About
- Thomas DeWitt Cuyler Professor of Economics
- Recipient of the IZA Prize in Labor Economics (2018)
- Consultant, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago (1996-2002; 2016-2017)
- Consultant, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland (2017)
- Research Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research
Voting History
Question A: Matching US import tariffs to the tariffs, value-added taxes and non-tariff barriers imposed on US goods by other countries would substantially reduce the US trade deficit.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
2 |
Disagree |
5 |
|
Question B: The threat of retaliation against the imposition of higher tariffs on a country’s exports substantially lowers the probability of a trade war.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
2 |
Uncertain |
5 |
|
Question C: In the event that the threat of retaliation does not deter the imposition of tariffs, the economies of countries subject to higher tariffs on their exports would be measurably better off by responding with targeted tariffs on imports from the first mover.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
3 |
Uncertain |
5 |
|
Question A: The president has signed an executive order that pauses enforcement of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act.
Permanently ending US enforcement of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act will substantially increase global levels of bribery and corruption.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
3 |
Agree |
5 |
|
Question B: Permanently ending US enforcement of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act will substantially improve US businesses' long-term profits and long-term competitiveness.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
3 |
Disagree |
5 |
|
Question A: California's insurance industry regulator issued statements shortly before and shortly after the recent wildfires started (on December 30, 2024, and January 9, 2025):
https://www.insurance.ca.gov/0400-news/0100-press-releases/2024/release065-2024.cfm
https://www.insurance.ca.gov/0400-news/0100-press-releases/2025/release005-2025.cfm
In the face of growing wildfire risks, price caps on insurance premiums have substantially reduced the viability of private property insurance markets in California.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
4 |
Agree |
6 |
|
Question B: A mandatory one-year moratorium on insurance non-renewals and cancellations would lead to a substantial longer-term reduction in the supply of private home insurance products and the number of households that are insured against catastrophic risk in areas of California affected by recent wildfires.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
3 |
Uncertain |
5 |
|
Question A: All else equal, making permanent the 2017 tax cuts that were set to expire at the end of 2025 would substantially increase federal deficits and the federal debt over the coming decade.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
7 |
Agree |
7 |
|
Question B: All else equal, making permanent the 2017 tax cuts that were set to expire at the end of 2025 would measurably increase the rate of US economic growth over the coming decade.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Disagree |
3 |
Disagree |
5 |
|
Question C: In the US, given Congressional budget scoring rules, temporary tax cuts generate sufficient pressure for extension as to be effectively permanent.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
2 |
Uncertain |
5 |
|
Question A: The proposed US tariffs on Chinese EVs would lead to measurably higher employment in the US automotive industry over the next five years.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
5 |
Uncertain |
5 |
|
Question B: The proposed US tariffs on Chinese EVs would lead to measurably higher prices of EVs in the US.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
5 |
Agree |
7 |
|
Question C: The proposed US tariffs on Chinese EVs would measurably slow the adoption of green technology by consumers.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
5 |
Agree |
5 |
|
Reclassifying marijuana as a Schedule III drug would lead to measurably higher social welfare.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
2 |
Agree |
5 |
|
Universities that abandon temporary pandemic test-optional policies and return to requiring standardized test scores for admissions will create measurably enhanced opportunities for potentially high-achieving students from low-income backgrounds.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
6 |
Agree |
6 |
Comment: Test scores contain valuable information about achievement and potential, especially for students from less advantaged backgrounds.
-see background information here |
Question A: An $8 cap on late fees for credit cards, as proposed by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, would lead to a substantial reduction in overall costs for consumers.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
2 |
Uncertain |
5 |
|
Question B: Requiring that all credit card fees and interest rates be transparent, prominently displayed, and easily searchable online would lead to a substantial reduction in overall costs for consumers.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
2 |
Uncertain |
5 |
|
Question C: Consumers would be measurably better off if efforts to reduce the impact of so-called ‘junk fees’ across the economy concentrated on making fees more transparent than on capping specific types of fees.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Disagree |
3 |
Uncertain |
5 |
|
Question A: Prohibiting firms from imposing employment contract provisions that prevent workers from moving to a competitor or starting a competing business would lead to a substantial increase in wages in the affected industries.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
6 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Question B: A ban on non-compete clauses would lead to a measurable increase in innovation.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
4 |
Uncertain |
4 |
Comment: Noncompetes help firms protect intellectual property, but they reduce the ability of new competitors to assemble a workforce.
|
Question C: A ban on non-compete clauses would lead to a measurable reduction in firms’ investment in staff training.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
3 |
Uncertain |
5 |
|
Question A: Given the centrality of semiconductors to the manufacturing of many products, securing reliable supplies should be a key strategic objective of national policy.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
8 |
Agree |
5 |
|
Question B: Restrictions on exports of semiconductors and related high-tech equipment to China will substantially improve US technological leadership.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
3 |
Uncertain |
4 |
|
Question A: The administration’s loan relief plan will not have a substantial impact on inflation in either direction.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
4 |
Agree |
5 |
Comment: I expect a small positive impact on inflation.
|
Question B: A longer-term impact of the administration’s loan relief plan is likely to be substantially higher tuition fees at some universities.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
4 |
Uncertain |
4 |
|
Question C: A longer-term impact of the administration’s loan relief plan is likely to be measurably higher student debt burdens in anticipation of future forgiveness.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
4 |
Uncertain |
4 |
|
Question A: The current $7,500 tax credit for purchasing electric vehicles is regressive.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Did Not Answer | Agree |
6 |
|
|
Question B: To encourage greater take-up of electric vehicles, public expenditure on infrastructure to support them (such as charging stations) is likely to be more cost-effective than providing equivalent amounts as tax credits/purchase rebates for buyers.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Did Not Answer | Agree |
5 |
|
|
Question A: Laws restricting access to abortion are likely to have a negative impact on women's educational attainment, labor market participation, and earnings, particularly those in households of lower socio-economic status.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
6 |
Agree |
6 |
Question B: States that ban abortion are likely to suffer significant economic losses.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
4 |
Uncertain |
4 |
Comment: Negative effects through reduction in education & labor supply and through migration decisions.
Size uncertain.
|
Question A: Increased unionization of the American workforce would give a noticeable boost to the earnings of current workers who become eligible to be members.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
8 |
Agree |
5 |
Comment: The size of the increase depends on the sector, but a larger literature finds that unions boost wages of members.
|
Question B: Increased unionization of the American workforce would give a noticeable boost to wages for the median household.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
4 |
Uncertain |
5 |
|
Question C: Increased unionization of the American workforce would have a net positive effect on employment.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Disagree |
5 |
Disagree |
5 |
|
Question A: It would serve the US economy well to make it unlawful for companies with revenues over $1 billion to offer goods or services for sale at an “unconscionably excessive price” during an exceptional market shock.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Disagree |
7 |
Disagree |
6 |
|
Question B: It would serve the US economy well if companies making quarterly SEC filings were obliged to include a tabulation of all price changes of goods or services sold, together with the associated cost changes.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Disagree |
8 |
Disagree |
6 |
|
Stablecoins that are not fully backed by either central bank reserves or government securities with minimal price volatility are inherently vulnerable to runs.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
4 |
Agree |
6 |
|
Question A: A windfall tax on the profits of large oil companies – with the revenue rebated to households – would provide an efficient means to protect the average US household from rising energy costs.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Disagree |
5 |
Uncertain |
5 |
|
Question B: Temporary suspension of state and federal gas taxes would lead to a meaningful and immediate reduction in consumer prices at the pump.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
8 |
Agree |
5 |
Comment: It will lower prices, but would be bad policy given underfunding of transportation infrastructure and environmental concerns.
|
Question A: Efforts to achieve the goal of reaching net-zero emissions of greenhouse gases by 2050 will be a major drag on global economic growth.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Did Not Answer | Uncertain |
5 |
|
|
Question B: Voluntary national targets are unlikely to be an effective mechanism for achieving sharp reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Did Not Answer | Agree |
6 |
|
|
Question C: Agreement on a significant global price floor for all carbon emissions would be an effective step towards achieving sharp reductions in emissions.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Did Not Answer | Agree |
6 |
|
|
Mandating staff vaccinations and/or regular testing at big employers would promote a faster and stronger economic recovery.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
8 |
Strongly Agree |
7 |
|
Question A: In an economy open to capital flows, monetary policy can only be effective with a floating exchange rate.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
5 |
Uncertain |
5 |
|
Question B: For emerging and developing economies open to the world capital market, a flexible exchange rate confers little advantage over a pegged exchange rate in terms of economic stability.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
2 |
Disagree |
4 |
|
Question C: The key feature making the US a more natural optimum currency area than the euro area is higher labor mobility.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
5 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: The fact that the US has a strong central government is at least as important as labor mobility.
|
Sound policy would involve increasing significantly the currently near-zero price of emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
10 |
Strongly Agree |
9 |
|
Question A: Until mass vaccination is achieved, any additional government spending going directly to households should focus on keeping low-income individuals and families safe and healthy rather than on boosting current economic activity.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
5 |
Agree |
6 |
Comment: Wording is tricky. Spending should focus both on health, which will help the economy, and on the economy, prioritizing those in need.
|
Question B: If the goal is to boost current economic activity, targeting checks at households making less than $75,000 per year would be more cost-effective than providing checks to higher income households as well.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
8 |
Agree |
7 |
|
Question A: The UK economy is likely to be at least several percentage points smaller in 2030 than it would have been if the country had remained in the European Union.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
6 |
Agree |
5 |
Question B: The aggregate economy of the 27 countries still in the EU is likely to be at least several percentage points smaller in 2030 than if the UK had not left.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Disagree |
4 |
Uncertain |
4 |
Comment: The UK accounted for just 15.2% of EU output in 2017, so the negative effect on remaining EU states will be less than the effect on the UK.
|
Requiring Facebook to divest WhatsApp and Instagram is likely to make society better off.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
3 |
Agree |
5 |
|
Question A: Google's dominance of the market for internet search arose mainly from a combination of economies of scale and a quality algorithm.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
5 |
Agree |
5 |
|
Question B: In light of Google’s dominance, its current operating practices could have a substantial negative effect on social welfare in the long run.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
3 |
Uncertain |
5 |
|
Question C: The nature of the market dominance of technology giants in the digital economy warrants either the imposition of some kind of regulation or a fundamental change in antitrust policy.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
3 |
Uncertain |
5 |
|
Question A: The US economy would be substantially stronger today if the state and local ‘stay-at-home’ orders had been more uniform and lasted longer in the first half of the year.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
3 |
Uncertain |
5 |
|
Question B: The economy will receive a substantial boost as soon as K-12 schools can be safely opened in person nationwide.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
3 |
Agree |
6 |
|
Question A: Political conflict plays a key role in shaping economic decisions, policies and outcomes.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
6 |
Strongly Agree |
7 |
|
Question B: The US has a smaller social welfare system than other rich countries in part because it is more heterogeneous by race and ethnicity.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
5 |
Agree |
6 |
|
Question A: Clearing the market for surgical face masks using prices is detrimental to the public good.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
4 |
Agree |
6 |
|
Question B: Laws to prevent high prices for essential goods in short supply in a crisis would raise social welfare.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
3 |
Uncertain |
6 |
Comment: It depends on the characteristics of the good.
|
Question C: Governments should buy essential medical supplies at what would have been the market price and redistribute according to need rather than ability to pay.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
3 |
Agree |
5 |
|
Question A: With the economy in lockdown, low-income workers who are above the poverty line will suffer a relatively bigger hit to their incomes than those further up the distribution (even accounting for all government support schemes).
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
5 |
Agree |
6 |
|
Question B: With the economy in lockdown, existing gaps in access to quality education between high- and low-income households will be exacerbated.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
7 |
Agree |
7 |
|
Question C: The mortality impact of Covid-19 is likely to fall disproportionately on disadvantaged socio-economic groups.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
7 |
Strongly Agree |
7 |
|
Question A: Replacing the current US health insurance system (including employer-based health insurance, ACA exchange policies, and Medicaid) with universal ‘Medicare for All’ (mandatory enrollment in a modified version of the existing traditional Medicare program with drug coverage and no cost-sharing of any form, and current Medicare reimbursement rates) funded by federal taxes would lead to lower aggregate medical debt among patients.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
8 |
Agree |
5 |
|
Question B: Replacing the current US health insurance system as outlined in a) would lead to lower aggregate innovation in the pharmaceutical industry.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
6 |
Uncertain |
5 |
|
Question C: Replacing the current US health insurance system as outlined in a) would improve health outcomes for the majority of the population.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
5 |
Uncertain |
5 |
|
Question A: Having companies run to maximize shareholder value creates significant negative externalities for workers and communities.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
4 |
Uncertain |
6 |
|
Question B: Appropriately managed corporations could create significantly greater value than they currently do for a range of stakeholders – including workers, suppliers, customers and community members – with negligible impacts on shareholder value.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
2 |
Uncertain |
5 |
|
Question C: Effective mechanisms for boards of directors to ensure that CEOs act in ways that balance the interests of all stakeholders would be straightforward to introduce.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Disagree |
3 |
Disagree |
6 |
|
Question A: The first required class for undergraduate economics majors at my university accurately reflects the way that economists think about a range of economics problems.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
9 |
Agree |
7 |
|
Question B: The first required class for undergraduate economics majors at my university addresses the most pressing economic issues in the US.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
7 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: The first course is microeconomics. A number of critical issues are covered in the second course---macroeconomics.
|
Selecting candidates for membership of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) based primarily on their political views would lead to worse monetary policy outcomes than has been the case over the last 15 years.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
8 |
Strongly Agree |
8 |
|
Question A: Forcing Amazon to divest Whole Foods now would be in the public interest.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
2 |
Disagree |
5 |
|
Question B: Acquisitions by large tech platforms where there are risks of anti-competitive effects like those posed by Amazon’s acquisition of Whole Foods should not be permitted.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
2 |
Uncertain |
5 |
|
Question C: Large tech platforms, such as Amazon Marketplace and Google Search, should be designated as ‘platform utilities' and broken apart from any participant on that platform.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
2 |
Disagree |
5 |
|
Question A: Countries that borrow in their own currency should not worry about government deficits because they can always create money to finance their debt.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Disagree |
7 |
Strongly Disagree |
8 |
|
Question B: Countries that borrow in their own currency can finance as much real government spending as they want by creating money.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Disagree |
8 |
Strongly Disagree |
8 |
|
Raising the top federal marginal tax on earned personal income to 70% (and holding the rest of the current tax code, including the top bracket definition, fixed) would raise substantially more revenue (federal and state, combined) without lowering economic activity.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Disagree |
4 |
Disagree |
6 |
Comment: Some increase in revenue but substantial tax avoidance. Modest drop in output due to lab. supply response and tax avoidance.
|
Because global supply chains are more important now, import tariffs are likely substantially more costly than they would have been 25 years ago.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
4 |
Agree |
7 |
|
The European Union often uses its antitrust powers to protect EU-based firms from international competition, rather than to promote greater competition in European markets.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
No Opinion |
Disagree |
4 |
|
|
Restricting eligibility for senior government economic-policy posts by requiring a graduate degree in economics would reduce the chances for good public policy outcomes.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
8 |
Disagree |
6 |
|
Question A: Without changes in policy, a rising share of people who are over age 65 will exert a substantial downward influence on per capita real GDP in western European countries.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
7 |
Agree |
6 |
|
Question B: In European countries where the share of those over 65 is rising, there are net social benefits to adjusting retirement ages for state-financed (including pay-as-you-go) pension systems upwards, so that revised retirement ages better reflect longer life expectancies.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
7 |
Agree |
7 |
Comment: Scheduled increases in retirement age are already in place in some countries. Bigger increases should differentiate by health status.
|
Question A: The concept of “maximum sustainable employment” is well defined enough to be used beneficially in economic policymaking.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
5 |
Uncertain |
6 |
|
Question B: Right now the US economy is operating below maximum sustainable employment.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
5 |
Uncertain |
5 |
|
Question A: If the US enacts a tax bill similar to those currently moving through the House and Senate — and assuming no other changes in tax or spending policy — US GDP will be substantially higher a decade from now than under the status quo.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Did Not Answer | Disagree |
6 |
|
|
Question B: If the US enacts a tax bill similar to those currently moving through the House and Senate — and assuming no other changes in tax or spending policy — the US debt-to-GDP ratio will be substantially higher a decade from now than under the status quo.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Did Not Answer | Agree |
7 |
|
|
Insights from psychology about individual behavior – examples of which include limited rationality, low self-control, or a taste for fairness – predict several important types of observed market outcomes that fully-rational economic models do not.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
8 |
Strongly Agree |
8 |
|
The influx of refugees into Germany beginning in the summer of 2015 will generate net economic benefits for German citizens over the succeeding decade.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
6 |
Uncertain |
5 |
|
Because labor markets across different sectors are connected, rising productivity in manufacturing leads the cost of labor-intensive services — such as education and health care — to rise.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
8 |
Agree |
8 |
|
Question A: Since 1980, whenever substantial growth effects have been required to make a tax reform plan revenue neutral, the actual outcome has invariably been a fall in tax revenue as a share of GDP.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
7 |
Agree |
7 |
Comment: I generally agree, but the demand stimulus from a tax cut in a recession may reduce net revenue loss.
|
Question B: The tax reform plan proposed by President Trump this week would likely pay for itself through higher economic growth.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Disagree |
7 |
Strongly Disagree |
8 |
|
Question A: US share prices have risen since Donald Trump’s election victory at least partly because the policies he seems poised to implement are likely to increase US after-tax corporate profits.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
2 |
Agree |
6 |
|
Question B: US share prices have risen since Donald Trump’s election victory at least partly because the policies he seems poised to implement are likely to increase US real GDP growth.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
2 |
Disagree |
5 |
|
The Council of Economic Advisors is likely to give the US president better policy advice if the Chair and Members of the CEA have published peer-reviewed economics research.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
8 |
Agree |
7 |
|
Long run fiscal sustainability in the US will require some combination of cuts in currently promised Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security benefits and/or tax increases that include higher taxes on households with incomes below $250,000.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
7 |
Agree |
6 |
Comment: Raising efficiency of US healthcare to level of other developed countries would dramatically reduce need for tax increases and benefit cuts
|
Question A: Allowing US-based employers to hire many more immigrants with advanced degrees in science or engineering would lower (at least temporarily) the premium earned by current American workers with similar degrees.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
4 |
Agree |
6 |
|
Question B: Allowing US-based employers to hire many more immigrants with advanced degrees in science or engineering would raise per capita income in the US over time.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
8 |
Agree |
7 |
|
The ratio of the 90th to the 10th percentile of the US income distribution has been unaffected by the Federal Reserve's unconventional monetary policies since the financial crisis.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
3 |
Uncertain |
4 |
|
The “Cadillac tax” on expensive employer-provided health insurance plans will reduce costly distortions in US health care if it is allowed to take effect as scheduled in 2018.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
8 |
Agree |
7 |
|
Large movements in monthly oil prices, either up or down, are driven primarily by speculators, as opposed to changes in the current (and planned) supply or demand for oil.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Disagree |
9 |
Disagree |
7 |
|
Question A:Expanding health insurance to more people through the ACA’s public subsidies and Medicaid expansion will reduce total healthcare spending in the economy.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Disagree |
6 |
Disagree |
6 |
|
Question B: Expanding health insurance to more people through the ACA’s public subsidies and Medicaid expansion will generate gains in the health and well-being of the newly insured that exceed the costs.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
6 |
Agree |
6 |
|
Behavior in many complex and seemingly intractable strategic settings can be understood more clearly by working out what each party in the game will choose to do if they realize that the other parties will be solving the same problem. This insight has helped us understand behavior as diverse as military conflicts, price setting by competing firms and penalty kicking in soccer.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
8 |
Strongly Agree |
8 |
|
Question A: Giving tax incentives to specific firms to locate operations in a city or state typically generates local benefits that outweigh the costs to the city and/or state providing the incentives.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
4 |
Uncertain |
5 |
|
Question B: The US as a whole benefits when cities or states compete with each other by giving tax incentives to firms to locate operations in their jurisdictions.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Disagree |
5 |
Disagree |
5 |
|
A typical country can increase its citizens’ welfare by enacting policies that would increase its trade surplus (or decrease its trade deficit).
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
3 |
Disagree |
6 |
|
Question A: Lowering the effective marginal tax rate on US corporations’ repatriated profits for a year would boost US capital investment significantly.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
No Opinion |
Disagree |
5 |
|
|
Question B: Permanently lowering the effective marginal tax rate on US corporations’ repatriated profits, such as by moving to a territorial-based tax system, would boost US capital investment significantly.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
No Opinion |
Uncertain |
5 |
|
|
Question A: Amazon has monopsony power in the market for books that is significantly reducing the supply of books.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
4 |
Disagree |
5 |
Comment: Amazon has some monopsony power but its platform is probably making author access easier.
|
Question B:Amazon has sufficient monopsony power that regulatory intervention is likely to make consumers of books better off, taking into account implementation costs and the effect of intervention on incentives.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Disagree |
4 |
Disagree |
5 |
Comment: Intervention is costly and premature. So far, book consumers have probably benefited.
|
Question A: Because the US has underspent on new projects, maintenance, or both, the federal government has an opportunity to increase average incomes by spending more on roads, railways, bridges and airports. (The experts panel previously voted on this question on May 23, 2013. Those earlier results can be found here.)
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
8 |
Agree |
6 |
|
Question B: Past experience of public spending and political economy suggests that if the government spent more on roads, railways, bridges and airports, many of the projects would have low or negative returns. (The experts panel previously voted on this question on May 23, 2013. Those earlier results can be found here.)
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
8 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: Both public and private sector investments are risky. Some infrastructure projects will fail even when most have high social returns.
|
Question A: By discounting pension liabilities at high interest rates under government accounting standards, many U.S. state and local governments understate their pension liabilities and the costs of providing pensions to public-sector workers. (The experts panel previously voted on this question on October 1, 2012. Those earlier results can be found here.)
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
8 |
Agree |
7 |
|
Question B: During the next two decades some U.S. states, unless they substantially increase taxes, cut spending, and/or change public-sector pensions, will require a combination of severe austerity budgets, a federal bailout, and/or default. (The experts panel previously voted on this question on October 1, 2012. Those earlier results can be found here.)
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
7 |
Agree |
6 |
|
New technology for fracking natural gas, by lowering energy costs in the United States, will make US industrial firms more cost competitive and thus significantly stimulate the growth of US merchandise exports. (The experts panel previously voted on this question on May 23, 2012. Those earlier results can be found here.)
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
5 |
Uncertain |
5 |
|
There is a social value to having institutions that issue liquid liabilities that are backed by illiquid assets.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
10 |
Agree |
8 |
|
Question A: Employers that discriminate in hiring will be at a competitive disadvantage, if their customers do not care about their mix of employees, compared with firms that do not discriminate.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
9 |
Agree |
6 |
Comment: Discriminating firms pay higher wages and draw from a smaller labor pool, raising labor costs. See Becker, The Economics of Discrimination
|
Question B: Rising market wages are an important reason — over and above any changes in medical technology, social norms or preferences — why family sizes have fallen over the past century in rich countries.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
10 |
Agree |
6 |
|
A market that allows payment for human kidneys should be established on a trial basis to help extend the lives of patients with kidney disease.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Did Not Answer | Uncertain |
7 |
|
|
Question A: The average US citizen would be better off if a larger number of low-skilled foreign workers were legally allowed to enter the US each year.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Disagree |
7 |
Agree |
5 |
Comment: Real income of avg the American would rise, but social strains and inequality would also increase.
|
Question B: Unless they were compensated by others, many low-skilled American workers would be substantially worse off if a larger number of low-skilled foreign workers were legally allowed to enter the US each year.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Disagree |
7 |
Agree |
6 |
Comment: I agree that the effect would be negative, but believe that it would be modest, not substantial.
|
In general, absent any inside information, an equity investor can expect to do better by choosing a well-diversified, low-cost index fund than by picking a few stocks.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
9 |
Strongly Agree |
9 |
|
Sustained tax and spending policies that boost consumption in ways that reduce the saving rate are likely to lower long-run living standards.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
8 |
Agree |
7 |
|
Slavery in the United States was eradicated because of social and political events, not because it was an unprofitable institution for slaveholders.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
2 |
Agree |
7 |
|
A bitcoin's value derives solely from the belief that others will want to use it for trade, which implies that its purchasing power is likely to fluctuate over time to a degree that will limit its usefulness.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
7 |
Agree |
6 |
|
Using government funds to guarantee preschool education for four-year olds would yield a much lower social return than the ones achieved by the most highly touted targeted preschool initiatives.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
4 |
Uncertain |
4 |
Comment: More public investment in pre-school educated is warranted, but good targetted programs cost less and crowd out less parental invest.
|
The Brookings Institution recently described a US carbon tax of $20 per ton, increasing at 4% per year, which would raise an estimated $150 billion per year in federal revenues over the next decade. Given the negative externalities created by carbon dioxide emissions, a federal carbon tax at this rate would involve fewer harmful net distortions to the US economy than a tax increase that generated the same revenue by raising marginal tax rates on labor income across the board.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
5 |
Agree |
7 |
Question A: Consider one of two proposals for restraining future Medicare spending, each by the same amount: The method that President Obama enacted in the Affordable Care Act — reducing Medicare-related payments to private insurers and altering the payment system for doctors and hospitals — imposes risks on future Medicare patients because over time the supply of doctors, hospitals and insurers willing to offer them health services may decline in response to restrained payments.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
8 |
Agree |
6 |
|
Question B: Consider the other of two proposals for restraining future Medicare spending, each by the same amount: The method that Governor Romney advocates — giving future seniors a fixed payment for premiums and letting private insurers compete with Medicare — imposes risks on future Medicare patients because competition may not be powerful to enough to offer future seniors the same quality of care that is currently promised without supplementing their premium support.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
8 |
Agree |
6 |
|
Question A: One drawback of taxing capital income at a lower rate than labor income is that it gives people incentives to relabel income that policymakers find hard to categorize as "capital" rather than labor".
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
5 |
Agree |
7 |
|
Question B: Despite relabeling concerns, taxing capital income at a permanently lower rate than labor income would result in higher average long-term prosperity, relative to an alternative that generated the same amount of tax revenue by permanently taxing capital and labor income at equal rates instead.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
4 |
Uncertain |
5 |
|
Question C: Although they do not always agree about the precise likely effects of different tax policies, another reason why economists often give disparate advice on tax policy is because they hold differing views about choices between raising average prosperity and redistributing income.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
5 |
Agree |
7 |
|
Question A: By discounting pension liabilities at high interest rates under government accounting standards, many U.S. state and local governments understate their pension liabilities and the costs of providing pensions to public-sector workers.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
8 |
Agree |
7 |
|
Question B: During the next two decades some U.S. states, unless they substantially increase taxes, cut spending, and/or change public-sector pensions, will require a combination of severe austerity budgets, a federal bailout, and/or default.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
8 |
Agree |
7 |
|
Question A: Loans to students attending for-profit colleges are especially risky because students attending them have had default rates that greatly exceed those for comparable students attending public and non-profit private institutions.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
8 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Question B: Rules that tie each college's eligibility for federal student loans to its students' graduation rates and post-schooling employment outcomes would better protect taxpayers from losses on student loans.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
7 |
Agree |
5 |
Comment: A tie to default rates would also help.
|
Question A: The way in which money market funds normally trade – at one dollar per share, even though the per-share value of the assets backing them varies over time – made them vulnerable to a run in 2008 before they received taxpayer guarantees.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
4 |
Agree |
8 |
|
Question B: Taxpayers would be better protected if each money market fund in the U.S. were instead required to trade at its floating net asset value.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
4 |
Uncertain |
7 |
|
Question C: In the absence of floating net asset values, taxpayers would be better protected if each money market fund in the U.S. were required to set aside capital to protect against losses while holding back a portion of shareholders' cash for a time when they seek to withdraw all of their money.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
3 |
Uncertain |
5 |
|
Subjecting online sales from out-of-state vendors to the same retail sales taxes imposed on in-state sales would raise more tax revenue in the states making this change while reducing the pro-online bias of current policy.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
2 |
Agree |
7 |
|
New technology for fracking natural gas, by lowering energy costs in the United States, will make US industrial firms more cost competitive and thus significantly stimulate the growth of US merchandise exports.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Did Not Answer | Disagree |
5 |
|
|
Cuba’s low per-capita income growth — 1.2 percent per year since 1960 —has more to do with Cuba’s own economic policies than with the U.S. embargo on trade and tourism.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
4 |
Agree |
6 |
|
Question A: If public school students had the option of taking the government money (local, state, federal) currently being spent on their own education and turning that money into vouchers that they could use towards covering the costs of any private school or public school of their choice (e.g. charter schools), most would be better off.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
8 |
Uncertain |
6 |
Comment: The evidence on whether private schools and public schools outperform public schools is mixed. Students could avoid the worst schools.
|
Question B: The main drawback to allowing all public school students to take the government money (local, state, federal) currently being spent on their own education and turning that money into vouchers that they could use towards covering the costs of any private school or public school of their choice (e.g. charter schools) would be that some students would not make an active choice and would be left with much worse peers and a weaker school.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Disagree |
1 |
Agree |
5 |
Comment: Evidence for charter schools and for private schools in the U.S.suggests that the cream skimming problem is manageable.
-see background information here |
Question A: The average size of the 19 financial firms that just completed the Federal Reserve stress tests (i.e. the CCAR) would be substantially smaller if they did not have implicit government support.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
1 |
Uncertain |
5 |
|
Question B: The 19 financial firms that just completed the Federal Reserve stress tests (i.e. the CCAR) are big primarily because of economies of scale and scope, rather than because of implicit government support.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
1 |
Uncertain |
5 |
|
Changes in U.S. gasoline prices over the past 10 years have predominantly been due to market factors rather than U.S. federal economic or energy policies.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
9 |
Agree |
8 |
|
Because the U.S. Treasury bailed out and backstopped banks (by injecting equity into them in late 2008, and later committing to provide public capital to any banks that failed the stress tests and could not raise private capital), the U.S. unemployment rate was lower at the end of 2010 than it would have been without these measures.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
8 |
Agree |
6 |
|
Loosening current licensing restrictions on the range of services that nurses, physician assistants, dental hygienists and pharmacists are permitted to perform would help patients on balance, because the additional safety risks would be small compared to the decreased costs in waiting time and fees.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
2 |
Agree |
6 |
|
Local ordinances that limit rent increases for some rental housing units, such as in New York and San Francisco, have had a positive impact over the past three decades on the amount and quality of broadly affordable rental housing in cities that have used them.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Did Not Answer | Disagree |
6 |
|
|
A tax on the carbon content of fuels would be a less expensive way to reduce carbon-dioxide emissions than would a collection of policies such as “corporate average fuel economy” requirements for automobiles.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
7 |
Strongly Agree |
8 |
|
There are no consequential distortions created by the tax preference that favors obtaining health insurance through employers.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Disagree |
5 |
Strongly Disagree |
8 |
|
All else equal, the Fed's new plan to increase the maturity of its Treasury holdings will boost expected real GDP growth for calendar year 2012 by at least one percentage point.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
1 |
Disagree |
4 |
|