Martin Hellwig image

Martin Hellwig

10 Votes

Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods

  • Bonn, Germany

About

  • Director at the Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods
  • President of the European Economic Association (1992)
  • Fellow of the Econometric Society (since 1981)
  • Member of the Scientific Advisory Council, German Federal Ministry of Economic Affairs (1995 – present)

Voting History

Question A:

Holding other policies fixed, the average European would be better off if every European country taxed corporate profits at a rate of 20% (based as closely as possible on a common definition of profits).

Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
10
Disagree
6
Comment: The "average European" does not exist. The counterpart of the tax cut in the budget is undefined. Any affirmative statement is unfounded.
Question B: If other policies were held fixed and every European country taxed corporate profits at a common rate of 20%, then reducing that common rate substantially below 20% would make the average European better off.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
10
Strongly Disagree
6
Comment: The "average European" does not exist. The counterpart of the tax cut in the budget is undefined. Any affirmative statement is unfounded.
Europe

Board Quotas for Women

Question A: All else equal, if corporations throughout Europe set quotas for a minimum number of women board members, the shareholder value of European companies would increase.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Uncertain
5
Question B: Taking into account the likely effects on investments in human capital by men and women, setting quotas throughout Europe for a minimum number of women board members would generate substantial net benefits for Europeans.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Uncertain
5
Europe

Energy Sources

Question A: Subsidizing renewable energy sources is better than taxing fossil fuels, assuming the subsidy or tax would be set at levels that would reduce carbon emissions by an equivalent amount.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Disagree
6
Comment: Subsidizing renewable energy may induce innovation through learning by doing. Taxing carbon may just induce cross-border substitution.
Question B: Germany’s solar-energy subsidies to date have produced net social benefits for Germany.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
10
Disagree
5
Comment: We all feel so good about them!!! :-) A serious answer to the question is hardly possible.
Question C: Solar-energy subsidies to date in Germany and other countries have produced net social benefits for the world.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
8
Uncertain
5
Comment: China is exporting lots of solar panels!
Europe

Behavioral Economics

Insights from psychology about individual behavior – examples of which include limited rationality, low self-control, or a taste for fairness – predict several important types of observed market outcomes that fully-rational economic models do not.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
No Opinion
Agree
8
Comment: Is "fully rational" about optimization or about expectations? Is "market outcomes" about anything in the real world or about markets?
Europe

Refugees in Germany

The influx of refugees into Germany beginning in the summer of 2015 will generate net economic benefits for German citizens over the succeeding decade.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
No Opinion
Uncertain
6
Comment: The outcome is highly contingent on the extent of labor market opening and on integration. No general assessment can be seriously made.
Question A: Holding labor market institutions and job training fixed, rising use of robots and artificial intelligence is likely to increase substantially the number of workers in advanced countries who are unemployed for long periods.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
No Opinion
Uncertain
6
Comment: the answer depends a lot on what alternative employment (at possibly lower wages) is available.
Question B: Rising use of robots and artificial intelligence in advanced countries is likely to create benefits large enough that they could be used to compensate those workers who are substantially negatively affected for their lost wages.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
6
Agree
6
Comment: The answer depends on how the various frictions in the labour market play out. No general answer is available.
Europe

Ride Sharing

Question A: Consumers will be better off, on balance, if European cities treat firms that provide ride-sharing platforms (such as Uber) as substantively different from taxi firms, and thus not necessarily warranting the same regulation.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
No Opinion
Uncertain
6
Comment: The meaning of "same" and "different" is unclear. There are similarities as well as differences. How releveant are they?
Question B: Assuming that taxi and ride-sharing companies were treated as substantively similar — including requirements that they operate on an equal footing regarding safety, insurance and taxation — letting ride-sharing services compete without restrictions on prices or routes would raise consumer welfare.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
7
Agree
7
Comment: There is a question whether such entry would not simply induce traditional suppliers to exit.
Question C: Regardless of how ride-sharing services are treated, existing regulations for traditional taxi firms in many European cities harm consumers by limiting competition.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
10
Agree
7
Comment: Key issues are price regulation and entry regulation. We need significant empirical information to assess their effects on consumers.
Question A: Revising France’s labor market policies — by reducing employment protection, decentralizing labor negotiations to the firm level, and making training programs more accessible and responsive to labor demands — would, all else equal, increase productivity in France’s economy.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Agree
7
Question B: Reducing employment protection would reduce the equilibrium unemployment rate in France.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Agree
7
Europe

ECB Asset Purchases

Question A: The ECB's asset purchases over the past two years have reduced the threat of deflation in the euro area as a whole.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Agree
7
Comment: The associated compression of bank profitability had a significant countervailing effect.
Question B: If the economic outlook in the euro area becomes less favorable, then increasing the ECB's asset purchase program (in size or duration) would substantially increase the euro area's economic growth over the following five years.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
4
Uncertain
6
Comment: If slow growth is due to high leverage of nonfinancial and financial firms, substantial new growth requires that to be dealt with first.
Europe

Diversified Investing

In general, absent any inside information, an equity investor can expect to do better by holding a well-diversified, low-fee, passive index fund than by holding a few stocks.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
10
Strongly Agree
9
Comment: The empirical evidence is overwhelming.
Europe

Aging

Question A: Without changes in policy, a rising share of people who are over age 65 will exert a substantial downward influence on per capita real GDP in western European countries.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
10
Agree
7
Comment: As the statement is formulated, it is a trusm. The real issue is whether people's standards of living will fall below what they are used to.
Question B: In European countries where the share of those over 65 is rising, there are net social benefits to adjusting retirement ages for state-financed (including pay-as-you-go) pension systems upwards, so that revised retirement ages better reflect longer life expectancies.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
8
Agree
8
Comment: People not only live longer but also remain vigorous and healthy for longer. Reduce distirbutional conflict between generations.
Europe

City of London

Question A: All else equal, there are substantial advantages to having much of Europe’s human capital and infrastructure for international financial activity clustered in a single city, as they are at present in London.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
10
Agree
7
Comment: Advantages from economies of scale and scope may well be matched by disadvantages from herding and systemic risk.
Question B: All else equal, Britain’s rules on hiring, firing and working hours are significantly more conducive to financial activity than those in other large European countries.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Agree
7
Comment: If "financial activity" refers to trading, the statement is probably true, if to funding of the real economy, the matter is not so clear.
Europe

Italy’s Banks

Question A: Setting the EU rules aside, and assuming it would take 2.5% of Italy’s GDP to recapitalize its banks, the Italian government would improve financial stability in Europe if it injected this amount of public funds into its banks.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Agree
7
Question B: If Italy were to inject public funds into its banks without imposing losses on at least some claimants, an important cost would be the effect on future incentives (economic or political) in Europe.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Agree
8
Europe

Brexit

Question A: Because of the Brexit vote's outcome, the UK's real per-capita income level is likely to be lower a decade from now than it would have been otherwise.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Agree
8
Question B: Because of the Brexit vote's outcome, the rest of the EU's real per-capita income level is likely to be lower a decade from now than it would have been otherwise.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Agree
7
Europe

Congestion Pricing

In general, using more congestion charges in crowded transportation networks — such as higher tolls during peak travel times in cities, and peak fees for airplane takeoff and landing slots — and using the proceeds to lower other taxes would make citizens on average better off.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Strongly Agree
8
On the whole, the shift from state to private ownership of many industrial assets in central and eastern European countries after communism has increased productivity in those countries.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Strongly Agree
8
Europe

Trade Within Europe

Question A: Freer movement of goods and services across borders within Europe has made the average western European citizen better off since the 1980s.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Strongly Agree
8
Question B: Freer movement of goods and services across borders within Europe has made many low-skilled western European citizens worse off since the 1980s.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Disagree
7
Europe

Local Tax Incentives

Question A: Giving tax incentives to specific firms to locate operations in a country typically generates domestic benefits that outweigh the costs to the country providing the incentives.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Uncertain
6
Question B: Europe as a whole benefits when European cities or countries compete with each other by giving tax incentives to firms to locate operations in their jurisdictions.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Disagree
7
Europe

Migration Within Europe

Question A: Freer movement of people to live and work across borders within Europe has made the average western European citizen better off since the 1980s.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Agree
8
Question B: Freer movement of people to live and work across borders within Europe has made many low-skilled western European citizens worse off since the 1980s.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Disagree
6