Rising inequality is straining the health of liberal democracy.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
7
Agree
7
Question B: Enacting more redistributive expenditures and policies would be likely to limit the rise of populism in Europe.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Uncertain
7
Question C: European governments should allocate more resources to policies that would be likely to limit the rise of populism in Europe, even if it means higher public debt or lower public spending in other areas.
At this point, there is little that the European Central Bank can do to increase or maintain output in the Eurozone.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Uncertain
7
Question B: When the economy is operating below its potential, larger fiscal deficits are likely to increase demand and output.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
7
Agree
7
Comment: If the government’s money isn’t wasted.
Question C: When the economy is operating below its potential and monetary policy is at the effective lower bound, fiscal policy should prioritize increasing output over decreasing public debt.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
5
Uncertain
7
Comment: Ok if debt position is not in danger zone.
Selecting candidates for membership of the ECB Executive Board based primarily on nationality ahead of competence is likely to have a negative effect on the quality of monetary policy in the Eurozone.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
8
Agree
8
Comment: To maintain broad support among euro member countries representativeness may also be relevant.
Question B: Although the central bank can never be an entirely technocratic institution, the selection process for the ECB President and members of the Executive Board is significantly worsened by intergovernmental trade-offs involving appointments to other European institutions.
On bids for infrastructure projects, the average European would be better off if Europe’s governments favored European firms over Chinese firms (or firms from any other country with non-profit-related geopolitical strategies) — even if it means sometimes choosing a higher-cost bidder.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
8
Disagree
5
Comment: I take it that the comparison includes all components (quality, on-time delivery, etc). Helping inefficient companies doesn’t improve them.
Question A: Breaking the “doom loop” — a negative spiral that can result when banks hold sovereign bonds and governments bail out banks — would increase the stability of European economies in the event of another financial crisis.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Agree
8
Question B: Regulators should try to break the doom loop by assigning positive risk weights — in calculating banks’ capital requirements — to banks’ holdings of domestic and other Eurozone sovereign bonds.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Agree
8
Question C: Breaking the doom loop would impose substantial costs on powerful political constituencies.
Residents of big European cities would be better off, on balance, if governments did more to counter gentrification, for example by using rent and other housing subsidies, public housing investments, zoning regulations, or similar policies.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Disagree
2
Disagree
5
Comment: A solid public education system is important, as is public health, in my view. Paying people to live in certain areas is more questionable.
Question A: A common European deposit insurance scheme, once fully implemented, would increase the stability of European economies in the event of another financial crisis.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
6
Agree
8
Comment: A common system appears constraining, given differences in financial systems across countries.
Question A: Overall, public spending on the arts in Europe creates benefits that exceed the deadweight loss caused by taxation to fund it.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Uncertain
5
Comment: I'm no expert on this but I think there are good reasons for some amount of support of the arts.
Question B: Additional public spending on the arts in Europe would create incremental benefits that exceed the deadweight loss caused by taxation to fund it.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
No Opinion
Uncertain
5
Comment: I'm not aware of the current level of support. As I said, some public support is called for.
Question A: The average European is better off if Europe’s competition authorities let firms merge into European champions in their sectors, even it weakens competition.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
2
Disagree
7
Comment: It depends on the particular sector and the particular foreign competition. I can see it going both ways.
Question B: If China and other countries use policies that create giant international firms, then the average European is better off if Europe's competition authorities let firms merge into European champions in their sectors, even it weakens competition.
Question A: Letting publicly traded European firms report earnings annually rather than quarterly would lead their executives to place more weight on long-term issues in their investments and other decisions.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Disagree
4
Uncertain
5
Comment: My view is not based on research but on beliefs formed by talking to businesses.
Question B: A switch from quarterly to annual earnings reports would, on net, benefit shareholders of European firms.
Question A: To the extent that public corporations pursue social and environmental initiatives, they tend to achieve higher risk-adjusted (private) returns than otherwise similar corporations that pursue such initiatives less.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Disagree
3
Disagree
5
Comment: I haven’t seen any evidence to support this claim and tested theory predicts the opposite. But if it’s a fad it can pay off, like any fad.
Question A: The fiscal rules of the European Union should give more flexibility to member countries.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
6
Uncertain
6
Question B: The Italian budget for 2019 that the European Commission rejected in October would have increased Italy’s risk of fiscal insolvency substantially.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Agree
7
Question C: If France runs a 2019 budget deficit of around 3.4% of GDP, as announced by President Macron’s government, France’s risk of fiscal insolvency will increase substantially.
Question A: Capping the number of ride-sharing drivers as is being discussed in New York City, Chicago and London will make the average resident in that city worse off.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Disagree
4
Uncertain
7
Comment: I am not an expert on this!
Question B:
To achieve a given level of congestion, it would be better to use taxes for driving that vary based on the level of congestion, rather than limiting the number of ride-sharing vehicles.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
6
Agree
8
Comment: I’m using basic micro theory; not evidence.
People who migrated to Europe between 2015 and 2018 are likely — over the next two decades — to contribute more in taxes paid than they receive in benefits and public services.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
7
Uncertain
6
Comment: In welfare states with poor integration the net monetary gain is likely negative. This does not mean one should not allow asylum seekers.
Question A: The European Commission has proposed new rules to ensure that “digital business activities are taxed in a fair and growth-friendly way in the EU”. Consider two statements regarding this proposal:
An EU-wide 3% tax on revenue from digital activities would, on balance, be a good idea.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
5
Uncertain
5
Comment: I simply don’t understand the motivation.
Question B:
If the EU decides to tax digital service providers, it would be better — given the difficulties of measuring and verifying digital activity — to tax them on the revenue, rather than the profits, that they generate locally.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
No Opinion
Uncertain
5
Comment: It depends on the motivation behind the tax, which I don’t understand.
The European Union often uses its antitrust powers to protect EU-based firms from international competition, rather than to promote greater competition in European markets.
Question A: Trade with China makes most Europeans better off because, among other advantages, they can buy goods that are made or assembled more cheaply in China.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
8
Agree
8
Question B: Some Europeans who work in the production of competing goods, such as clothing and furniture, are made worse off by trade with China.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
8
Agree
7
Question C: If the EU followed the new US steel tariffs by imposing similar EU tariffs on steel from China, it would improve Europeans’ welfare.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
6
Strongly Disagree
7
Comment: It might trigger further tariff increased.
Question A: Assuming it exits its third bailout program this summer without an immediate restructuring or other debt relief, Greece is unlikely to default on its sovereign debt in the coming decade.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
2
Uncertain
6
Question B: Greece would be better off if it had decided to exit the euro between 2011 and 2015.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
2
Disagree
7
Question C: If Greece had defaulted on (or restructured) its private debt in 2010, while also staying within the euro, that combination would have been better for Greece than either exiting the euro or proceeding as it has actually done.
The US spends roughly 17% of GDP on healthcare, according to the OECD; most European countries spend less than 12% of GDP.
Higher quality-adjusted US healthcare prices contribute relatively more to the extra US spending than does the combination of higher quantity and quality of US care (interpreting quantity and quality to reflect both greater American healthcare needs due to underlying population health and the delivery of more or better healthcare services to Americans).
Over the past two years, all else equal, the appeal of the US as a destination for immigrants has changed in ways that will likely decrease innovation in the US economy.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
5
Agree
7
Comment: President Trump is broadly disliked by highly educated people abroad and my GUESS is that these people think twice before moving to the U.S.
Holding other policies fixed, the average European would be better off if every European country taxed corporate profits at a rate of 20% (based as closely as possible on a common definition of profits).
Question B: If other policies were held fixed and every European country taxed corporate profits at a common rate of 20%, then reducing that common rate substantially below 20% would make the average European better off.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
6
Strongly Disagree
6
Comment: It depends on how the resulting debt will be financed.
Question A: All else equal, if corporations throughout Europe set quotas for a minimum number of women board members, the shareholder value of European companies would increase.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
3
Uncertain
5
Comment: Initially the reaction may be the opposite but my belief is that over the longer run it would be a plus. No data to back it up though!
Question B: Taking into account the likely effects on investments in human capital by men and women, setting quotas throughout Europe for a minimum number of women board members would generate substantial net benefits for Europeans.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Uncertain
5
Comment: It's about making use of the talents of the entire population: good for prosperity. Much of management is (male) networking.
Question A: Subsidizing renewable energy sources is better than taxing fossil fuels, assuming the subsidy or tax would be set at levels that would reduce carbon emissions by an equivalent amount.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Disagree
9
Disagree
6
Comment: A tax is a more direct instrument for reducing emissions - the main goal - and R&D subsidies are at best an imperfect substitute.
Question B: Germany’s solar-energy subsidies to date have produced net social benefits for Germany.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
8
Disagree
5
Comment: My understanding is that they have been very costly and not paid back for Germany.
Question C: Solar-energy subsidies to date in Germany and other countries have produced net social benefits for the world.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Uncertain
5
Comment: The R&D has had benefits and the point is that they are global, not German-specific. I have not seen any cost-benefit analysis though.
Insights from psychology about individual behavior – examples of which include limited rationality, low self-control, or a taste for fairness – predict several important types of observed market outcomes that fully-rational economic models do not.
The influx of refugees into Germany beginning in the summer of 2015 will generate net economic benefits for German citizens over the succeeding decade.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
5
Uncertain
6
Comment: The adjustment likely takes longer (even though German labor markets allow low entry wages). Eventually the average benefits will be > 0.
Question A: Holding labor market institutions and job training fixed, rising use of robots and artificial intelligence is likely to increase substantially the number of workers in advanced countries who are unemployed for long periods.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
8
Uncertain
6
Comment: Perhaps unemployment could rise in the short run but employment will respond to labor supply: there will be jobs.
Question B: Rising use of robots and artificial intelligence in advanced countries is likely to create benefits large enough that they could be used to compensate those workers who are substantially negatively affected for their lost wages.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
9
Agree
6
Comment: If it is profitable to employ robots it is very likely more efficient. So almost by definition they increase production efficiency.
Question A: Consumers will be better off, on balance, if European cities treat firms that provide ride-sharing platforms (such as Uber) as substantively different from taxi firms, and thus not necessarily warranting the same regulation.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
9
Uncertain
6
Question B: Assuming that taxi and ride-sharing companies were treated as substantively similar — including requirements that they operate on an equal footing regarding safety, insurance and taxation — letting ride-sharing services compete without restrictions on prices or routes would raise consumer welfare.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
9
Agree
7
Question C: Regardless of how ride-sharing services are treated, existing regulations for traditional taxi firms in many European cities harm consumers by limiting competition.
Question A: Revising France’s labor market policies — by reducing employment protection, decentralizing labor negotiations to the firm level, and making training programs more accessible and responsive to labor demands — would, all else equal, increase productivity in France’s economy.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
8
Agree
7
Comment: Managing training programs is not necessarily so easy but I take the view that significant improvement is feasible.
Question B: Reducing employment protection would reduce the equilibrium unemployment rate in France.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
8
Agree
7
Comment: It may not do so immediately. One can do a reform with grandfathering though, leaving currently employed workers with protection.
Question A: The ECB's asset purchases over the past two years have reduced the threat of deflation in the euro area as a whole.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Agree
7
Question B: If the economic outlook in the euro area becomes less favorable, then increasing the ECB's asset purchase program (in size or duration) would substantially increase the euro area's economic growth over the following five years.
In general, absent any inside information, an equity investor can expect to do better by holding a well-diversified, low-fee, passive index fund than by holding a few stocks.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
9
Strongly Agree
9
Comment: I don't know of any convincing systematic evidence to the contrary.
Question A: Without changes in policy, a rising share of people who are over age 65 will exert a substantial downward influence on per capita real GDP in western European countries.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
9
Agree
7
Comment: Mechanical argument but correct; behavioral responses exist but are limited.
Question B: In European countries where the share of those over 65 is rising, there are net social benefits to adjusting retirement ages for state-financed (including pay-as-you-go) pension systems upwards, so that revised retirement ages better reflect longer life expectancies.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
9
Agree
8
Comment: To the extent there is cont'd general productivity growth and we get richer, people may want more leisure, but this effect is likely small.
Question A: All else equal, there are substantial advantages to having much of
Europe’s human capital and infrastructure for international financial activity
clustered in a single city, as they are at present in London.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
2
Agree
7
Comment: It's not clear to me what the positive agglomeration activities are. Agglomeration can be bad too. But I'm far from an expert on this!
Question B: All else equal, Britain’s rules on hiring, firing and working hours are significantly more conducive to financial activity than those in other large European countries.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
2
Agree
7
Comment: Not obvious that labor regulation is that relevant in this particular sector. It is in others but finance is full of other incentives.
Question A: Setting the EU rules aside, and assuming it would take 2.5% of Italy’s GDP to recapitalize its banks, the Italian government would improve financial stability in Europe if it injected this amount of public funds into its banks.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Agree
7
Comment: I don't have enough info to say that it would help financial institutions elsewhere; depends on cross-holdings. In long run it's likely bad.
Question B: If Italy were to inject public funds into its banks without imposing losses on at least some claimants, an important cost would be the effect on future incentives (economic or political) in Europe.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
7
Agree
8
Comment: The expectations of future bailouts will likely be affected and induce excessive risk-taking.
Question A: Because of the Brexit vote's outcome, the UK's real per-capita income level is likely to be lower a decade from now than it would have been otherwise.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
8
Agree
8
Comment: There is some small chance that the EU will malfunction badly in the future, in which case Brexit may be good ex post.
Question B: Because of the Brexit vote's outcome, the rest of the EU's real per-capita income level is likely to be lower a decade from now than it would have been otherwise.
In general, using more congestion charges in crowded transportation networks — such as higher tolls during peak travel times in cities, and peak fees for airplane takeoff and landing slots — and using the proceeds to lower other taxes would make citizens on average better off.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
8
Strongly Agree
8
Comment: this approach works in theory and seems to also work in practice
On the whole, the shift from state to private ownership of many industrial assets in central and eastern European countries after communism has increased productivity in those countries.
Question A: Freer movement of goods and services across borders within Europe has made the average western European citizen better off since the 1980s.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
8
Strongly Agree
8
Comment: I am not a trade economist by specialization, which explains why I selected somewhat limited confidence.
Question B: Freer movement of goods and services across borders within Europe has made many low-skilled western European citizens worse off since the 1980s.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
8
Disagree
7
Comment: I think mist low-wage competition is from outside of Europe. Of course some always lose from trade. But many low-skilled workers gain too.
Question A: Giving tax incentives to specific firms to locate operations in a country typically generates domestic benefits that outweigh the costs to the country providing the incentives.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Disagree
7
Uncertain
6
Comment: this is good policy only if the government is able to select the right companies - which it is typically not
Question B: Europe as a whole benefits when European cities or countries compete with each other by giving tax incentives to firms to locate operations in their jurisdictions.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
7
Disagree
7
Comment: if we think corporate taxes are too low this may be a good thing, but it is then better to just lower them across the board
Question A: Freer movement of people to live and work across borders within Europe has made the average western European citizen better off since the 1980s.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
8
Agree
8
Comment: People migrate because they want to. Secondary effects are likely positive too.
Question B: Freer movement of people to live and work across borders within Europe has made many low-skilled western European citizens worse off since the 1980s.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
8
Disagree
6
Comment: Same as trade question. Some gain, some lose, also among low-skilled workers.