About
- Fred and Eleanor Glimp Professor of Economics
- Director, Taubman Center for State and Local Government, John F. Kennedy School of Government (2004—2014)
- Chair, Department of Economics, Harvard University
Voting History
Question A: The institutions of society - such as constitutions, laws, judiciaries, and property rights - substantially shape economic decisions, policies, and outcomes.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
|
Question B: On average and over the long term, democracies deliver substantially better economic growth than other forms of government.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
|
Question C: Countries where democracy and the rule of law are weakened are likely to experience measurable damage to their economic performance.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
|
Question A: The Democrats and Republicans have floated the idea of a US sovereign wealth fund. For background, see here and here.
Establishing a domestic sovereign wealth fund to invest in infrastructure, emerging technologies, and/or strategic sectors would bring substantial benefits to the US economy over a ten-year horizon.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
|
Question B: The typical advanced economy could substantially boost growth by establishing a sovereign wealth fund to invest in infrastructure, emerging technologies, and/or strategic sectors.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
|
Question C: For a typical advanced economy, establishing a sovereign wealth fund would be substantially better for citizens relative to paying down the debt as a use for excess revenue.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
|
Question A: Capping annual rent increases by corporate landlords at 5%, as proposed by President Biden, would make middle-income Americans substantially better off over the next ten years.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
|
Question B: Capping annual rent increases at 5%, as proposed by President Biden, would substantially reduce the amount of available apartments for rent over the next ten years.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
|
Question C: Capping annual rent increases at 5%, as proposed by President Biden, would substantially reduce US income inequality over the next ten years.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
|
Question A: All else equal, making permanent the 2017 tax cuts that were set to expire at the end of 2025 would substantially increase federal deficits and the federal debt over the coming decade.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
|
Question B: All else equal, making permanent the 2017 tax cuts that were set to expire at the end of 2025 would measurably increase the rate of US economic growth over the coming decade.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
|
Question C: In the US, given Congressional budget scoring rules, temporary tax cuts generate sufficient pressure for extension as to be effectively permanent.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
|
Question A: The lower willingness of private firms to go public, combined with the increased number of publicly traded firms being taken private over the last 25 years, is measurably net negative for economic growth.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
|
Question B: All else equal, reducing regulatory barriers (including reporting requirements such as Sarbanes Oxley 404) to public listing would substantially increase the share of publicly traded firms in the economy.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
|
Question C: The lack of transparency about unlisted private firms' financial performance substantially hinders the efficiency of the allocation of capital.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
|
Question A: Antitrust investigations of the dominant firms in artificial intelligence are likely to lead to substantially lower prices of AI products and services for businesses and consumers.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
|
Question B: Antitrust investigations of the dominant firms in artificial intelligence are likely to promote greater competition and innovation in AI.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
|
Question C: Potential harms from artificial intelligence are better assessed by market deployment rather than seeking to slow the pace of AI research and implementation.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
|
Question A: The proposed US tariffs on Chinese EVs would lead to measurably higher employment in the US automotive industry over the next five years.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
|
Question B: The proposed US tariffs on Chinese EVs would lead to measurably higher prices of EVs in the US.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
|
Question C: The proposed US tariffs on Chinese EVs would measurably slow the adoption of green technology by consumers.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
|
Reclassifying marijuana as a Schedule III drug would lead to measurably higher social welfare.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
|
Question A: Tripling existing import taxes on Chinese steel and aluminum products would lead to measurably higher employment in the US steel industry over the next five years.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
|
Question B: Tripling the tariffs would lead to measurably higher steel and aluminum prices for American producers and measurably higher finished-good prices for American consumers.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
|
Question C: The gains for the American economy from tripling the tariffs would measurably outweigh the losses.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
|
Universities that abandon temporary pandemic test-optional policies and return to requiring standardized test scores for admissions will create measurably enhanced opportunities for potentially high-achieving students from low-income backgrounds.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Comment: Test scores make it possible to identify qualified people who don't come from elite feeder schools.
|
Question A: The FTC is opposed to Kroger’s proposed acquisition of Albertsons. Critics argue that with sufficient divestitures, the deal would be consistent with past FTC policies.
Kroger’s proposed acquisition of Albertsons would lead to substantially higher grocery prices and/or lower product quality/services for customers of the two companies in locations where both are present.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Comment: Many of these markets have other sources of competition -- and all have access to Amazon. Many chains have difficulty having place specific prices, which also limits the ability to exploit local market power.
|
Question B: Kroger’s proposed acquisition of Albertsons would have a substantially negative effect on workers at the two companies in locations where both are present.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Comment: It seems quite unlikely to me that a couple of grocery stores are effective monopsonists in any market.
|
Question A: Allowing Medicare to negotiate prices with pharmaceutical companies will lead to a substantial reduction in the costs of prescription drugs for US retirees.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
|
Question B: Allowing imports of medicines from Canada will lead to a substantial reduction in the costs of prescription drugs for US consumers without compromising safety.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Comment: The big issue with reducing price is reducing the incentive to innovate. One way to view this is that it reduces the ability of drug companies to price discriminate across countries.
|
Question A: A tolling program for New York City is out for public consultation with proposed charges on vehicles entering the central business district of Manhattan summarized here: https://new.mta.info/document/129191
The proposed tolls on vehicles entering the central business district of Manhattan are likely to lead to a substantial reduction in traffic congestion in the targeted area.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Comment: The track record of congestion pricing is good good in London, Singapore and Stockholm.
-see background information here |
Question B: The proposed tolls on vehicles entering Manhattan are likely to lead to a substantial increase in traffic congestion just outside the central business district, above 60th Street, in the outer boroughs and New Jersey.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Comment: If you get from place a to place b through place c, then a congestion charge on place c will lead to displacement, but if place c is a destination from place a and place b then a congestion charge in place c should reduce congestion in places a and b.
|
Question A: The economic and financial sanctions against Russia are substantially limiting its ability to wage war on Ukraine.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Comment: I am far more uncertain about the efficacy of the sanctions, than I am about the sanctions themselves. The sanctions would be justifiable even if they are primarily symbols of outrage..
|
Question B: In the absence of continuing flows of Western economic aid, Ukraine's wartime economy will be substantially compromised.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Comment: The mismatch in resources between Ukraine and Russia, and the extent of current destruction, implies to me that ending aid would lead to enormous pain and hardship.
|