About
- Professor of Economics at the University of Oxford
- Research Director of OXCARRE (Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies)
- Vice Chair of the UNESCO World Heritage Committee (2003-2007)
Voting History
Question A: The institutions of society - such as constitutions, laws, judiciaries, and property rights - substantially shape economic decisions, policies, and outcomes.
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Question B: On average and over the long term, democracies deliver substantially better economic growth than other forms of government.
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Question C: Countries where democracy and the rule of law are weakened are likely to experience measurable damage to their economic performance.
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Question A: Current enforcement of competition policy in Europe is not working to promote innovation and growth.
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Question B: European Union bureaucracy and regulations are a substantial constraint on innovation in Europe.
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Question C: The conduct of the dominant US tech companies in European markets (including lobbying and acquisition of start-ups and competitors) is a substantial constraint on innovation in Europe.
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Question A: In pursuing social and environmental initiatives, the average public company generates more benefits than costs in terms of profits.
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Question B: In pursuing social and environmental initiatives, public companies would benefit from a measurably lower cost of capital.
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Question C: There are substantial social benefits when managers of public companies make choices that account for the impact of their decisions on customers, employees, and community members beyond the effects on shareholders.
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Question A: US antitrust investigations of the dominant firms in artificial intelligence are warranted by the need to foster competition and innovation in the technologies.
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Question B: Seeking to slow the pace of artificial intelligence use and implementation would be a more effective means of assessing potential harms from the technologies than market deployment and ex post assessment.
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Question A: The proposed US tariffs on Chinese EVs would lead to measurably higher employment in the US automotive industry over the next five years.
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Question B: The proposed US tariffs on Chinese EVs would measurably slow the adoption of green technology by consumers.
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Question C: Unless the EU matches the proposed US tariffs on Chinese EVs, there would be measurably lower employment in Europe's automotive industry over the next five years.
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Question A: Greater integration of national markets for financial services, energy and telecommunications would give a measurable boost to Europe’s GDP over the next ten years.
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Question B: The potential benefits for GDP from loosening European merger rules to allow greater consolidation within the single market would outweigh the potential harm to consumers from weaker competition.
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Question A:Creation of a more unified capital market in Europe - with a common pool of capital, a single rule book and a strengthened European Securities and Markets Authority, comparable to the US Securities and Exchange Commission – would lead to a substantial shift in the balance of companies listing their shares in the EU vis-a-vis the US.
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Question B: Creation of a more unified capital market in Europe - with a common pool of capital, a single rule book and a strengthened European Securities and Markets Authority, comparable to the US Securities and Exchange Commission – would substantially increase the availability of funding for start-ups and growing companies across the EU.
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Question A: The European Union's AI Act was approved by the European Parliament in March 2024: https://artificialintelligenceact.eu/the-act/
The EU's legislation to regulate artificial intelligence is likely to put European technology firms at a substantial disadvantage to their competitors elsewhere in the world.
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Question B: By providing a clear set of rules, the EU's legislation on artificial intelligence is likely to enhance research and innovation by firms building the new technology.
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Question A: Europe’s economic growth performance over the last 25 years has been measurably better than it would have been in the absence of the single currency.
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Question B: With euro area member states having given up their ability to carry out independent monetary policy, it is substantially more difficult for them to respond effectively to country-specific macroeconomic disturbances.
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A legalized and carefully regulated market for cannabis would lead to measurably higher social welfare than a system of prohibition.
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Comment: In the Netherlands coffee shops sell cannabis. However, strictly speaking it is illegal to do. The Dutch government tolerates it provided they do not sell hard drugs, engage in tax evasion etcetera. So it is allowed provided they behave.
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Question A: The economic and financial sanctions against Russia are substantially limiting its ability to wage war on Ukraine.
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Comment: Although it is not kicking in yet, at least Russia has to sell its gas at huge discounts and many high-tech products are not available or only at higher costs.
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Question B: In the absence of continuing flows of Western economic aid, Ukraine's wartime economy will be substantially compromised.
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Comment: Without the aid they will not be able to feed and shelter the population, and will the war effort be much undermined. Money and weapons are needed.
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Question A: A constitutional rule that limits the size of budget deficits that governments can run as a share of GDP is an effective way to impose discipline on a country’s public finances.
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Comment: Due to common pool problem and sometimes weak ministers of finance, it is helpful to have such a rule provided it allows leeway for productive government investments ("golden rule").
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Question B: Germany’s debt brake is a substantial constraint on vital public investment in physical/digital infrastructure and the green transition.
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Comment: A debt brake indeed carries the danger that it crowd out productive public investments (as has been the case with the Maastricht criteria).
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Question A:The fundamental cause of Argentina’s high inflation is unfunded fiscal commitments that are being financed by the central bank.
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Comment: Unfunded fiscal deficits leads to explosion of monetary growth and consequent inflation and depreciations of the currency.
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Question B: Even if Argentina could marshal the resources to make a full switch to using US dollars for domestic transactions, it would substantially increase the volatility of Argentine GDP.
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Question A: It is best for society if the management of publicly traded corporations only considers the impact of their decisions on customers, employees, and community members to the extent that these effects feedback to affect shareholder wealth.
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Comment: Taking a stakeholder perspective including the impact of the company on justice, distribution, climate, risk of conflict, etcetera is better as a long-term objective.
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Question B: The typical chief executive officer of a publicly traded corporation is paid more than his or her marginal contribution to the firm's value.
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Comment: Economy of superstars. Not enough countervailing power on boards of companies.
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Question A: By enabling women’s life choices about education, work and family, the contraceptive pill made a substantial contribution to closing gender gaps in the labor market for professionals.
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Question B: Gender gaps in today’s labor market arise less from differences in educational and occupational choices than from the differential career impact of parenthood and social norms around men's and women’s roles in childrearing.
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Question C: The gender gap in pay would be substantially reduced if firms had fewer incentives to offer disproportionate rewards to individuals who work long and/or inflexible hours.
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Question A: The EU's taxonomy for sustainable activities - a classification system that defines criteria for economic activities that are aligned with a net zero trajectory by 2050 and the broader environmental goals other than climate - is an effective way to steer greener investment and the energy transition by firms and financial institutions.
Details on the taxonomy are here:
https://finance.ec.europa.eu/sustainable-finance/tools-and-standards/eu-taxonomy-sustainable-activities_en
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Comment: I fear that nuclear energy and natural gas will be counted as green and sustainable.
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Question B: Use of the EU taxonomy for sustainable activities is likely to stifle important innovations, including in green technology.
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Comment: If natural gas and nuclear are viewed as green, financial and other resources for R&D will be detracted from real green R&D investments.
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Question C: On balance, use of the taxonomy in EU directives and regulation is likely to be net beneficial to European citizens.
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Comment: Better something than nothing.
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Question A: Fiscal rules on budget deficits and public debt levels are an essential part of a sound fiscal framework.
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Comment: Without it the temptation of spending ministers to spend too much is just to great. Especially in coalition systems one needs strong rules to keep good discipline.
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Question B: Since the inception of the Stability and Growth Pact, budget deficits in Europe have been measurably lower, on average, than would have been the case without common budget rules.
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Comment: However, in times of crises, starting with Germany, countries have been quite happy to not abide by the rules.
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Question C: Since the inception of the Stability and Growth Pact, the path of GDP growth in Europe has been measurably more stable than would have been the case without common budget rules.
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Question A: Non-bank financial intermediaries pose a substantial threat to financial stability.
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Question B: Regulating the leverage and liquidity of non-bank financial intermediaries would substantially improve financial stability.
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Question C: Given current regulations, non-bank financial intermediaries should not have access to central bank support.
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Question A: A significant factor behind today’s inflation in Europe is dominant corporations in uncompetitive markets taking advantage of their market power to raise prices in order to increase their profit margins.
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Question B: A significant factor behind today’s inflation in some sectors of the European economy is dominant corporations in uncompetitive markets taking advantage of their market power to raise prices in order to increase their profit margins.
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Question C: A significant factor behind today’s inflation in some sectors of the European economy (both competitive and concentrated) is distortions in the aggregate economy where supply does not meet demand.
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Question A: If countries could impose a ban on the use of ChatGPT and similar generative AI chatbot services that is technologically effective, they would experience a measurably negative impact on national innovation.
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Comment: It is there to see. So many companies are already using these tools in the legal sector, the business sector, education and elsewhere.
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Question B: Regardless of whether advances in AI spur productivity growth, they are likely to create deep challenges for society – in areas from labor markets to politics, and including disinformation, privacy, crime, and warfare – that will be difficult to anticipate, plan for, and contain.
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Question A: Use of artificial intelligence over the next ten years will lead to a substantial increase in the growth rates of real per capita income in the US and Western Europe over the subsequent two decades.
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Comment: One might expect AI to fundamentally alter the way business is conducted in many spheres of the economy. Not just replacing stuff done by humans before but also new possibilities leading to new growth prospects.
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Question B: Use of artificial intelligence over the next ten years will have a substantially bigger impact on the growth rates of real per capita income in the US and Western Europe over the subsequent two decades than the internet has had over the past two decades.
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Question A: Preserving the financial viability of France's state pension system is better achieved by raising the effective retirement age than by raising contributions while working.
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Comment: By more people working longer and postponing retirement, vacancies can be filled and the economy can grow upon which it becomes easier to finance retirement.
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Question B: Preserving the financial viability of France's state pension system is better achieved by raising the effective retirement age than by reducing benefits once retired.
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Comment: Raising the effective retirement age will have some effect, but remember that the French get less pension when they retire before the official retirement age.
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Question A: Financial regulators in the US and Europe lack the tools and authority to deter runs on banks by uninsured depositors.
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Comment: By demanding buffer holdings from commercial banks and having deposit insurance, runs might be avoided.
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Question B: Not guaranteeing uninsured deposits at Silicon Valley Bank in full would have created substantial damage to the US economy.
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Comment: Not having deposit insurance would increase the chance of a bank run
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Question C: Fully guaranteeing uninsured deposits at Silicon Valley Bank substantially increases banks’ incentives to engage in excessive risk-taking.
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Comment: There is a moral hazard issue, which I hope to be less bad than the cure.
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Question A: The amendments to the Northern Ireland protocol agreed by the UK and the EU are unlikely to have a measurable direct impact on UK growth over the next two years.
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Comment: Not sure. It will definitely boost economy of Northern Ireland. It may even be at the expense of the economy of Great Britain. It is all madness, since before Brexit most Northern Ireland and Great Britain already had access to each others' markets and those of the EU.
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Question B: If renewed UK-EU scientific cooperation were achieved in the wake of the Windsor framework, it would be likely to have a measurable positive impact on UK growth over the next five years.
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Comment: The demise of Horizon, ERC and other EU grants is a disaster for UK universities, and the potential innovations necessary to fuel growth. I do not have much confidence that this will be resolved in the same manner as it was before Brexit.
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Question A: Adam Smith’s metaphor of the invisible hand has been foundational to the development of modern economic theory.
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Comment: Smith and later Hayek have shown us the importance of using markets rather than Stalinist planning. And of course the Arrow-Debreu-Hahn theory of general equilibrium is taught to all students.
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Question B: Adam Smith’s metaphor of the invisible hand has been commonly misinterpreted as advocacy for pure laissez-faire capitalism.
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Comment: Adam Smith both in the Wealth of Nations and in the Theory of Moral Sentiments has warned for market failures and inequalities which need to be corrected.
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Question A: Loosening regulations on state aid to allow targeted incentives for companies in certain sectors will substantially improve the EU’s relative attractiveness for corporate investment.
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Comment: Loosening state aid regulations will curb competition and all the benefits in terms of price and innovation that brings. It might help to get some green companies of the ground, but it is better to persuade the US to stop doing this.
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Question B: Loosening regulations on state aid will give a substantial advantage to the economies of EU members with stronger public finances.
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Comment: If a country is going to it and it is economically worthwhile, then it should be possible to borrow for such state investments in private companies.
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Question C: Even if looser regulations on state aid are temporary, they risk permanent damage to the EU’s longstanding competition policy regime.
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Comment: It is less damaging if it is temporary, but the door has been opened and more damage may be done on future occasions.
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Question A: Without government intervention, take-up of electric vehicles will be substantially less than is desirable to reduce carbon emissions.
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Comment: There are tipping points due to positive feedback effects resulting from peer effects and learning by doing. It is imperative that policy makers ensure that the economy transitions from the ICE to electrical vehicles by shifting the equilibrium.
-see background information here |
Question B: To encourage greater take-up of electric vehicles, public expenditure on infrastructure to support them (such as charging stations) is likely to be more cost-effective than providing equivalent amounts as tax credits/purchase rebates for buyers.
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Comment: One needs both the charging stations and the electrical vehicles. Local governments also have a key role to play to get the space for this.
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Question A: Network externalities give Twitter an incumbent advantage that will slow substantially the migration of users who would prefer alternative platforms.
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Comment: There are already plenty of other platforms to choose from.
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Question B: As of now, there needs to be more government regulation around Twitter’s content moderation and personal data protection.
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Question A: The carbon border adjustment mechanism will ensure that the European Union’s green objectives are not undermined by the relocation of EU production in the sectors under the mechanism to non-EU countries with less ambitious climate policies (‘carbon leakage').
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Comment: Now the biggest polluters in Europe get free permits and do not face a proper incentive to cut emissions. With a BTA there will be a level playing field and these firms can pay the permit price too without risking dirty commission from outside the EU.
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Question B: To the extent that the carbon border adjustment mechanism is effective in reducing emissions and carbon leakage, it will impose substantial costs on the economies of poorer countries.
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Comment: On the one hand, poorer countries will find it more difficult to export CO2-intensive products to the EU and will thus be worse off. On the other hand, it will encourage them also to speed up their green transition.
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Question A: Research on the nature and impact of bank runs has made it possible to limit the occurrence of financial crises and the economic damage they cause.
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Comment: The Diamond-Dybvig framework has increased our understanding of bank runs long before the global financial crisis. Also, what can be done to lower risk of runs (e.g., sufficient reserves) is well known.
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Question B: Despite repeated reforms of financial regulation (and macroprudential policies in some countries), there will always be occasional financial crises.
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Comment: One can at most curb the risk of bank runs. However, to bring down risk to almost zero would be "too" prudent and would make it more difficult to keep the economy going. There is thus a trade-off where one wants to bring down risk of bank runs but not by too much.
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Question A: The UK’s removal of the cap on bankers' bonuses (introduced by the EU in 2014 and which limits payouts to two times annual base salary) will provide a measurable boost to the country’s economic growth.
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Comment: It will make bankers richer and more reckless. Not clear at all why this would stimulate the economy.
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Question B: Removing the cap on bankers' bonuses will measurably enhance the global competitiveness of the UK’s financial services sector.
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Comment: It might. It might not. Most bankers would increase base salary anyway if there is a cap
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Question C: Removing the cap on bankers' bonuses will pose a measurable risk to financial stability in the UK.
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Question A: A price cap imposed by the G7/EU countries on purchases of Russian oil and oil-related products (and which applies to all importers of Russian oil using Western trade infrastructure, shipping, and insurance) would be an effective measure to reduce the flow of revenues to Russia.
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Comment: A boycot of oil would be better. For oil (not gas), some of it will be sold instead at a discount to China and India. Hence, oil from Saudi Arabia will become available for the West and thus price of oil may fall.
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Question B: The oil price cap imposed by the G7/EU countries will not have a substantial effect on the world oil price (such as the Brent crude benchmark).
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Comment: As I already said, China and India will buy from Russia oil at a discount rather than from Saudi Arabia and others. Hence, this lower the price of oil for the West too.
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