to pay off student loans up to a threshold, for borrowers whose income is below a certain level, could be progressive.C) Extension of the suspension of payments on student loans after the end of the year would support the recovery more effectively than devoting equivalent resources to general income-based transfer payments.
This US survey examines (a) The administration’s loan relief plan will not have a substantial impact on inflation in either direction; (b) A longer-term impact of the administration’s loan relief plan is likely to be substantially higher tuition fees at some universities; (c) A longer-term impact of the administration’s loan relief plan is likely to be measurably higher student debt burdens in anticipation of future forgiveness
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A. Loans to students attending for-profit colleges are especially risky because students attending them have had default rates that greatly exceed those for comparable students attending public and non-profit private institutions.B. Rules that tie each college's eligibility for federal student loans to its students' graduation rates and post-schooling employment outcomes would better protect taxpayers from losses on student loans.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) When local governments compete by offering subsidies to a firm that is willing to relocate, and shopping across multiple alternative areas, the firm typically captures most of value that is created via the relocation.B) A federal prohibition against states and municipalities offering tax subsidies to attract specific businesses that are shopping across multiple areas to relocate would be welfare improving for the average taxpayer.
This European survey examines (a) Government subsidies for investment in green technologies are justified by substantial benefits coming from reducing unpriced carbon emissions and generating positive R&D spillovers; (b) Using subsidies for green technologies instead of full carbon prices will lead to substantially more rent-seeking and hence substantially higher costs to achieve a given reduction in emissions
This US survey examines (a) Government subsidies for investment in green technologies are justified by substantial benefits coming from reducing unpriced carbon emissions and generating positive R&D spillovers; (b) Using subsidies for green technologies instead of full carbon prices will lead to substantially more rent-seeking and hence substantially higher costs to achieve a given reduction in emissions
This US survey examines: The FTC is opposed to Kroger’s proposed acquisition of Albertsons. Critics argue that with sufficient divestitures, the deal would be consistent with past FTC policies; (a) Kroger’s proposed acquisition of Albertsons would lead to substantially higher grocery prices and/or lower product quality/services for their customers (b) Kroger’s proposed acquisition of Albertsons would have a substantially negative effect on the two companies’ workers; (c) The public interest would be better served if antitrust policy were changed so that when a proposed merger means a market will reach a certain level of concentration, the onus is on the merging parties to show that consumers and workers will not be harmed.
This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel Statements:
A) By providing electronic benefit cards to choose and buy groceries at stores, the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program currently does more for its recipients' well-being than it would if the program directly provided a smaller array of foods to its recipients, while commensurately reducing the amount they could spend on groceries of their own choosing.B) By providing electronic benefit cards to choose and buy groceries at stores, the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program currently does more to raise food security and reduce hunger than it would if the program directly provided a smaller array of foods to its recipients, while commensurately reducing the amount they could spend on groceries of their own choosing.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:
A market that allows payment for human kidneys should be established on a trial basis to help extend the lives of patients with kidney disease.
This week’s IGM European Economic Experts Panel statements:
Government support to private firms in the form of debt (either directly or with the help of public guarantees) is desirable, but risks leaving them with too much leverage to invest and grow in the future.Providing funds to viable businesses in the form of equity injections is a vital complement to debt support.With the EU ban on state aid suspended, government capital injections should be provided via a newly created pan-European equity fund, rather than be left to national governments acting independently.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:
Using surge pricing to allocate transportation services — such as Uber does with its cars — raises consumer welfare through various potential channels, such as increasing the supply of those services, allocating them to people who desire them the most, and reducing search and queuing costs.
This week's European Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) Policies that aim to reduce obesity by increasing incentives for physical activity would be more welfare-improving than policies that increase the financial costs of consuming calories.B) A ban on advertising junk foods (those that are high in sugar, salt and fat) would be an effective policy to reduce child obesity.C) Setting targets for schools to reduce obesity (e.g. by diverting financial resources to improve school meals or add cookery to the curriculum) would reduce social welfare because schools in deprived areas, where obesity is higher, are already struggling to deliver the core curriculum.
This week's US Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) Policies that aim to reduce obesity by increasing incentives for physical activity would improve social welfare more than policies that increase the financial costs of consuming calories.B) A ban on advertising junk foods (those that are high in sugar, salt, and fat) would be an effective policy to reduce child obesity.
This US survey examines (a) Tripling existing import taxes on Chinese steel and aluminum products would lead to measurably higher employment in the US steel industry over the next five years; (b) Tripling the tariffs would lead to measurably higher steel and aluminum prices for American producers and measurably higher finished-good prices for American consumers; (c) The gains for the American economy from tripling the tariffs would measurably outweigh the losses.
This US survey examines (a) The proposed US tariffs on Chinese EVs would lead to measurably higher employment in the US automotive industry over the next five years; (b) The proposed US tariffs on Chinese EVs would lead to measurably higher prices of EVs in the US; (c) The proposed US tariffs on Chinese EVs would measurably slow the adoption of green technology by consumers
This European survey examines (a) The proposed US tariffs on Chinese EVs would lead to measurably higher employment in the US automotive industry over the next five years; (b) The proposed US tariffs on Chinese EVs would measurably slow the adoption of green technology by consumers; (c) Unless the EU matches the proposed US tariffs on Chinese EVs, there would be measurably lower employment in Europe's automotive industry over the next five years
This US survey examines (a) All else equal, making permanent the 2017 tax cuts that were set to expire at the end of 2025 would substantially increase federal deficits and the federal debt over the coming decade; (b) All else equal, making permanent the 2017 tax cuts that were set to expire at the end of 2025 would measurably increase the rate of US economic growth over the coming decade, (c) In the US, given Congressional budget scoring rules, temporary tax cuts generate sufficient pressure for extension as to be effectively permanent
This week's US Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) Restoring the top individual federal income tax rate to 39.6% for incomes over $400,000 (from the current 37%) and taxing the capital gains and dividends of taxpayers with income over $1 million at that top rate (instead of the current preferential rate of 20%), with no other associated changes in taxes or spending, would be unlikely to hurt economic growth noticeably.B) Restoring the top tax rate, removing the preferential rate on capital gains and dividends, and raising the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28%, with no other associated changes in taxes or spending, would be likely to lead to a meaningful sustained reduction in fiscal deficits.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel poll statements:
A) Eliminating tax deductions for non-investment personal interest expenses (e.g., on mortgages), with reductions in personal tax rates that are both budget neutral and keep the burden of taxes by income group the same, would lead to more efficient financing decisions by individuals.B) Reducing the deductibility of interest expenses for non-financial businesses to equalize the overall tax cost of debt and equity financing, while using the extra revenue to reduce personal and corporate tax rates in a budget neutral fashion that also keeps the burden of taxes the same, would lead to more efficient financing decisions by firms.
This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel Statements:
A) If the US enacts a tax bill similar to those currently moving through the House and Senate— and assuming no other changes in tax or spending policy — US GDP will be substantially higher a decade from now than under the status quo.B) If the US enacts a tax bill similar to those currently moving through the House and Senate— and assuming no other changes in tax or spending policy — the US debt-to-GDP ratio will be substantially higher a decade from now than under the status quo.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) Since 1980, whenever substantial growth effects have been required to make a tax reform plan revenue neutral, the actual outcome has invariably been a fall in tax revenue as a share of GDP.B) The tax reform plan proposed by President Trump this week would likely pay for itself through higher economic growth.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel poll statements: A) All else equal, permanently raising the federal marginal tax rate on ordinary income by 1 percentage point for those in the top (i.e., currently 35%) tax bracket would increase federal tax revenue over the next 10 years. B) The cumulative budget shortfalls in the US over the next 10 years can be reduced by half (or more) purely by increasing the federal marginal tax rate on ordinary income for those in the top tax bracket.
This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:
Long run fiscal sustainability in the US will require some combination of cuts in currently promised Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security benefits and/or tax increases that include higher taxes on households with incomes below $250,000.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:
Letting car services such as Uber or Lyft compete with taxi firms on equal footing regarding genuine safety and insurance requirements, but without restrictions on prices or routes, raises consumer welfare.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A: One drawback of taxing capital income at a lower rate than labor income is that it gives people incentives to relabel income that policymakers find hard to categorize as "capital" rather than labor".B: Despite relabeling concerns, taxing capital income at a permanently lower rate than labor income would result in higher average long-term prosperity, relative to an alternative that generated the same amount of tax revenue by permanently taxing capital and labor income at equal rates instead.C: Although they do not always agree about the precise likely effects of different tax policies, another reason why economists often give disparate advice on tax policy is because they hold differing views about choices between raising average prosperity and redistributing income.
This Finance survey examines (a) Large-scale stock buybacks by public corporations provide short-term rewards for shareholders and senior executives at the expense of potentially higher-return corporate investments; (b) The proposed higher tax on corporate stock buybacks (an increase from 1% to 4%) would generate substantial public revenues; (c) The proposed higher tax on corporate stock buybacks would generate a substantial increase in corporate investment
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
The first required class for undergraduate economics majors at my university accurately reflects the way that economists think about a range of economics problems.The first required class for undergraduate economics majors at my university addresses the most pressing economic issues in the US.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A: Because federal spending on Medicare and Medicaid will continue to grow under current policy beyond the 10-year window of most political budget debates, it is easy for a politician to devise a budget plan that would reduce federal deficits over the next decade without really making the U.S. fiscally sustainable.B: Comparing two plans that would reduce federal budget deficits by identical amounts in each of the next 10 years, one that did so partly by reducing significantly the long-term growth rate of Medicare and Medicaid spending would do more to make the U.S. budget fiscally sustainable than one that did not lower the growth of these spending programs.
This Finance survey examines (a) Tesla shareholders are likely to benefit substantially from the decision by the Delaware Court of Chancery to void Elon Musk's $56 billion remuneration package
This US survey examines (a) Universities that abandon temporary pandemic test-optional policies and return to requiring standardized test scores for admissions will create measurably enhanced opportunities for potentially high-achieving students from low-income backgrounds.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) Even if tests for Covid-19 are being rationed, there is an urgent need for some random testing to establish baseline levels of the virus to inform any decisions about ending lockdowns.B) Required elements for an economic ‘restart’ after lockdowns include a massive increase in testing capacity (for infections and antibodies) along with a coherent strategy for preventing new outbreaks and reintroducing low-risk/no-risk individuals into public activities.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) Most college professors who assign textbooks would not be able to guess, within 10% of the actual figure, the retail price that their students pay for new copies of those books.B) Since students can resell college textbooks or rent electronic versions, the net burden on students is substantially lower than retail prices for new textbook purchases would suggest.C) Even though the professors who select textbooks are different form the people who pay for them, the price of new edition college textbooks reflect classic forces of supply and demand.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) Forecasting the effects of complex legislative actions is hard, so even competent, non-ideological and non-partisan projections could differ substantially from outcomes.B) Adjusting for legal restrictions on what the CBO can assume about future legislation and events, the CBO has historically issued credible forecasts of the effects of both Democratic and Republican legislative proposals.
This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:
Because of the many special and unique roles that the dollar plays in global commerce, US citizens are substantially better off than they otherwise would be.
This week’s IGM European Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) The European Union goal of reaching net zero emissions of greenhouse gases by 2050 will be a major drag on economic growth.B) Carbon taxes are a better way to implement climate policy than cap-and-trade.C) A carbon border tax targeting imports from non-EU countries with less strict climate policies is likely to harm developing economies.
This US survey examines (a) Adam Smith’s metaphor of the invisible hand has been foundational to the development of modern economic theory; (b) Adam Smith’s metaphor of the invisible hand has been commonly misinterpreted as advocacy for pure laissez-faire capitalism
This European survey examines (a) Adam Smith’s metaphor of the invisible hand has been foundational to the development of modern economic theory; (b) Adam Smith’s metaphor of the invisible hand has been commonly misinterpreted as advocacy for pure laissez-faire capitalism
This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel Statement:
NCAA Division I schools coordinate compensation for men’s basketball and football players (precluding actual pay and limiting non-monetary benefits), providing rents to member schools (which may be shared with others) at the expense of those players.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) Given the social and regulatory pressures to keep prices down for drugs and vaccines to treat Covid-19, the financial incentives for pharmaceutical companies to invest in such products are below the value of the investment to society.B) Government commitments to pay developers and manufacturers above average costs for an effective vaccine or drug treatments for Covid-19 would accelerate production.C) Given the positive externalities from vaccination, an effective Covid-19 vaccine should be mandatory for every US resident (except those with health exceptions, such as infants and people with compromised immunity) with the cost covered by the federal government.
This week’s IGM European Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) Given the social and regulatory pressures to keep prices down for drugs and vaccines to treat Covid-19, the financial incentives for pharmaceutical companies to invest in such products are below the value of the investment to society.
B) Government commitments to pay developers and manufacturers above average costs for an effective vaccine or drug treatments for Covid-19 would accelerate production.
C) Given the positive externalities from vaccination, an effective Covid-19 vaccine should have priority in public healthcare funding even in countries where other diseases cause more death and disability.
This US survey examines (a) US GDP is substantially higher now as a result of the passage of the TCJA than it would have been had the TCJA not been passed, and all else was equal; (b) Corporate capital stock is substantially higher now as a result of the passage of the TCJA than it would have been had the TCJA not been passed, and all else was equal; (c) Real median wages are substantially higher now as a result of the passage of the TCJA than they would have been had the TCJA not been passed, and all else was equal; (d) Federal tax revenues are substantially lower now as a result of the passage of the TCJA than they would have been had the TCJA not been passed, and all else was equal; (e) Charitable donations are substantially lower now as a result of the passage of the TCJA than they would have been had the TCJA not been passed, and all else was equal.
This week's US Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) A federal minimum wage of $15 per hour would lower employment for low-wage workers in many states.B) A federal minimum wage that is pegged to state and/or local conditions such as the cost of living would be preferable to the current arrangements that give states a role in setting the policy.
This week's European Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) A federal minimum wage of $15 per hour would lower employment for low-wage workers in many states.B) A federal minimum wage that is pegged to state and/or local conditions such as the cost of living would be preferable to the current arrangements that give states a role in setting the policy.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel poll statement:
Laws that limit the resale of tickets for entertainment and sports events make potential audience members for those events worse off on average.
This US survey examines (a) If enacted and technologically effective, a national ban on the use of TikTok would have a measurably negative impact on US innovation; (b) If enacted and technologically effective, a national ban on the use of TikTok would have a measurably positive impact on the profits of the big US tech companies
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel poll statements:
A) The average size of the 19 financial firms that just completed the Federal Reserve stress tests (i.e. the CCAR) would be substantially smaller if they did not have implicit government support.B) The 19 financial firms that just completed the Federal Reserve stress tests (i.e. the CCAR) are big primarily because of economies of scale and scope, rather than because of implicit government support.
This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel Statement:
Historical experience suggests that raising the top federal marginal tax on personal income to 70% (and holding the rest of the current tax code fixed) would raise substantially more revenue (federal and state, combined) without lowering economic activity.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
Mexico's persistent bilateral trade surplus with the United States implies that Mexico is following policies that keep the peso artificially weak against the US dollar.The existence of a multi-year trade deficit of Country A with Country B implies that B has successfully tilted the playing field in its favor in terms of such policies as tariffs, non-tariff barriers, and the exchange rate between them.
This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:
An important reason why many workers in Michigan and Ohio have lost jobs in recent years is because US presidential administrations over the past 30 years have not been tough enough in trade negotiations.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:
A typical country can increase its citizens’ welfare by enacting policies that would increase its trade surplus (or decrease its trade deficit).
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:
The current trade barriers in the U.S. sugar industry raise the profits of sugar producers and make the typical U.S. consumer pay more for sugar and goods that use sugar as an input.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:
Refusing to liberalize trade unless partner countries adopt new labor or environmental rules is a bad policy, because even if the new standards would reduce distortions on some dimensions, such a policy involves threatening to maintain large distortions in the form of restricted trade.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:
Because global supply chains are more important now, import tariffs are likely substantially more costly than they would have been 25 years ago.
This Finance survey examines (a) The trend of consolidation in the US banking sector will lead to fewer, but more profitable, mega-banks with over $250 billion in assets dominating the market; (b) The current liquidity and capital regulations are inadequate to address run risks of banks in a digital era
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) US share prices have risen since Donald Trump’s election victory at least partly because the policies he seems poised to implement are likely to increase US after-tax corporate profits.B) US share prices have risen since Donald Trump’s election victory at least partly because the policies he seems poised to implement are likely to increase US real GDP growth.
This US survey examines (a) Network externalities give Twitter an incumbent advantage that will slow substantially the migration of users who would prefer alternative platforms;
(b) As of now, there needs to be more government regulation around Twitter’s content moderation and personal data protection.
This European survey examines (a) Network externalities give Twitter an incumbent advantage that will slow substantially the migration of users who would prefer alternative platforms;
(b) As of now, there needs to be more government regulation around Twitter’s content moderation and personal data protection.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A: By discounting pension liabilities at high interest rates under government accounting standards, many U.S. state and local governments understate their pension liabilities and the costs of providing pensions to public-sector workers.B: During the next two decades some U.S. states, unless they substantially increase taxes, cut spending, and/or change public-sector pensions, will require a combination of severe austerity budgets, a federal bailout, and/or default.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A: By discounting pension liabilities at high interest rates under government accounting standards, many U.S. state and local governments understate their pension liabilities and the costs of providing pensions to public-sector workers. (The experts panel previously voted on this question on October 1, 2012. Those earlier results can be found here.)B: During the next two decades some U.S. states, unless they substantially increase taxes, cut spending, and/or change public-sector pensions, will require a combination of severe austerity budgets, a federal bailout, and/or default. (The experts panel previously voted on this question on October 1, 2012. Those earlier results can be found here.)
This week's US Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) The $300 supplement to weekly unemployment benefits available from now through September 6 constitutes a major disincentive to work for lower-wage workers.B) The $300 supplement to weekly unemployment benefits available from now through September 6 is likely to lead to re-employment wages for currently unemployed workers that are higher by an economically meaningful amount.
This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:
Granting every American citizen over 21-years old a universal basic income of $13,000 a year — financed by eliminating all transfer programs (including Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, housing subsidies, household welfare payments, and farm and corporate subsidies) — would be a better policy than the status quo.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A: If the United States fails to make scheduled interest or principal payments on government debt securities, even as an unintended consequence of political brinksmanship, US families and businesses are likely to suffer severe economic harm.
B: With or without a default, current uncertainty over future taxing and spending policies of the US government is likely to depress private investment and hiring by enough to reduce GDP growth by at least a quarter of a percentage point over the next 12 months.
This week's IGM European Experts Panel statement:
The US spends roughly 17% of GDP on healthcare, according to the OECD; most European countries spend less than 12% of GDP.
Higher quality-adjusted US healthcare prices contribute relatively more to the extra US spending than does the combination of higher quantity and quality of US care (interpreting quantity and quality to reflect both greater American healthcare needs due to underlying population health and the delivery of more or better healthcare services to Americans).
This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel Statement:
The US spends roughly 17% of GDP on healthcare, according to the OECD; most European countries spend less than 12% of GDP.
Higher quality-adjusted US healthcare prices contribute relatively more to the extra US spending than does the combination of higher quantity and quality of US care (interpreting quantity and quality to reflect both greater American healthcare needs due to underlying population health and the delivery of more or better healthcare services to Americans).
This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) The Fed should raise its target interest rate when it meets in mid-December.B) The Fed should have raised interest rates sooner, rather than leaving them near zero for this long.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:
The 9% cumulative increase in real US median household income since 1980 substantially understates how much better off people in the median American household are now economically, compared with 35 years ago.
This US survey examines (a) Nippon Steel’s proposed acquisition of US Steel would lead to substantially less employment in the US steel industry than in the absence of such a deal; (b) Nippon Steel’s proposed acquisition of US Steel would cause no measurable damage to the American economy
This week's US Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) Removing intellectual property protections on Covid-19 vaccines would substantially improve availability of the vaccines in developing countries.B) Removing intellectual property protections on Covid-19 vaccines would have a negative impact on vaccine development efforts for future variants of SARS-CoV-2 or for the next pandemic.C) Without an international agreement that facilitates vaccine trade, countries’ incentives to limit exports of vaccines and/or key production inputs are likely to prolong the adverse effects of the pandemic in advanced countries.
This week's European Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) Removing intellectual property protections on Covid-19 vaccines would substantially improve availability of the vaccines in developing countries.B) Removing intellectual property protections on Covid-19 vaccines would have a negative impact on vaccine development efforts for future variants of SARS-CoV-2 or for the next pandemic.C) Without an international agreement that facilitates vaccine trade, countries’ incentives to limit exports of vaccines and/or key production inputs are likely to prolong the adverse effects of the pandemic in advanced countries.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:
A) Declining to be vaccinated against contagious diseases such as measles imposes costs on other people, which is a negative externality.B) Considering the costs of restricting free choice, and the share of people in the US who choose not to vaccinate their children for measles, the social benefit of mandating measles vaccines for all Americans (except those with compelling medical reasons) would exceed the social cost.
This week's US Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) Reliable Covid-19 vaccines will reach developing countries more quickly if the rich countries pay the pharmaceutical companies at prevailing prices to manufacture and distribute the vaccines (or to license production and support licensees), rather than waiving patent protection.B) The benefits to the US, Canada, Europe, Japan and other rich countries of paying for 12 billion doses of Covid vaccines at prevailing prices and providing them for free to the rest of the world exceed the costs that the rich countries would incur.
This week's European Economic Expert Panel statements:
A) Reliable Covid-19 vaccines will reach developing countries more quickly if the rich countries pay the pharmaceutical companies at prevailing prices to manufacture and distribute the vaccines (or to license production and support licensees), rather than waiving patent protection.B) The benefits to the US, Canada, Europe, Japan and other rich countries of paying for 12 billion doses of Covid vaccines at prevailing prices and providing them for free to the rest of the world exceed the costs that the rich countries would incur.
This week's European Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) Offering substantially higher prices per dose would have resulted in larger capacity investments by vaccine makers and accelerated distribution in Europe significantly.B) In the current situation, paying for more production capacity would be better than offering higher prices for vaccines.C) If the EU started paying prices above 100 euros per dose, it would on net reduce the cost of the pandemic to the EU via more lives saved and shorter lockdowns.
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
Senator Warren’s proposed wealth tax would be much more difficult to enforce than existing federal taxes because of difficulties of valuation and the ways by which the wealthy can under-report their true wealth.If successfully enforced, Senator Warren’s proposed wealth tax would substantially decrease the share of wealth going to the top 0.1% of wealth-holders after 20 years.A public policy goal that could be accomplished with a well-enforced wealth tax could be equally accomplished with modifications to existing federal taxes – for example, revising the estate tax and/or capital gains tax.
This week's European Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) A wealth tax would be an effective way to reduce inequality.B) A wealth tax in a form discussed in the UK (where individuals could be taxed a percentage of their net worth over £750,000, excluding any personal pension savings and their main home) would be an effective way to improve public finances after the Covid-19 crisis.C) A public policy goal that could be accomplished with a well-enforced wealth tax could be accomplished at lower cost with modifications to existing taxes, such as income tax, capital gains tax, inheritance tax and property tax.
This European survey examines (a) The amendments to the Northern Ireland protocol agreed by the UK and the EU are unlikely to have a measurable direct impact on UK growth over the next two years; (b) If renewed UK-EU scientific cooperation were achieved in the wake of the Windsor framework, it would be likely to have a measurable positive impact on UK growth over the next five years
This US survey examines (a) By enabling women’s life choices about education, work and family, the contraceptive pill made a substantial contribution to closing gender gaps in the labor market for professionals; (b) Gender gaps in today’s labor market arise less from differences in educational and occupational choices than from the differential career impact of parenthood and social norms around men's and women’s roles in childrearing; (c) The gender gap in pay would be substantially reduced if firms had fewer incentives to offer disproportionate rewards to individuals who work long and/or inflexible hours
This European survey examines (a) By enabling women’s life choices about education, work and family, the contraceptive pill made a substantial contribution to closing gender gaps in the labor market for professionals; (b) Gender gaps in today’s labor market arise less from differences in educational and occupational choices than from the differential career impact of parenthood and social norms around men's and women’s roles in childrearing; (c) The gender gap in pay would be substantially reduced if firms had fewer incentives to offer disproportionate rewards to individuals who work long and/or inflexible hours
