On the basis of current climate policy commitments and potential technology and market responses, my current best estimate for global warming is that average global temperatures by 2100 will rise to no more than 2.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

Question A: A period of high inflation is substantially more electorally damaging to incumbent governments in advanced countries than a period of high unemployment.

Question B: Voters are more likely to punish incumbents for what they perceive as poor national economic performance than they are to reward incumbents for a good economy.

Question A: The institutions of society - such as constitutions, laws, judiciaries, and property rights - substantially shape economic decisions, policies, and outcomes.

Question B: On average and over the long term, democracies deliver substantially better economic growth than other forms of government.

Question C: Countries where democracy and the rule of law are weakened are likely to experience measurable damage to their economic performance.

Question A: Current enforcement of competition policy in Europe is not working to promote innovation and growth.

Question B: European Union bureaucracy and regulations are a substantial constraint on innovation in Europe.

Question C: The conduct of the dominant US tech companies in European markets (including lobbying and acquisition of start-ups and competitors) is a substantial constraint on innovation in Europe.

Question A: In pursuing social and environmental initiatives, the average public company generates more benefits than costs in terms of profits.

Question B: In pursuing social and environmental initiatives, public companies would benefit from a measurably lower cost of capital.

Question C: There are substantial social benefits when managers of public companies make choices that account for the impact of their decisions on customers, employees, and community members beyond the effects on shareholders.

Question A: US antitrust investigations of the dominant firms in artificial intelligence are warranted by the need to foster competition and innovation in the technologies.

Question B: Seeking to slow the pace of artificial intelligence use and implementation would be a more effective means of assessing potential harms from the technologies than market deployment and ex post assessment.

Question A: The proposed US tariffs on Chinese EVs would lead to measurably higher employment in the US automotive industry over the next five years.

Question B: The proposed US tariffs on Chinese EVs would measurably slow the adoption of green technology by consumers.

Question C: Unless the EU matches the proposed US tariffs on Chinese EVs, there would be measurably lower employment in Europe's automotive industry over the next five years.

Question A: Greater integration of national markets for financial services, energy and telecommunications would give a measurable boost to Europe’s GDP over the next ten years.

Question B: The potential benefits for GDP from loosening European merger rules to allow greater consolidation within the single market would outweigh the potential harm to consumers from weaker competition.

Question A:

Creation of a more unified capital market in Europe - with a common pool of capital, a single rule book and a strengthened European Securities and Markets Authority, comparable to the US Securities and Exchange Commission – would lead to a substantial shift in the balance of companies listing their shares in the EU vis-a-vis the US.

Question B: Creation of a more unified capital market in Europe - with a common pool of capital, a single rule book and a strengthened European Securities and Markets Authority, comparable to the US Securities and Exchange Commission – would substantially increase the availability of funding for start-ups and growing companies across the EU.

Question A: The European Union's AI Act was approved by the European Parliament in March 2024: https://artificialintelligenceact.eu/the-act/

The EU's legislation to regulate artificial intelligence is likely to put European technology firms at a substantial disadvantage to their competitors elsewhere in the world.

Question B: By providing a clear set of rules, the EU's legislation on artificial intelligence is likely to enhance research and innovation by firms building the new technology.

Question A: Europe’s economic growth performance over the last 25 years has been measurably better than it would have been in the absence of the single currency.

Question B: With euro area member states having given up their ability to carry out independent monetary policy, it is substantially more difficult for them to respond effectively to country-specific macroeconomic disturbances.

A legalized and carefully regulated market for cannabis would lead to measurably higher social welfare than a system of prohibition.

Question A: The economic and financial sanctions against Russia are substantially limiting its ability to wage war on Ukraine.

Question B: In the absence of continuing flows of Western economic aid, Ukraine's wartime economy will be substantially compromised.

Question A: A constitutional rule that limits the size of budget deficits that governments can run as a share of GDP is an effective way to impose discipline on a country’s public finances.

Question B: Germany’s debt brake is a substantial constraint on vital public investment in physical/digital infrastructure and the green transition.

Question A:

The fundamental cause of Argentina’s high inflation is unfunded fiscal commitments that are being financed by the central bank.

Question B: Even if Argentina could marshal the resources to make a full switch to using US dollars for domestic transactions, it would substantially increase the volatility of Argentine GDP.

Question A: It is best for society if the management of publicly traded corporations only considers the impact of their decisions on customers, employees, and community members to the extent that these effects feedback to affect shareholder wealth.

Question B: The typical chief executive officer of a publicly traded corporation is paid more than his or her marginal contribution to the firm's value.

Question A: By enabling women’s life choices about education, work and family, the contraceptive pill made a substantial contribution to closing gender gaps in the labor market for professionals.

Question B: Gender gaps in today’s labor market arise less from differences in educational and occupational choices than from the differential career impact of parenthood and social norms around men's and women’s roles in childrearing.

Question C: The gender gap in pay would be substantially reduced if firms had fewer incentives to offer disproportionate rewards to individuals who work long and/or inflexible hours.

Question A: The EU's taxonomy for sustainable activities - a classification system that defines criteria for economic activities that are aligned with a net zero trajectory by 2050 and the broader environmental goals other than climate - is an effective way to steer greener investment and the energy transition by firms and financial institutions.


Details on the taxonomy are here:
https://finance.ec.europa.eu/sustainable-finance/tools-and-standards/eu-taxonomy-sustainable-activities_en

Question B: Use of the EU taxonomy for sustainable activities is likely to stifle important innovations, including in green technology.

Question C: On balance, use of the taxonomy in EU directives and regulation is likely to be net beneficial to European citizens.

Question A: Fiscal rules on budget deficits and public debt levels are an essential part of a sound fiscal framework.

Question B: Since the inception of the Stability and Growth Pact, budget deficits in Europe have been measurably lower, on average, than would have been the case without common budget rules.

Question C: Since the inception of the Stability and Growth Pact, the path of GDP growth in Europe has been measurably more stable than would have been the case without common budget rules.

Question A: Non-bank financial intermediaries pose a substantial threat to financial stability.

Question B: Regulating the leverage and liquidity of non-bank financial intermediaries would substantially improve financial stability.

Question C: Given current regulations, non-bank financial intermediaries should not have access to central bank support.

Question A: A significant factor behind today’s inflation in Europe is dominant corporations in uncompetitive markets taking advantage of their market power to raise prices in order to increase their profit margins.

Question B: A significant factor behind today’s inflation in some sectors of the European economy is dominant corporations in uncompetitive markets taking advantage of their market power to raise prices in order to increase their profit margins.

Question C: A significant factor behind today’s inflation in some sectors of the European economy (both competitive and concentrated) is distortions in the aggregate economy where supply does not meet demand.

Question A: If countries could impose a ban on the use of ChatGPT and similar generative AI chatbot services that is technologically effective, they would experience a measurably negative impact on national innovation.

Question B: Regardless of whether advances in AI spur productivity growth, they are likely to create deep challenges for society – in areas from labor markets to politics, and including disinformation, privacy, crime, and warfare – that will be difficult to anticipate, plan for, and contain.

Question A: Use of artificial intelligence over the next ten years will lead to a substantial increase in the growth rates of real per capita income in the US and Western Europe over the subsequent two decades.

Question B: Use of artificial intelligence over the next ten years will have a substantially bigger impact on the growth rates of real per capita income in the US and Western Europe over the subsequent two decades than the internet has had over the past two decades.

Question A: Preserving the financial viability of France's state pension system is better achieved by raising the effective retirement age than by raising contributions while working.

Question B: Preserving the financial viability of France's state pension system is better achieved by raising the effective retirement age than by reducing benefits once retired.

Question A: Financial regulators in the US and Europe lack the tools and authority to deter runs on banks by uninsured depositors.

Question B: Not guaranteeing uninsured deposits at Silicon Valley Bank in full would have created substantial damage to the US economy.

Question C: Fully guaranteeing uninsured deposits at Silicon Valley Bank substantially increases banks’ incentives to engage in excessive risk-taking.

Question A: The amendments to the Northern Ireland protocol agreed by the UK and the EU are unlikely to have a measurable direct impact on UK growth over the next two years.

Question B: If renewed UK-EU scientific cooperation were achieved in the wake of the Windsor framework, it would be likely to have a measurable positive impact on UK growth over the next five years.

Question A: Adam Smith’s metaphor of the invisible hand has been foundational to the development of modern economic theory.

Question B: Adam Smith’s metaphor of the invisible hand has been commonly misinterpreted as advocacy for pure laissez-faire capitalism.

Question A: Loosening regulations on state aid to allow targeted incentives for companies in certain sectors will substantially improve the EU’s relative attractiveness for corporate investment.

Question B: Loosening regulations on state aid will give a substantial advantage to the economies of EU members with stronger public finances.

Question C: Even if looser regulations on state aid are temporary, they risk permanent damage to the EU’s longstanding competition policy regime.

Question A: Without government intervention, take-up of electric vehicles will be substantially less than is desirable to reduce carbon emissions.

Question B: To encourage greater take-up of electric vehicles, public expenditure on infrastructure to support them (such as charging stations) is likely to be more cost-effective than providing equivalent amounts as tax credits/purchase rebates for buyers.

Question A: Network externalities give Twitter an incumbent advantage that will slow substantially the migration of users who would prefer alternative platforms.

Question B: As of now, there needs to be more government regulation around Twitter’s content moderation and personal data protection.

Question A: The carbon border adjustment mechanism will ensure that the European Union’s green objectives are not undermined by the relocation of EU production in the sectors under the mechanism to non-EU countries with less ambitious climate policies (‘carbon leakage').

Question B: To the extent that the carbon border adjustment mechanism is effective in reducing emissions and carbon leakage, it will impose substantial costs on the economies of poorer countries.

Question A: Research on the nature and impact of bank runs has made it possible to limit the occurrence of financial crises and the economic damage they cause.

Question B: Despite repeated reforms of financial regulation (and macroprudential policies in some countries), there will always be occasional financial crises.

Question A: The UK’s removal of the cap on bankers' bonuses (introduced by the EU in 2014 and which limits payouts to two times annual base salary) will provide a measurable boost to the country’s economic growth.

Question B: Removing the cap on bankers' bonuses will measurably enhance the global competitiveness of the UK’s financial services sector.

Question C: Removing the cap on bankers' bonuses will pose a measurable risk to financial stability in the UK.

Question A: A price cap imposed by the G7/EU countries on purchases of Russian oil and oil-related products (and which applies to all importers of Russian oil using Western trade infrastructure, shipping, and insurance) would be an effective measure to reduce the flow of revenues to Russia.

Question B: The oil price cap imposed by the G7/EU countries will not have a substantial effect on the world oil price (such as the Brent crude benchmark).

Question A: The increasing share of income and wealth among the richest people in a number of advanced countries is giving significantly more political power to the wealthy.

Question B: The increasing share of income and wealth among the richest people in a number of advanced countries is having a significantly negative effect on intergenerational social mobility.

Question C: The increasing share of income and wealth among the richest people in a number of advanced countries is a major threat to capitalism.

Question A: A windfall tax on the excess profits of large oil and gas companies – with the revenue rebated to households – would be an efficient way to provide temporary relief for the average household in European countries from rising energy costs.

Question B: Fiscal measures putting a cap on consumer energy prices would be a more appropriate immediate response to increased inflation in the euro area than raising interest rates.

Stablecoins that are not fully backed by either central bank reserves or government securities with minimal price volatility are inherently vulnerable to runs.

High tariffs imposed by the European Union on imports of Russian natural gas would be an effective measure to reduce the flow of revenues to Russia while limiting disruption to supplies to Europe.

Rather than using second-round runoffs to settle elections in which no candidate wins a first-round majority, the overall preferences of the electorate would be better reflected by using a single round with ranked-choice voting, in which voters are instructed to rank all of the candidates.

Question A:

Rising energy prices suggest that the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve will have to increase interest rates faster than they intended to before the invasion.

Question B: Increased public spending by European countries to accommodate larger defense budgets, migration inflows and accelerated investment in alternative energy sources would be better financed mostly through taxes, rather than debt.

Question C: Economic damage from the shock to global commodity markets will fall disproportionately hard on low- and middle-income countries.

Question A:

The fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine will be stagflationary in that it will noticeably reduce global growth and raise global inflation over the next year.

Question B: The economic and financial sanctions already implemented will lead to a deep recession in Russia.

Question C: Targeting the Russian economy through a total ban on oil and gas imports carries a high risk of recession in European economies.

Question D: Weaponizing dollar finance is likely to lead to a significant shift away from the dollar as the dominant international currency.

Question A:

High volatility in the prices of crypto assets such as Bitcoin, Dogecoin, and Ethereum largely reflects movements in investor sentiment rather than news about potential sources of fundamental value (such as possible applications, or use in illicit transactions).

Question B: Given existing regulation of the financial system, as crypto assets grow in value and become more connected to the rest of the system, the fluctuations in their valuations will pose a serious risk to financial stability in advanced economies.

Question C: Private unbacked crypto assets serve no important economic purpose.

Question A:

Firms’ incentives to reduce costs by sourcing inputs and products abroad have caused many European industries to become more vulnerable to supply chain disruptions.

Question B: Private firms have inadequate incentives to make investments to reduce the risk that disruptions in the supply of imports will cause shortages and raise domestic prices.

Question C: Prioritisation of efficiency over resilience in global supply chains makes current disruptions likely to continue beyond 2022.

Question A:

Given the centrality of semiconductors to the manufacturing of many products, securing reliable supplies should be a key strategic objective of EU and national policy.

Question B: Europe’s small role in global semiconductor production is a direct result of insufficient private investment in high-tech innovation.

Question C: Public support at EU and national level for investment along the value chain for semiconductors, including production, would be the most effective way to ensure security of supply.

Question A:

Even without renewed Covid-19 restrictions, uncertainty about the health threat from the Omicron variant is likely to deliver a significant hit to economic activity from now through the first half of 2022.

Question B: If world vaccine supply continues to be limited, global social welfare would rise by more if those vaccines were made widely available across Africa (with support for effective delivery) rather than accelerating booster vaccinations in rich countries.

Question C: Imposing travel bans on countries where new Covid-19 variants are discovered will make it less likely that countries will reveal new variants to the rest of the world.

Question A: Voluntary national targets are unlikely to be an effective mechanism for achieving sharp reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.

Question B: Agreement on a significant global price floor for all carbon emissions would be an effective step towards achieving sharp reductions in emissions.

Question C: Green innovation in the private sector would be strongly stimulated by a substantial increase in public spending on R&D for climate change mitigation and adaptation.

Question A: The introduction of natural experiments to economic analysis of the labor market and related areas has led to a more precise understanding of cause and effect.

Question B: The ‘credibility revolution’ in empirical economics has improved our understanding of a number of public policy issues, including education, immigration and the minimum wage.

Question C: In pursuit of credible research designs, researchers often seek good answers instead of good questions.

Question A: A mandate for public companies to provide climate-related disclosures (such as their greenhouse gas emissions and carbon footprint) would provide financially material information that enables investors to make better decisions.

Question B: A mandate for public companies to provide climate-related disclosures would induce them to reduce their climate impact significantly.

Question A: The current combination of US fiscal and monetary policy poses a serious risk of prolonged higher inflation.