On the basis of current climate policy commitments and potential technology and market responses, my current best estimate for global warming is that average global temperatures by 2100 will rise to no more than 2.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

Question A: A period of high inflation is substantially more electorally damaging to incumbent governments in advanced countries than a period of high unemployment.

Question B: Voters are more likely to punish incumbents for what they perceive as poor national economic performance than they are to reward incumbents for a good economy.

Question A: The institutions of society - such as constitutions, laws, judiciaries, and property rights - substantially shape economic decisions, policies, and outcomes.

Question B: On average and over the long term, democracies deliver substantially better economic growth than other forms of government.

Question C: Countries where democracy and the rule of law are weakened are likely to experience measurable damage to their economic performance.

Question A: Current enforcement of competition policy in Europe is not working to promote innovation and growth.

Question B: European Union bureaucracy and regulations are a substantial constraint on innovation in Europe.

Question C: The conduct of the dominant US tech companies in European markets (including lobbying and acquisition of start-ups and competitors) is a substantial constraint on innovation in Europe.

Question A: In pursuing social and environmental initiatives, the average public company generates more benefits than costs in terms of profits.

Question B: In pursuing social and environmental initiatives, public companies would benefit from a measurably lower cost of capital.

Question C: There are substantial social benefits when managers of public companies make choices that account for the impact of their decisions on customers, employees, and community members beyond the effects on shareholders.

Question A: US antitrust investigations of the dominant firms in artificial intelligence are warranted by the need to foster competition and innovation in the technologies.

Question B: Seeking to slow the pace of artificial intelligence use and implementation would be a more effective means of assessing potential harms from the technologies than market deployment and ex post assessment.

Question A: The proposed US tariffs on Chinese EVs would lead to measurably higher employment in the US automotive industry over the next five years.

Question B: The proposed US tariffs on Chinese EVs would measurably slow the adoption of green technology by consumers.

Question C: Unless the EU matches the proposed US tariffs on Chinese EVs, there would be measurably lower employment in Europe's automotive industry over the next five years.

Question A: Greater integration of national markets for financial services, energy and telecommunications would give a measurable boost to Europe’s GDP over the next ten years.

Question B: The potential benefits for GDP from loosening European merger rules to allow greater consolidation within the single market would outweigh the potential harm to consumers from weaker competition.

Question A:

Creation of a more unified capital market in Europe - with a common pool of capital, a single rule book and a strengthened European Securities and Markets Authority, comparable to the US Securities and Exchange Commission – would lead to a substantial shift in the balance of companies listing their shares in the EU vis-a-vis the US.

Question B: Creation of a more unified capital market in Europe - with a common pool of capital, a single rule book and a strengthened European Securities and Markets Authority, comparable to the US Securities and Exchange Commission – would substantially increase the availability of funding for start-ups and growing companies across the EU.

Question A: The European Union's AI Act was approved by the European Parliament in March 2024: https://artificialintelligenceact.eu/the-act/

The EU's legislation to regulate artificial intelligence is likely to put European technology firms at a substantial disadvantage to their competitors elsewhere in the world.

Question B: By providing a clear set of rules, the EU's legislation on artificial intelligence is likely to enhance research and innovation by firms building the new technology.

Question A: Europe’s economic growth performance over the last 25 years has been measurably better than it would have been in the absence of the single currency.

Question B: With euro area member states having given up their ability to carry out independent monetary policy, it is substantially more difficult for them to respond effectively to country-specific macroeconomic disturbances.

A legalized and carefully regulated market for cannabis would lead to measurably higher social welfare than a system of prohibition.

Question A: The economic and financial sanctions against Russia are substantially limiting its ability to wage war on Ukraine.

Question B: In the absence of continuing flows of Western economic aid, Ukraine's wartime economy will be substantially compromised.

Question A: A constitutional rule that limits the size of budget deficits that governments can run as a share of GDP is an effective way to impose discipline on a country’s public finances.

Question B: Germany’s debt brake is a substantial constraint on vital public investment in physical/digital infrastructure and the green transition.

Question A:

The fundamental cause of Argentina’s high inflation is unfunded fiscal commitments that are being financed by the central bank.

Question B: Even if Argentina could marshal the resources to make a full switch to using US dollars for domestic transactions, it would substantially increase the volatility of Argentine GDP.

Question A: It is best for society if the management of publicly traded corporations only considers the impact of their decisions on customers, employees, and community members to the extent that these effects feedback to affect shareholder wealth.

Question B: The typical chief executive officer of a publicly traded corporation is paid more than his or her marginal contribution to the firm's value.