Question A: Matching US import tariffs to the tariffs, value-added taxes and non-tariff barriers imposed on US goods by other countries would substantially reduce the US trade deficit.

Question B: The threat of retaliation against the imposition of higher tariffs on a country’s exports substantially lowers the probability of a trade war.

Question C: In the event that the threat of retaliation does not deter the imposition of tariffs, the economies of countries subject to higher tariffs on their exports would be measurably better off by responding with targeted tariffs on imports from the first mover.

Question A: The president has signed an executive order that pauses enforcement of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act.

Permanently ending US enforcement of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act will substantially increase global levels of bribery and corruption.

Question B: Permanently ending US enforcement of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act will substantially improve US businesses' long-term profits and long-term competitiveness.

Question A: The new administration has issued three executive orders related to energy and climate:

Declaring a National Energy Emergency: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/declaring-a-national-energy-emergency/
'The United States’ insufficient energy production, transportation, refining, and generation constitutes an unusual and extraordinary threat to our Nation’s economy, national security, and foreign policy. In light of these findings, I hereby declare a national emergency.'

Insufficient energy production, transportation, refining, and generation constitute a substantial threat to the US economy.

Question B: Unleashing American Energy: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/unleashing-american-energy/
'The calculation of the “social cost of carbon” is marked by logical deficiencies, a poor basis in empirical science, politicization, and the absence of a foundation in legislation… rendering the United States economy internationally uncompetitive… the Administrator of the EPA shall issue guidance to address these harmful and detrimental inadequacies, including consideration of eliminating the “social cost of carbon” calculation from any Federal permitting or regulatory decision.'

Eliminating the ‘social cost of carbon’ calculation from any Federal permitting or regulatory decision would substantially improve the international competitiveness of the US economy.

Question C: Putting America First in International Environmental Agreements: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/putting-america-first-in-international-environmental-agreements/
'In recent years, the United States has purported to join international agreements and initiatives that do not reflect our country’s values or our contributions to the pursuit of economic and environmental objectives… The United States Ambassador to the United Nations shall immediately submit formal written notification of the United States’ withdrawal from the Paris Agreement under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.'

Withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement will deliver a measurable boost to US economic growth over the next four years.

Question A: The lower willingness of private firms to go public, combined with the increased number of publicly traded firms being taken private over the last 25 years, is measurably net negative for economic growth.

Question B: All else equal, reducing regulatory barriers (including reporting requirements such as Sarbanes Oxley 404) to public listing would substantially increase the share of publicly traded firms in the economy.

Question C: The lack of transparency about unlisted private firms' financial performance substantially hinders the efficiency of the allocation of capital.

Question A: Antitrust investigations of the dominant firms in artificial intelligence are likely to lead to substantially lower prices of AI products and services for businesses and consumers.

Question B: Antitrust investigations of the dominant firms in artificial intelligence are likely to promote greater competition and innovation in AI.

Question C: Potential harms from artificial intelligence are better assessed by market deployment rather than seeking to slow the pace of AI research and implementation.