Erik Hurst image

Erik Hurst

14 Votes

Chicago Booth

  • Chicago, IL

About

  • Frank P. and Marianne R. Diassi Distinguished Service Professor of Economics
  • Director, Becker Friedman Institute for Economics
  • Co-Editor, Journal of Economic Perspectives

Voting History

US

Institutions and Prosperity

Question A: The institutions of society - such as constitutions, laws, judiciaries, and property rights - substantially shape economic decisions, policies, and outcomes.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Strongly Agree
8
Question B: On average and over the long term, democracies deliver substantially better economic growth than other forms of government.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
4
Agree
6
Question C: Countries where democracy and the rule of law are weakened are likely to experience measurable damage to their economic performance.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Agree
6
US

Sovereign Wealth Funds

Question A: The Democrats and Republicans have floated the idea of a US sovereign wealth fund. For background, see here and here.

Establishing a domestic sovereign wealth fund to invest in infrastructure, emerging technologies, and/or strategic sectors would bring substantial benefits to the US economy over a ten-year horizon.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
1
Disagree
6
Question B: The typical advanced economy could substantially boost growth by establishing a sovereign wealth fund to invest in infrastructure, emerging technologies, and/or strategic sectors.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
1
Disagree
5
Question C: For a typical advanced economy, establishing a sovereign wealth fund would be substantially better for citizens relative to paying down the debt as a use for excess revenue.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
1
Disagree
5
US

National Rent Caps

Question A: Capping annual rent increases by corporate landlords at 5%, as proposed by President Biden, would make middle-income Americans substantially better off over the next ten years.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
8
Disagree
6
Question B: Capping annual rent increases at 5%, as proposed by President Biden, would substantially reduce the amount of available apartments for rent over the next ten years.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
9
Agree
5
Question C: Capping annual rent increases at 5%, as proposed by President Biden, would substantially reduce US income inequality over the next ten years.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
5
Disagree
5
US

Tax Cuts Extension

Question A: All else equal, making permanent the 2017 tax cuts that were set to expire at the end of 2025 would substantially increase federal deficits and the federal debt over the coming decade.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
8
Agree
7
Question B: All else equal, making permanent the 2017 tax cuts that were set to expire at the end of 2025 would measurably increase the rate of US economic growth over the coming decade.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
7
Disagree
5
Question C: In the US, given Congressional budget scoring rules, temporary tax cuts generate sufficient pressure for extension as to be effectively permanent.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
1
Uncertain
5
Question A: The lower willingness of private firms to go public, combined with the increased number of publicly traded firms being taken private over the last 25 years, is measurably net negative for economic growth.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
5
Uncertain
5
Question B: All else equal, reducing regulatory barriers (including reporting requirements such as Sarbanes Oxley 404) to public listing would substantially increase the share of publicly traded firms in the economy.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
3
Agree
4
Question C: The lack of transparency about unlisted private firms' financial performance substantially hinders the efficiency of the allocation of capital.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
3
Uncertain
5
US

Regulating AI

Question A: Antitrust investigations of the dominant firms in artificial intelligence are likely to lead to substantially lower prices of AI products and services for businesses and consumers.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Uncertain
5
Question B: Antitrust investigations of the dominant firms in artificial intelligence are likely to promote greater competition and innovation in AI.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Uncertain
5
Question C: Potential harms from artificial intelligence are better assessed by market deployment rather than seeking to slow the pace of AI research and implementation.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Uncertain
5
Question A: The proposed US tariffs on Chinese EVs would lead to measurably higher employment in the US automotive industry over the next five years.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
7
Uncertain
5
Comment: If employment increases it will be so small that it will not be picked up in aggregate data.
Question B: The proposed US tariffs on Chinese EVs would lead to measurably higher prices of EVs in the US.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
5
Agree
7
Comment: The shifting patterns of production across countries will likely limit the decline in the actual supply of EV to US customers. China is already talking about moving some production to mexico to get around the tariff.
Question C: The proposed US tariffs on Chinese EVs would measurably slow the adoption of green technology by consumers.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
4
Agree
5
Comment: If prices increase meaningfully, this could slow adoption. However, I am not sure that prices will increase in a meaningful way if production from China gets reallocated to other countries.
US

Drug Policy

Reclassifying marijuana as a Schedule III drug would lead to measurably higher social welfare.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
6
Agree
5
Comment: Most states already allow medical marijuana use. So, in most states, it will have no effect. It may be best to decriminalize completely.
US

Tariffs

Question A: Tripling existing import taxes on Chinese steel and aluminum products would lead to measurably higher employment in the US steel industry over the next five years.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
8
Uncertain
5
Comment: Putting a tariff on Chinese steel and aluminum may result in the US importing less from China and more from another country. Also, the extent to which the US increases production domestically, such production is done more with machines than labor.
Question B: Tripling the tariffs would lead to measurably higher steel and aluminum prices for American producers and measurably higher finished-good prices for American consumers.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Agree
5
Question C: The gains for the American economy from tripling the tariffs would measurably outweigh the losses.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
5
Disagree
5
Universities that abandon temporary pandemic test-optional policies and return to requiring standardized test scores for admissions will create measurably enhanced opportunities for potentially high-achieving students from low-income backgrounds.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Agree
6
US

Supermarket Merger

Question A: The FTC is opposed to Kroger’s proposed acquisition of Albertsons. Critics argue that with sufficient divestitures, the deal would be consistent with past FTC policies.

Kroger’s proposed acquisition of Albertsons would lead to substantially higher grocery prices and/or lower product quality/services for customers of the two companies in locations where both are present.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
8
Uncertain
4
Question B: Kroger’s proposed acquisition of Albertsons would have a substantially negative effect on workers at the two companies in locations where both are present.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Disagree
8
Uncertain
5
US

Prescription Drugs

Question A: Allowing Medicare to negotiate prices with pharmaceutical companies will lead to a substantial reduction in the costs of prescription drugs for US retirees.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
8
Agree
5
Question B: Allowing imports of medicines from Canada will lead to a substantial reduction in the costs of prescription drugs for US consumers without compromising safety.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Agree
5
Comment: Both of these policies could lead to cost savings for consumers in the short and medium run. However, one potential concern is how such policies will affect the incentive of pharmaceutical companies to innovate new drugs going forward.
Question A: A tolling program for New York City is out for public consultation with proposed charges on vehicles entering the central business district of Manhattan summarized here: https://new.mta.info/document/129191

The proposed tolls on vehicles entering the central business district of Manhattan are likely to lead to a substantial reduction in traffic congestion in the targeted area.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
7
Agree
5
Question B: The proposed tolls on vehicles entering Manhattan are likely to lead to a substantial increase in traffic congestion just outside the central business district, above 60th Street, in the outer boroughs and New Jersey.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
7
Uncertain
4
US

Economic Sanctions and Aid

Question A: The economic and financial sanctions against Russia are substantially limiting its ability to wage war on Ukraine.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
6
Uncertain
4
Question B: In the absence of continuing flows of Western economic aid, Ukraine's wartime economy will be substantially compromised.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
7
Strongly Agree
7