About
- Frederick Henry Prince Distinguished Service Professor in Economics and the College
- President, Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (2021)
- Co-Editor of Econometrica (1996–00)
Voting History
Question A: Matching US import tariffs to the tariffs, value-added taxes and non-tariff barriers imposed on US goods by other countries would substantially reduce the US trade deficit.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
No Opinion |
Disagree |
5 |
|
|
Question B: The threat of retaliation against the imposition of higher tariffs on a country’s exports substantially lowers the probability of a trade war.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
1 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: Current trade wars seem to have more to do with the personalities of the politicians involved.
|
Question C: In the event that the threat of retaliation does not deter the imposition of tariffs, the economies of countries subject to higher tariffs on their exports would be measurably better off by responding with targeted tariffs on imports from the first mover.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
1 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: It's hard to see exactly what this question is asking. Is there a well-reasoned, empirically robust model of how trade wars evolve?
|
Question A: The president has signed an executive order that pauses enforcement of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act.
Permanently ending US enforcement of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act will substantially increase global levels of bribery and corruption.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
No Opinion |
Agree |
5 |
|
|
Question B: Permanently ending US enforcement of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act will substantially improve US businesses' long-term profits and long-term competitiveness.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
No Opinion |
Disagree |
5 |
|
|
Question A: The new administration has issued three executive orders related to energy and climate:
Declaring a National Energy Emergency: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/declaring-a-national-energy-emergency/
'The United States’ insufficient energy production, transportation, refining, and generation constitutes an unusual and extraordinary threat to our Nation’s economy, national security, and foreign policy. In light of these findings, I hereby declare a national emergency.'
Insufficient energy production, transportation, refining, and generation constitute a substantial threat to the US economy.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Disagree |
8 |
Disagree |
7 |
|
Question B: Unleashing American Energy: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/unleashing-american-energy/
'The calculation of the “social cost of carbon” is marked by logical deficiencies, a poor basis in empirical science, politicization, and the absence of a foundation in legislation… rendering the United States economy internationally uncompetitive… the Administrator of the EPA shall issue guidance to address these harmful and detrimental inadequacies, including consideration of eliminating the “social cost of carbon” calculation from any Federal permitting or regulatory decision.'
Eliminating the ‘social cost of carbon’ calculation from any Federal permitting or regulatory decision would substantially improve the international competitiveness of the US economy.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Disagree |
8 |
Disagree |
6 |
|
Question C: Putting America First in International Environmental Agreements: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/putting-america-first-in-international-environmental-agreements/
'In recent years, the United States has purported to join international agreements and initiatives that do not reflect our country’s values or our contributions to the pursuit of economic and environmental objectives… The United States Ambassador to the United Nations shall immediately submit formal written notification of the United States’ withdrawal from the Paris Agreement under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.'
Withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement will deliver a measurable boost to US economic growth over the next four years.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Disagree |
8 |
Disagree |
5 |
|
Question A: California's insurance industry regulator issued statements shortly before and shortly after the recent wildfires started (on December 30, 2024, and January 9, 2025):
https://www.insurance.ca.gov/0400-news/0100-press-releases/2024/release065-2024.cfm
https://www.insurance.ca.gov/0400-news/0100-press-releases/2025/release005-2025.cfm
In the face of growing wildfire risks, price caps on insurance premiums have substantially reduced the viability of private property insurance markets in California.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
7 |
Agree |
6 |
|
Question B: A mandatory one-year moratorium on insurance non-renewals and cancellations would lead to a substantial longer-term reduction in the supply of private home insurance products and the number of households that are insured against catastrophic risk in areas of California affected by recent wildfires.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
7 |
Uncertain |
5 |
|
Question A: Doubling existing tariffs on imports from China of critical production components in solar energy manufacturing will provide a substantial boost to employment in the domestic 'cleantech' sector over the next five years.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
No Opinion |
Uncertain |
5 |
|
|
Question B: Disruptions to global supply chains from new tariffs and trade wars will lead to measurably slower global growth over the next five years.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
1 |
Agree |
5 |
|
Given that much of the Department of Education's budget is allocated to postsecondary education (including Pell grants and student loans), closing the department would have no measurable effect on the average K to 12th grade school student.
Link: https://www.kentclarkcenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/USDeptOfEducation_2024_Appropriations.pdf
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
1 |
Disagree |
5 |
|
Question A: The Trustees of the U.S. Social Security system currently estimate that the OASI trust fund will be exhausted in 2033, after which substantial benefit cuts are mandated without a change in the law.
The response to the impending exhaustion of the OASI trust fund is likely to rely more on general government borrowing than on increases in social security taxes or reductions in social security benefits.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
3 |
Agree |
5 |
|
Question B: As in the most recent major change in Social Security finances (adopted in 1983), the most prudent way to address the impending exhaustion of the OASI trust fund would feature a balanced combination of payroll tax increases and reductions in the benefits received for any given retirement age.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
8 |
Agree |
5 |
|
Question A: The institutions of society - such as constitutions, laws, judiciaries, and property rights - substantially shape economic decisions, policies, and outcomes.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
10 |
Strongly Agree |
8 |
Comment: A slogan it's hard to disagree with.
|
Question B: On average and over the long term, democracies deliver substantially better economic growth than other forms of government.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
10 |
Agree |
6 |
Comment: Plenty of examples on both sides of this: non-democratic countries that have done very well and democracies that are, economically, abysmal failures.
|
Question C: Countries where democracy and the rule of law are weakened are likely to experience measurable damage to their economic performance.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
5 |
Agree |
6 |
Comment: Democracy and rule of law are not the same thing. Bad questions.
|
Question A: The Democrats and Republicans have floated the idea of a US sovereign wealth fund. For background, see here and here.
Establishing a domestic sovereign wealth fund to invest in infrastructure, emerging technologies, and/or strategic sectors would bring substantial benefits to the US economy over a ten-year horizon.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Disagree |
9 |
Disagree |
6 |
Comment: Investing in infrastructure would be a good idea. But why the SWF? Who will pick the portfolio? For the U.S., it sounds like badly thought-out gimmick.
|
Question B: The typical advanced economy could substantially boost growth by establishing a sovereign wealth fund to invest in infrastructure, emerging technologies, and/or strategic sectors.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Disagree |
9 |
Disagree |
5 |
Comment: Countries that have made good use of SWF's are Chile, Norway and a few others with highly volatile earnings from export raw materials like copper and oil. Few developed countries are in this situation.
|
Question C: For a typical advanced economy, establishing a sovereign wealth fund would be substantially better for citizens relative to paying down the debt as a use for excess revenue.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Disagree |
9 |
Disagree |
5 |
Comment: The SWF would be a better investment if it had a higher rate of return and little risk.
But choosing the investment portfolio would an additional political football the U.S. doesn't need.
|
Question A: Capping annual rent increases by corporate landlords at 5%, as proposed by President Biden, would make middle-income Americans substantially better off over the next ten years.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Disagree |
8 |
Disagree |
6 |
|
Question B: Capping annual rent increases at 5%, as proposed by President Biden, would substantially reduce the amount of available apartments for rent over the next ten years.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
9 |
Agree |
5 |
|
Question C: Capping annual rent increases at 5%, as proposed by President Biden, would substantially reduce US income inequality over the next ten years.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Disagree |
8 |
Disagree |
5 |
|
Question A: All else equal, making permanent the 2017 tax cuts that were set to expire at the end of 2025 would substantially increase federal deficits and the federal debt over the coming decade.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
7 |
Agree |
7 |
|
Question B: All else equal, making permanent the 2017 tax cuts that were set to expire at the end of 2025 would measurably increase the rate of US economic growth over the coming decade.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Disagree |
6 |
Disagree |
5 |
|
Question C: In the US, given Congressional budget scoring rules, temporary tax cuts generate sufficient pressure for extension as to be effectively permanent.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
No Opinion |
Uncertain |
5 |
|
|
Question A: The lower willingness of private firms to go public, combined with the increased number of publicly traded firms being taken private over the last 25 years, is measurably net negative for economic growth.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
No Opinion |
Uncertain |
5 |
|
|
Question B: All else equal, reducing regulatory barriers (including reporting requirements such as Sarbanes Oxley 404) to public listing would substantially increase the share of publicly traded firms in the economy.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
No Opinion |
Agree |
4 |
|
|
Question C: The lack of transparency about unlisted private firms' financial performance substantially hinders the efficiency of the allocation of capital.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
No Opinion |
Uncertain |
5 |
|
|
Question A: Antitrust investigations of the dominant firms in artificial intelligence are likely to lead to substantially lower prices of AI products and services for businesses and consumers.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Disagree |
5 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: It's a new industry, and there seems to be a lot of innovation and competition.
|
Question B: Antitrust investigations of the dominant firms in artificial intelligence are likely to promote greater competition and innovation in AI.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Disagree |
5 |
Uncertain |
5 |
|
Question C: Potential harms from artificial intelligence are better assessed by market deployment rather than seeking to slow the pace of AI research and implementation.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
No Opinion |
Uncertain |
5 |
|
|
Question A: The proposed US tariffs on Chinese EVs would lead to measurably higher employment in the US automotive industry over the next five years.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
1 |
Uncertain |
5 |
|
Question B: The proposed US tariffs on Chinese EVs would lead to measurably higher prices of EVs in the US.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
1 |
Agree |
7 |
|
Question C: The proposed US tariffs on Chinese EVs would measurably slow the adoption of green technology by consumers.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Disagree |
3 |
Agree |
5 |
|
Reclassifying marijuana as a Schedule III drug would lead to measurably higher social welfare.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
6 |
Agree |
5 |
Comment: Direct effects: lower cost for sellers through a tax change, and an upward shift in demand. Hence sales will increase, leading to more and better targets for armed robberies, since it will still be a cash-only business. There will be winners and losers. On net, ambiguous.
|
Question A: Tripling existing import taxes on Chinese steel and aluminum products would lead to measurably higher employment in the US steel industry over the next five years.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
5 |
Uncertain |
5 |
|
Question B: Tripling the tariffs would lead to measurably higher steel and aluminum prices for American producers and measurably higher finished-good prices for American consumers.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
3 |
Agree |
5 |
|
Question C: The gains for the American economy from tripling the tariffs would measurably outweigh the losses.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
1 |
Disagree |
5 |
Comment: Tariffs have direct effects, but they are also bargaining chips. It is hard to assess how those factors add up.
|
Universities that abandon temporary pandemic test-optional policies and return to requiring standardized test scores for admissions will create measurably enhanced opportunities for potentially high-achieving students from low-income backgrounds.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
2 |
Agree |
6 |
|
Question A: The FTC is opposed to Kroger’s proposed acquisition of Albertsons. Critics argue that with sufficient divestitures, the deal would be consistent with past FTC policies.
Kroger’s proposed acquisition of Albertsons would lead to substantially higher grocery prices and/or lower product quality/services for customers of the two companies in locations where both are present.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
9 |
Uncertain |
4 |
Comment: less competition will raise prices and reduce quality
|
Question B: Kroger’s proposed acquisition of Albertsons would have a substantially negative effect on workers at the two companies in locations where both are present.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
5 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: the affected workers have many outside options, so it is unclear it the merger would affect them substantially
|
Question A: Allowing Medicare to negotiate prices with pharmaceutical companies will lead to a substantial reduction in the costs of prescription drugs for US retirees.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
10 |
Agree |
5 |
Comment: Negotiated prices would be closer to what buyers abroad pay.
|
Question B: Allowing imports of medicines from Canada will lead to a substantial reduction in the costs of prescription drugs for US consumers without compromising safety.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
10 |
Agree |
5 |
Comment: Competition lowers prices.
|
Question A: A tolling program for New York City is out for public consultation with proposed charges on vehicles entering the central business district of Manhattan summarized here: https://new.mta.info/document/129191
The proposed tolls on vehicles entering the central business district of Manhattan are likely to lead to a substantial reduction in traffic congestion in the targeted area.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
5 |
Agree |
5 |
Comment: The tools are high enough to have a substantial impact.
|
Question B: The proposed tolls on vehicles entering Manhattan are likely to lead to a substantial increase in traffic congestion just outside the central business district, above 60th Street, in the outer boroughs and New Jersey.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
1 |
Uncertain |
4 |
Comment: Without some knowledge about what NYC commuting patterns look like, it's hard to say.
|
Question A: The economic and financial sanctions against Russia are substantially limiting its ability to wage war on Ukraine.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
7 |
Uncertain |
4 |
Comment: Still true, although the effects of the sanctions have been declining gradually over the last year, as Russia has discovered and cultivated work-arounds that reduce the impact of the sanctions. For example, oil is exported in “ghost” ships with transfers at sea.
|
Question B: In the absence of continuing flows of Western economic aid, Ukraine's wartime economy will be substantially compromised.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
9 |
Strongly Agree |
7 |
Comment: True. I take “Western” to mean NATO countries plus their allies. Ukraine is much smaller than Russia in terms of both manpower and material resources. Ukraine has a technological edge, and it is the defender while Russia is the aggressor, but fighting a war against Russia alone
|
Although there are many issues for Scotland’s voters to consider, one consequence of separating from the rest of the UK would be greater macroeconomic instability for Scotland for many years.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
4 |
Agree |
5 |
Comment: Not obvious why fluctuations would be greater. It depends also on what happens to the currency and what happens with the EU.
|
Question A: Because the US has underspent on new projects, maintenance, or both, the federal government has an opportunity to increase average incomes by spending more on roads, railways, bridges and airports. (The experts panel previously voted on this question on May 23, 2013. Those earlier results can be found here.)
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Did Not Answer | Agree |
6 |
|
|
Question B: Past experience of public spending and political economy suggests that if the government spent more on roads, railways, bridges and airports, many of the projects would have low or negative returns. (The experts panel previously voted on this question on May 23, 2013. Those earlier results can be found here.)
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Did Not Answer | Uncertain |
5 |
|
|
Question A: By discounting pension liabilities at high interest rates under government accounting standards, many U.S. state and local governments understate their pension liabilities and the costs of providing pensions to public-sector workers. (The experts panel previously voted on this question on October 1, 2012. Those earlier results can be found here.)
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Did Not Answer | Agree |
7 |
|
|
Question B: During the next two decades some U.S. states, unless they substantially increase taxes, cut spending, and/or change public-sector pensions, will require a combination of severe austerity budgets, a federal bailout, and/or default. (The experts panel previously voted on this question on October 1, 2012. Those earlier results can be found here.)
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Did Not Answer | Agree |
6 |
|
|
New technology for fracking natural gas, by lowering energy costs in the United States, will make US industrial firms more cost competitive and thus significantly stimulate the growth of US merchandise exports. (The experts panel previously voted on this question on May 23, 2012. Those earlier results can be found here.)
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Did Not Answer | Uncertain |
5 |
|
|
Question A: Because of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, the U.S. unemployment rate was lower at the end of 2010 than it would have been without the stimulus bill. (The experts panel previously voted on this question on February 15, 2012. Those earlier results can be found here.)
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Did Not Answer | Agree |
7 |
|
|
Question B: Taking into account all of the ARRA’s economic consequences — including the economic costs of raising taxes to pay for the spending, its effects on future spending, and any other likely future effects — the benefits of the stimulus will end up exceeding its costs. (The experts panel previously voted on this question on February 15, 2012. Those earlier results can be found here.)
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Did Not Answer | Agree |
6 |
|
|
Legislation introduced in Congress would require the Federal Reserve to "submit to the appropriate congressional committees…a Directive Policy Rule", which shall "describe the strategy or rule of the Federal Open Market Committee for the systematic quantitative adjustment of the Policy Instrument Target to respond to a change in the Intermediate Policy Inputs." Should the Fed deviate from the rule, the Fed Chair would have to "testify before the appropriate congressional committees as to why the [rule]…is not in compliance." Enacting this provision would improve monetary policy outcomes in the U.S.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Disagree |
8 |
Disagree |
7 |
Comment: A central bank should be independent. Look at Argentina as an example of where political oversight leads.
|
Question A: All else equal, Patent Assertion Entities — which specialize in acquiring and asserting patents and are popularly known as “patent trolls" — promote innovation in the U.S.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
1 |
Disagree |
5 |
|
Question B: Within the software industry, the US patent system makes consumers better off than they would be in the absence of patents.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
5 |
Uncertain |
6 |
|
There is a social value to having institutions that issue liquid liabilities that are backed by illiquid assets.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
8 |
Agree |
8 |
Comment: Bills of exchange and other "liquid asset" go back many centuries.
|
Question A: Employers that discriminate in hiring will be at a competitive disadvantage, if their customers do not care about their mix of employees, compared with firms that do not discriminate.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
10 |
Agree |
6 |
Comment: See The Economics of Discrimination; Gary S. Becker; Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1957.
|
Question B: Rising market wages are an important reason — over and above any changes in medical technology, social norms or preferences — why family sizes have fallen over the past century in rich countries.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
10 |
Agree |
6 |
Comment: See "On the Interaction between the Quantity and Quality of Children." Gary S. Becker and H. Gregg Lewis; JPE, 1973, 81.
|
Considering both distributional effects and changes in efficiency, it is a good idea to let companies that send video or other content to consumers pay more to Internet service providers for the right to send that traffic using faster or higher quality service.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
5 |
Uncertain |
5 |
|
The recent oversubscribed debt issues of Greece and Portugal suggest that sovereign default by any euro area country is unlikely in the foreseeable future.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
3 |
Uncertain |
6 |
Comment: The ECB seems committed to averting defaults.
|
If the NCAA let colleges pay athletes with more than scholarships (which currently may cover tuition, books, room and board), then top colleges in men’s basketball and football would pay most athletes substantial sums beyond full scholarships.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
1 |
Agree |
7 |
Comment: Presumably this is the definition of "top colleges in ... ."
|
Past experience suggests that economic sanctions do little to deter the target countries from their course of action.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
No Opinion |
Uncertain |
5 |
|
|
A market that allows payment for human kidneys should be established on a trial basis to help extend the lives of patients with kidney disease.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
1 |
Uncertain |
7 |
Comment: It would surely save lives of those with kidney disease. It would probably have unintended consequences as well.
|
Question A: Advancing automation has not historically reduced employment in the United States.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
10 |
Agree |
7 |
Comment: If this had been true over the last two centuries, almost no one would be working anymore.
|
Question B: Information technology and automation are a central reason why median wages have been stagnant in the US over the past decade, despite rising productivity.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
6 |
Uncertain |
6 |
Comment: The wage distribution has expanded and compressed over long periods. Technology is probably, involved, but it is unclear exactly how.
|
Future innovations worldwide will not be transformational enough to promote sustained per-capita economic growth rates in the U.S. and western Europe over the next century as high as those over the past 150 years.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
10 |
Uncertain |
6 |
Comment: Views on this are pure speculation. There is no economic theory or empirical evidence to inform the issue.
|
Informed postmortems of Ben Bernanke’s Fed chairmanship will judge favorably the Fed's creative and aggressive policy initiatives from autumn 2008 through early 2009.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
10 |
Agree |
7 |
Comment: Bernanke understood very well the policy errors of the Fed during the Great Depression and had the courage to avoid repeating them.
|
Using surge pricing to allocate transportation services — such as Uber does with its cars — raises consumer welfare through various potential channels, such as increasing the supply of those services, allocating them to people who desire them the most, and reducing search and queuing costs.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
No Opinion |
Agree |
8 |
|
|
Giving specific presents as holiday gifts is inefficient, because recipients could satisfy their preferences much better with cash.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
10 |
Disagree |
7 |
Comment: For many (most?) gifts, "efficiency" is not the point.
|
Question A: The average US citizen would be better off if a larger number of low-skilled foreign workers were legally allowed to enter the US each year.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
8 |
Agree |
5 |
|
Question B: Unless they were compensated by others, many low-skilled American workers would be substantially worse off if a larger number of low-skilled foreign workers were legally allowed to enter the US each year.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
8 |
Agree |
6 |
|
In general, absent any inside information, an equity investor can expect to do better by choosing a well-diversified, low-cost index fund than by picking a few stocks.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
10 |
Strongly Agree |
9 |
Comment: You could do the diversification and periodic rebalancing yourself, and perhaps save a few dollars in transaction costs, but why bother?
|
Question A: Enactment of the Senate bill to subject the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and discount window decisions to an audit by the Comptroller General of the U.S. would improve the Fed's legitimacy without hurting its decision making.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Disagree |
9 |
Strongly Disagree |
7 |
Comment: Central bank independence is important.
|
Question B: The Fed should not reduce its purchases of mortgage-backed securities and treasurys until there is clearer evidence of strong and sustained employment growth.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
8 |
Agree |
5 |
Comment: The question is somewhat vague: clearer than what? Consistency in policy is important, so continuing is probably useful.
|
Allowing Internet service providers to charge content companies for access to the ISPs' customers would provide net benefits to consumers.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
No Opinion |
Disagree |
5 |
|
|
Question A: If the United States fails to make scheduled interest or principal payments on government debt securities, even as an unintended consequence of political brinksmanship, US families and businesses are likely to suffer severe economic harm.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
8 |
Agree |
6 |
Comment: Financial turmoil and a higher interest rate on the huge debt will harm everyone.
|
Question B: With or without a default, current uncertainty over future taxing and spending policies of the US government is likely to depress private investment and hiring by enough to reduce GDP growth by at least a quarter of a percentage point over the next 12 months.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
8 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: A comprehensive tax/entitlement reform, one that would fix US fiscal problems for the next forty years, would be a great "stimulus package."
|
Experience over the past 30 years shows that for the typical emerging market nation facing rapid capital outflows, spending foreign currency reserves to defend its currency is a better policy for its citizens than not doing so.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
No Opinion |
Disagree |
4 |
|
|
If regulators had not approved mergers in the past decade between major networked airlines, travelers would be better off today.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
4 |
Uncertain |
4 |
Comment: Hard to say whether the benefits from economies of scale have outweighed the increase in monopoly power.
|
Conventional economic reasoning suggests that it would be a good policy to enact the recent Senate bill that would let undergraduate students borrow through the government Stafford program at interest rates equivalent to the primary credit rates offered to banks through the Federal Reserve's discount window.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
No Opinion |
Uncertain |
5 |
|
|
An effective way to increase savings rates of employees whose firms have defined contribution plans is to combine automatic enrollment in those plans and periodic automatic increases in their contributions (with the ability to opt out of either).
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
8 |
Agree |
7 |
Comment: See Thaler and Sunstein's "Nudge."
|
Sustained tax and spending policies that boost consumption in ways that reduce the saving rate are likely to lower long-run living standards.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
8 |
Agree |
7 |
Comment: Unclear what is meant by a "spending policy that boosts consumption."
|
Slavery in the United States was eradicated because of social and political events, not because it was an unprofitable institution for slaveholders.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
8 |
Agree |
7 |
Comment: Bob Fogel, who was an exemplary scholar, a courteous colleague, and a warm, kind person. He will be greatly missed.
|
Restricting US exports of liquefied natural gas would have adverse effects on the US economy.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
No Opinion |
Agree |
6 |
|
|
Question A: Because the US has underspent on new projects, maintenance, or both, the federal government has an opportunity to increase average incomes by spending more on roads, railways, bridges and airports.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
5 |
Agree |
6 |
Comment: Many roads and bridges need repair.
|
Question B: Past experience of public spending and political economy suggests that if the government spent more on roads, railways, bridges and airports, many of the projects would have low or negative returns.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
5 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: In the past both good and bad projects have been funded. The proportion of each? Hard to say without more careful study.
|
Reducing the income-tax deductibility of charitable gifts is a less distortionary way to raise new revenue than raising the same amount of revenue through a proportional increase in all marginal tax rates.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
5 |
Agree |
6 |
Comment: Altruism is one motive for charity, and standard conclusions about "distorting" effects of taxes may not apply in settings with altruism.
|
A bitcoin's value derives solely from the belief that others will want to use it for trade, which implies that its purchasing power is likely to fluctuate over time to a degree that will limit its usefulness.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
6 |
Agree |
6 |
Comment: As is true for any fiat money---and also for any commodity money.
|
Countries that let their debt loads get high risk losing control of their own fiscal sustainability, through an adverse feedback loop in which doubts by lenders lead to higher government bond rates, which in turn make debt problems more severe.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
10 |
Agree |
7 |
Comment: With debt/GDP around unity, a substantial risk premium can be the difference between the debt load being "sustainable" and "unsustainable."
|
Refusing to liberalize trade unless partner countries adopt new labor or environmental rules is a bad policy, because even if the new standards would reduce distortions on some dimensions, such a policy involves threatening to maintain large distortions in the form of restricted trade.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
8 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: This question is to broad/vague to be meaningful. Specific instances would probably lead to different answers.
|
Using government funds to guarantee preschool education for four-year olds would yield a much lower social return than the ones achieved by the most highly touted targeted preschool initiatives.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
8 |
Uncertain |
4 |
Comment: Recent reserach suggests that the large gains from expanding preschool will come if funds are targeted toward disadvantaged families.
-see background information here |
Question A:
Raising the federal minimum wage to $9 per hour would make it noticeably harder for low-skilled workers to find employment.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
8 |
Uncertain |
5 |
|
Question B:The distortionary costs of raising the federal minimum wage to $9 per hour and indexing it to inflation are sufficiently small compared with the benefits to low-skilled workers who can find employment that this would be a desirable policy.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
1 |
Uncertain |
5 |
|
The average US citizen would be better off if a larger number of highly educated foreign workers were legally allowed to immigrate to the US each year.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
10 |
Agree |
7 |
|
The persistent deflation in Japan since 1997 could have been avoided had the Bank of Japan followed different monetary policies.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
9 |
Agree |
6 |
Comment: A QE policy would likely have prevented the deflation.
|
Because all federal spending and taxes must be approved by both houses of Congress and the executive branch, a separate debt ceiling that has to be increased periodically creates unneeded uncertainty and can potentially lead to worse fiscal outcomes.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
No Opinion |
Agree |
7 |
|
|
The federal government would make the average U.S. citizen better off by using policies that directly focus more on increasing small business growth than growth of economic output overall.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Disagree |
8 |
Disagree |
6 |
|
The annual indexing of Social Security benefits to increases in the consumer price index for urban wage earners and clerical workers (the CPI-W) leads to higher benefits than would be required to compensate recipients for genuine cost-of-living increases.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
1 |
Uncertain |
6 |
|
The Brookings Institution recently described a US carbon tax of $20 per ton, increasing at 4% per year, which would raise an estimated $150 billion per year in federal revenues over the next decade. Given the negative externalities created by carbon dioxide emissions, a federal carbon tax at this rate would involve fewer harmful net distortions to the US economy than a tax increase that generated the same revenue by raising marginal tax rates on labor income across the board.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
6 |
Agree |
7 |
|
Question A: Because federal spending on Medicare and Medicaid will continue to grow under current policy beyond the 10-year window of most political budget debates, it is easy for a politician to devise a budget plan that would reduce federal deficits over the next decade without really making the U.S. fiscally sustainable.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
9 |
Agree |
7 |
|
Question B: Comparing two plans that would reduce federal budget deficits by identical amounts in each of the next 10 years, one that did so partly by reducing significantly the long-term growth rate of Medicare and Medicaid spending would do more to make the U.S. budget fiscally sustainable than one that did not lower the growth of these spending programs.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
8 |
Agree |
7 |
|
Question A: Taking into account all of the economic consequences — including the incentives of banks to ensure their own liquidity and solvency in the future — the benefits of bailing out U.S. banks in 2008 will end up exceeding the costs.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
8 |
Agree |
6 |
|
Question B: Because GM and Chrysler were bailed out in 2008-09, the U.S. unemployment rate was lower at the end of 2010 than it would it have been if Congress and the executive branch had not intervened.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
8 |
Agree |
6 |
|
Question C: Taking into account all of the economic consequences — including effects on corporate managers' incentives and on creditors' expectations of how their claims will be treated in future bankruptcies — the benefits of bailing out GM and Chrysler will end up exceeding the costs.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
7 |
Uncertain |
6 |
|
Question A: The U.S government should make further efforts to shrink the size of the country's largest banks — such as by capping the size of their liabilities or penalizing large banks more heavily through taxes or other means — because the existing regulations do not require the biggest banks to internalize enough of the "too-big-to-fail" risks that they pose.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
7 |
Agree |
6 |
|
Question B:The economic benefits to the U.S. of having a handful of banks with balance sheets greater than $1 trillion are small.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
8 |
Agree |
5 |
|
Question A: The federal government would make the average U.S. citizen better off by using policies that directly focus more on increasing manufacturing employment than employment in other sectors.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Disagree |
8 |
Disagree |
6 |
Comment: Governments are usually poor at "picking winners."
|
Question B: Because firms and inventors do not capture the full returns from research and development, the government would increase the average well-being of Americans (and potentially of others too) by favoring R&D using the tax code.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
9 |
Agree |
6 |
|
Question A: Consider one of two proposals for restraining future Medicare spending, each by the same amount: The method that President Obama enacted in the Affordable Care Act — reducing Medicare-related payments to private insurers and altering the payment system for doctors and hospitals — imposes risks on future Medicare patients because over time the supply of doctors, hospitals and insurers willing to offer them health services may decline in response to restrained payments.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
7 |
Agree |
6 |
Comment: If it becomes a serious problem, the reimbursement method or something else) will be modified.
|
Question B: Consider the other of two proposals for restraining future Medicare spending, each by the same amount: The method that Governor Romney advocates — giving future seniors a fixed payment for premiums and letting private insurers compete with Medicare — imposes risks on future Medicare patients because competition may not be powerful to enough to offer future seniors the same quality of care that is currently promised without supplementing their premium support.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
6 |
Agree |
6 |
Comment: It is not obvious what the current system "promises" to a fifty- or sixty-year old.
|
Claims by incumbent presidents and challengers about how many private-sector jobs can be created in a four-year period by sector-level or other targeted policies should be viewed as rough guesses, because overall macroeconomic conditions drive aggregate employment in ways that dominate any net effects of polices that focus on specific industries or households.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
9 |
Agree |
8 |
|
Question A: One drawback of taxing capital income at a lower rate than labor income is that it gives people incentives to relabel income that policymakers find hard to categorize as "capital" rather than labor".
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
10 |
Agree |
7 |
|
Question B: Despite relabeling concerns, taxing capital income at a permanently lower rate than labor income would result in higher average long-term prosperity, relative to an alternative that generated the same amount of tax revenue by permanently taxing capital and labor income at equal rates instead.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Disagree |
8 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: Most evidence points to technical change as the main force behind long run growth. Capital accumulation plays a role only in the short run.
|
Question C: Although they do not always agree about the precise likely effects of different tax policies, another reason why economists often give disparate advice on tax policy is because they hold differing views about choices between raising average prosperity and redistributing income.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
10 |
Agree |
7 |
|
Question A: By discounting pension liabilities at high interest rates under government accounting standards, many U.S. state and local governments understate their pension liabilities and the costs of providing pensions to public-sector workers.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
8 |
Agree |
7 |
|
Question B: During the next two decades some U.S. states, unless they substantially increase taxes, cut spending, and/or change public-sector pensions, will require a combination of severe austerity budgets, a federal bailout, and/or default.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
8 |
Agree |
7 |
|
Question A: Even if the third round of quantitative easing that the Fed recently announced increases real GDP growth over the next two years, the increase will be inconsequential.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
2 |
Uncertain |
5 |
|
Question B: Even if the third round of quantitative easing that the Fed recently announced increases annual consumer price inflation over the next five years, the increase will be inconsequential.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Disagree |
2 |
Uncertain |
5 |
|
Question C:Even if inflationary pressures rise substantially as a result of quantitative easing and low interest rates, the Federal Reserve has ample tools to rein inflation back in if it chooses to do so.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Disagree |
2 |
Agree |
5 |
|
Question A: Ethanol content requirements and protectionism against imported ethanol (which includes fuel from sugarcane) raise food prices without significantly reducing carbon-dioxide emissions.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Did Not Answer | Agree |
7 |
|
|
Question B: A direct disincentive to emit carbon-dioxide, for example through a carbon tax or an emissions permit market, is more efficient than requiring the use of corn-based ethanol fuels.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Did Not Answer | Strongly Agree |
8 |
|
|
Question A: Even if all the official-sector funding that Greece received from 2010 through August 2012 is written off, propping up Greece to buy time for the rest of Europe to prepare for Greek default has been better for citizens of the Eurozone outside of Greece than a policy that would have cut off funding sooner.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
No Opinion |
Uncertain |
5 |
|
|
Question B: A substantial sovereign-debt default by some combination of Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain is a necessary condition for the euro area as a whole to grow at its pre-crisis trend rate over the next three years.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
No Opinion |
Disagree |
5 |
|
|
Question C: Unless there is a substantial default by some combination of Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain on their sovereign debt and commercial bank debt, plus credible reforms to prevent excessive borrowing in the future, the euro area is headed for a costly financial meltdown and a prolonged recession.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
No Opinion |
Uncertain |
4 |
|
|
The current trade barriers in the U.S. sugar industry raise the profits of sugar producers and make the typical U.S. consumer pay more for sugar and goods that use sugar as an input.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
10 |
Agree |
7 |
|
Question A: Loans to students attending for-profit colleges are especially risky because students attending them have had default rates that greatly exceed those for comparable students attending public and non-profit private institutions.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
No Opinion |
Uncertain |
5 |
|
|
Question B: Rules that tie each college's eligibility for federal student loans to its students' graduation rates and post-schooling employment outcomes would better protect taxpayers from losses on student loans.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
No Opinion |
Agree |
5 |
|
|
Question A: The way in which money market funds normally trade – at one dollar per share, even though the per-share value of the assets backing them varies over time – made them vulnerable to a run in 2008 before they received taxpayer guarantees.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
8 |
Agree |
8 |
|
Question B: Taxpayers would be better protected if each money market fund in the U.S. were instead required to trade at its floating net asset value.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
7 |
Uncertain |
7 |
Comment: Money market funds are mutual funds. They should not be allowed to pretend otherwise.
|
Question C: In the absence of floating net asset values, taxpayers would be better protected if each money market fund in the U.S. were required to set aside capital to protect against losses while holding back a portion of shareholders' cash for a time when they seek to withdraw all of their money.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
5 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: How much capital would be "enough" in case of a run? When would the waiting period be enforeced? This is a weak policy alternative.
|
Taxes or bans on large bottles of soft drinks containing sugar are not likely to have a significant effect on obesity rates because people will substitute towards consuming excessive calories in other ways.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
1 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: Is there any empirical work on this issue?
|
Subjecting online sales from out-of-state vendors to the same retail sales taxes imposed on in-state sales would raise more tax revenue in the states making this change while reducing the pro-online bias of current policy.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
8 |
Agree |
7 |
|
Consumers would not necessarily be better off if cable and satellite TV firms were required to offer a la carte pricing for individual channels, because the networks' programming charges and the satellite-and-cable fees could adjust in response to this rule.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
No Opinion |
Agree |
5 |
|
|
Long run fiscal sustainability in the U.S. will require cuts in currently promised Medicare and Medicaid benefits and/or tax increases that include higher taxes on households with incomes below $250,000.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
8 |
Agree |
8 |
|
Question A:Assuming that Germany eventually agrees to backstop the debt of southern European countries, the eurozone as a whole will be better off if that bailout is unconditional, rather than accompanied by the labor market reforms and future budget controls that Germany is demanding of countries in return.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Disagree |
7 |
Disagree |
6 |
Comment: Without structural reforms in the highly indebted countries, bailouts won't work. The Germans aren't going to bankroll the south forever.
|
Question B: If Germany fails to bail out the southern tier of Europe, its own economy will be hurt more — because of output and asset losses — than it would be by an unconditional bailout.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
1 |
Uncertain |
5 |
|
Question C: The main reason other eurozone countries need to worry about Greek banks losing access to ECB support is because the ensuing chaos in Greece could trigger bank runs in peripheral countries.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
3 |
Agree |
6 |
|
Question A: A cut in federal income tax rates in the US right now would lead to higher GDP within five years than without the tax cut.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
8 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: Vague question. Whose taxes? (The median "taxpayer" right now pays zero.) And where does the revenue come from?
|
Question B: A cut in federal income tax rates in the US right now would raise taxable income enough so that the annual total tax revenue would be higher within five years than without the tax cut.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Disagree |
7 |
Strongly Disagree |
7 |
Comment: Are we thinking of Japan as a model for this kind of "fiscal stimulus"?
|
Question A: Trade with China makes most Americans better off because, among other advantages, they can buy goods that are made or assembled more cheaply in China.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
8 |
Agree |
8 |
|
Question B: Some Americans who work in the production of competing goods, such as clothing and furniture, are made worse off by trade with China.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
8 |
Agree |
8 |
|
An important reason why private college and university tuition has risen faster than the CPI during the past few decades is because competition for faculty members — whose potential earnings in other sectors have steadily improved — has driven up their pay faster than their productivity.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
3 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: The rising skill premium is probably at work here.
|
If the fiscal changes that are planned under current US law take place next year — including Bush era tax cuts expiring, Medicare payment rates to doctors being cut, the AMT applying to many more taxpayers, and automatic cuts in defense and non-defense discretionary spending kicking in — then US real GDP growth in 2013 will be lower than it would be under the CBO's alternative fiscal scenario, in which the above changes do not occur.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
1 |
Agree |
7 |
Comment: If all these changes do kick in at the end of 2012, it is hard to imagine they would be left in place for all of 2013. So then what?
|
New technology for fracking natural gas, by lowering energy costs in the United States, will make US industrial firms more cost competitive and thus significantly stimulate the growth of US merchandise exports.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Disagree |
9 |
Disagree |
5 |
Comment: Energy costs are too small a share of total mfg costs to have a big impact. Labor costs are the lion's share of the total.
|
Cuba’s low per-capita income growth — 1.2 percent per year since 1960 —has more to do with Cuba’s own economic policies than with the U.S. embargo on trade and tourism.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
6 |
Agree |
6 |
|
Question A: Reducing the minimum retirement age in France from 62 back to age 60, permanently, would reduce long-term French economic growth and substantially raise French debt relative to GDP over time.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
7 |
Agree |
7 |
Comment: It would presumbly raise debt/GDP, as pension costs would be higher and tax revenues lower. The effect on LR growth is not at all clear.
|
Question B: France’s overall employment is higher today because of the 35 hour work week than it would be without a limit on weekly hours.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
1 |
Disagree |
6 |
|
Connecticut should pass its Senate Bill 60, which states that during a “severe weather event emergency, no person within the chain of distribution of consumer goods and services shall sell or offer to sell consumer goods or services for a price that is unconscionably excessive.”
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Disagree |
5 |
Disagree |
6 |
Comment: State legislatures should focus on more important questions.
|
The former head of the Transportation Security Administration is correct in arguing that randomizing airport “security procedures encountered by passengers (additional upper-torso pat-downs, a thorough bag search, a swab test of carry-ons, etc.), while not subjecting everyone to the full gamut" would make it "much harder for terrorists to learn how to evade security procedures."
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
1 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: Is there any theory or evidence on this point? Is it an issue about which economists have any special insight?
|
Laws that limit the resale of tickets for entertainment and sports events make potential audience members for those events worse off on average.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
6 |
Agree |
7 |
|
Prior to the crisis, the benefits from the funding advantage that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac had by virtue of perceived government support mostly went to their shareholders, rather than into substantially lower interest rates on residential mortgages.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
4 |
Uncertain |
5 |
|
Question A: If public school students had the option of taking the government money (local, state, federal) currently being spent on their own education and turning that money into vouchers that they could use towards covering the costs of any private school or public school of their choice (e.g. charter schools), most would be better off.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
6 |
Uncertain |
6 |
|
Question B: The main drawback to allowing all public school students to take the government money (local, state, federal) currently being spent on their own education and turning that money into vouchers that they could use towards covering the costs of any private school or public school of their choice (e.g. charter schools) would be that some students would not make an active choice and would be left with much worse peers and a weaker school.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
1 |
Agree |
5 |
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Question A: The average size of the 19 financial firms that just completed the Federal Reserve stress tests (i.e. the CCAR) would be substantially smaller if they did not have implicit government support.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
7 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: Presumably they are all competing to be in the TBTF group.
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Question B: The 19 financial firms that just completed the Federal Reserve stress tests (i.e. the CCAR) are big primarily because of economies of scale and scope, rather than because of implicit government support.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
1 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: Difficult to know how to interpret "big" and "primarily."
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Changes in U.S. gasoline prices over the past 10 years have predominantly been due to market factors rather than U.S. federal economic or energy policies.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
4 |
Agree |
8 |
Comment: US energy policy (about where drilling is permitted, energy taxes) affects market outcomes, so an either-or question is a little off base.
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Question A: Freer trade improves productive efficiency and offers consumers better choices, and in the long run these gains are much larger than any effects on employment.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
8 |
Agree |
8 |
Comment: Nevertheless, there are winners and losers. Trade does not make everybody better off, and a good policy should take this into account.
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Question B: On average, citizens of the U.S. have been better off with the North American Free Trade Agreement than they would have been if the trade rules for the U.S., Canada and Mexico prior to NAFTA had remained in place.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
7 |
Agree |
6 |
Comment: But the gains have probably been very small.
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Because the U.S. Treasury bailed out and backstopped banks (by injecting equity into them in late 2008, and later committing to provide public capital to any banks that failed the stress tests and could not raise private capital), the U.S. unemployment rate was lower at the end of 2010 than it would have been without these measures.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
9 |
Agree |
6 |
Comment: See Ch 7 of Friedman & Schwartz's Monetary History. It's fortunate we had a Central Banker who'd read it and had the courage to act on it.
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Loosening current licensing restrictions on the range of services that nurses, physician assistants, dental hygienists and pharmacists are permitted to perform would help patients on balance, because the additional safety risks would be small compared to the decreased costs in waiting time and fees.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
5 |
Agree |
6 |
Comment: There are surely some restrictions that could be loosened. Agreeing on which ones they are might be harder.
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Bans on the short selling of financial securities, such as stocks and government bonds, lead to prices that are further, on average, from their fundamental values.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
1 |
Agree |
5 |
Comment: I've never seen any evidence on this point.
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Question A: Because of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, the U.S. unemployment rate was lower at the end of 2010 than it would have been without the stimulus bill.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
8 |
Agree |
7 |
Comment: Block grants to the states allowed them to cut education, health, and other services by less as state tax revenues fell.
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Question B:Taking into account all of the ARRA’s economic consequences — including the economic costs of raising taxes to pay for the spending, its effects on future spending, and any other likely future effects — the benefits of the stimulus will end up exceeding its costs.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
No Opinion |
Uncertain |
6 |
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Comment: How can anyone imagine this question is answerable, given the current state of economic science?
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Local ordinances that limit rent increases for some rental housing units, such as in New York and San Francisco, have had a positive impact over the past three decades on the amount and quality of broadly affordable rental housing in cities that have used them.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Disagree |
9 |
Disagree |
6 |
Comment: The planets are lined up here: theory and evidence point in the same direction.
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Question A:
The typical chief executive officer of a publicly traded corporation in the U.S. is paid more than his or her marginal contribution to the firm's value.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
No Opinion |
Uncertain |
4 |
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Question B:Mandating that U.S. publicly listed corporations must allow shareholders to cast a non-binding vote on executive compensation was a good idea.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
1 |
Uncertain |
5 |
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One of the leading reasons for rising U.S. income inequality over the past three decades is that technological change has affected workers with some skill sets differently than others.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
9 |
Agree |
7 |
Comment: Investment-specific technical change together with capital-skill complementarity explains much of the increase in the skill premium.
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Question A:If the US replaced its discretionary monetary policy regime with a gold standard, defining a "dollar" as a specific number of ounces of gold, the price-stability and employment outcomes would be better for the average American.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Disagree |
7 |
Strongly Disagree |
8 |
Comment: There are much better ways to avoid excessive inflation, while maintaining the flexibility of a fiat currency.
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Question B: There are many factors besides US inflation risk that influence the current dollar price of gold.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
7 |
Strongly Agree |
9 |
Comment: Demand for gold seems to come from concern about the entire financial system. There are better ways to hedge inflation risk.
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In general, using more congestion charges in crowded transportation networks — such as higher tolls during peak travel times in cities, and peak fees for airplane takeoff and landing slots — and using the proceeds to lower other taxes would make citizens on average better off.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
9 |
Strongly Agree |
8 |
Comment: The only hard part is using the revenue in a reasonable way.
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A tax on the carbon content of fuels would be a less expensive way to reduce carbon-dioxide emissions than would a collection of policies such as “corporate average fuel economy” requirements for automobiles.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
9 |
Strongly Agree |
8 |
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Question A: All else equal, making drugs illegal raises street prices for those drugs because suppliers require extra compensation for the risk of incarceration and other punishments.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
8 |
Agree |
8 |
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Question B: The Netherlands restrictions on “soft drugs” combined with a moderate tax aimed at deterring their consumption would have lower social costs than continuing to prohibit use of those drugs as in the US. (Click here for a summary of the Netherlands restrictions.)
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
7 |
Agree |
5 |
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Question A:Credible assumptions for inflation, GDP growth and primary budget deficits in Italy imply that either the Debt-to-GDP ratio in Italy would increase sharply if Italian interest rates on 10-year government debt remained at the November 30 level of around 7 percent or Italy would lose access to the bond market.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
9 |
Agree |
6 |
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Question B:Absent outside help to deal with runs, such as a pledge of fiscal support from Germany or an unlimited commitment by the ECB to buy bonds, there is no spending-and-tax plan Italy can announce that would be credible enough to hold its interest rates low enough to stabilize its Debt-to-GDP ratio.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Disagree |
9 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: Modest spending cuts, together with substantial regulatory reform, would probably solve the problem.
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There are no consequential distortions created by the tax preference that favors obtaining health insurance through employers.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Disagree |
8 |
Strongly Disagree |
8 |
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Federal mandates that government purchases should be “buy American” unless there are exceptional circumstances, such as in the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, have a significant positive impact on U.S. manufacturing employment.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Disagree |
3 |
Disagree |
5 |
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Question A: Eliminating tax deductions for non-investment personal interest expenses (e.g., on mortgages), with reductions in personal tax rates that are both budget neutral and keep the burden of taxes by income group the same, would lead to more efficient financing decisions by individuals.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
5 |
Agree |
7 |
Comment: Unclear what is meant by the "efficiency" of financing decisions by individuals.
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Question B: Reducing the deductibility of interest expenses for non-financial businesses to equalize the overall tax cost of debt and equity financing, while using the extra revenue to reduce personal and corporate tax rates in a budget neutral fashion that also keeps the burden of taxes the same, would lead to more efficient financing decisions by firms.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
5 |
Agree |
7 |
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Question A: Unless they have inside information, very few investors, if any, can consistently make accurate predictions about whether the price of an individual stock will rise or fall on a given day.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
9 |
Strongly Agree |
8 |
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Question B: Plausible expectations of future dividends, discounted using a plausible risk-adjusted interest rate, explain well the level of stock prices for recently listed internet businesses in 1999.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Disagree |
6 |
Disagree |
7 |
Comment: Asset prices are extremely volatile, and "explaining" this fact as variations in the price of risk seems close to tautological.
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The Chinese government pursues policies that keep the renminbi's exchange rate vis à vis the dollar lower than it would be if the currency floated without those policies.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
No Opinion |
Agree |
6 |
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Public school students would receive a higher quality education if they all had the option of taking the government money (local, state, federal) currently being spent on their own education and turning that money into vouchers that they could use towards covering the costs of any private school or public school of their choice (e.g. charter schools).
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
9 |
Uncertain |
6 |
Comment: It's the only way to break the unions. Why do that? Fran Tarkenton said it all in his recent WSJ op ed piece.
-see background information here |
Question A: All else equal, permanently raising the federal marginal tax rate on ordinary income by 1 percentage point for those in the top (i.e., currently 35%) tax bracket would increase federal tax revenue over the next 10 years.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
9 |
Agree |
8 |
Comment: There is a Laffer Curve, but 35% is to the left of the peak.
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Question B:The cumulative budget shortfalls in the US over the next 10 years can be reduced by half (or more) purely by increasing the federal marginal tax rate on ordinary income for those in the top tax bracket.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Disagree |
8 |
Disagree |
7 |
Comment: The top bracket is a very small group. Maybe with the top 10% of the income distribution. But how are we defining "budget shortfalls"?
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All else equal, the Fed's new plan to increase the maturity of its Treasury holdings will boost expected real GDP growth for calendar year 2012 by at least one percentage point.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
1 |
Disagree |
4 |
Comment: There is little or no evidence one way or the other---little basis for *anyone* to feel confident.
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