About
- Douglass and Marion Campbell Professor of Economics and Professor of Computer Science
- Co-Editor of American Economic Review: Insights
- Co-Editor of Econometrica (2014—2018)
Voting History
Question A: The institutions of society - such as constitutions, laws, judiciaries, and property rights - substantially shape economic decisions, policies, and outcomes.
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Question B: On average and over the long term, democracies deliver substantially better economic growth than other forms of government.
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Question C: Countries where democracy and the rule of law are weakened are likely to experience measurable damage to their economic performance.
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Question A: The Democrats and Republicans have floated the idea of a US sovereign wealth fund. For background, see here and here.
Establishing a domestic sovereign wealth fund to invest in infrastructure, emerging technologies, and/or strategic sectors would bring substantial benefits to the US economy over a ten-year horizon.
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Question B: The typical advanced economy could substantially boost growth by establishing a sovereign wealth fund to invest in infrastructure, emerging technologies, and/or strategic sectors.
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Question C: For a typical advanced economy, establishing a sovereign wealth fund would be substantially better for citizens relative to paying down the debt as a use for excess revenue.
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Question A: Capping annual rent increases by corporate landlords at 5%, as proposed by President Biden, would make middle-income Americans substantially better off over the next ten years.
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Comment: The housing market is very heterogeneous across the US, thus a uniform rule is unlikely to respect the local conditions.
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Question B: Capping annual rent increases at 5%, as proposed by President Biden, would substantially reduce the amount of available apartments for rent over the next ten years.
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Question C: Capping annual rent increases at 5%, as proposed by President Biden, would substantially reduce US income inequality over the next ten years.
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Question A: All else equal, making permanent the 2017 tax cuts that were set to expire at the end of 2025 would substantially increase federal deficits and the federal debt over the coming decade.
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Comment: I am not aware of the specifics of the 2017 tax cut that you refer to, neither might the readers.
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Question B: All else equal, making permanent the 2017 tax cuts that were set to expire at the end of 2025 would measurably increase the rate of US economic growth over the coming decade.
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Comment: I would find some specific reference to the tax cut useful
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Question C: In the US, given Congressional budget scoring rules, temporary tax cuts generate sufficient pressure for extension as to be effectively permanent.
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Question A: The lower willingness of private firms to go public, combined with the increased number of publicly traded firms being taken private over the last 25 years, is measurably net negative for economic growth.
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Comment: The balance of public and private markets may change over time.
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Question B: All else equal, reducing regulatory barriers (including reporting requirements such as Sarbanes Oxley 404) to public listing would substantially increase the share of publicly traded firms in the economy.
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Question C: The lack of transparency about unlisted private firms' financial performance substantially hinders the efficiency of the allocation of capital.
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Question A: Antitrust investigations of the dominant firms in artificial intelligence are likely to lead to substantially lower prices of AI products and services for businesses and consumers.
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Did Not Answer | |||
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Question B: Antitrust investigations of the dominant firms in artificial intelligence are likely to promote greater competition and innovation in AI.
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Question C: Potential harms from artificial intelligence are better assessed by market deployment rather than seeking to slow the pace of AI research and implementation.
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Question A: The proposed US tariffs on Chinese EVs would lead to measurably higher employment in the US automotive industry over the next five years.
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Comment: The EVs produced in China are substitutes for the EVs produced in the US. By increasing the price of the imports, the domestic products become more competitive.
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Question B: The proposed US tariffs on Chinese EVs would lead to measurably higher prices of EVs in the US.
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Comment: The market for EVs is very competitive already, thus a restriction for a subset of supplier will not affect the overall market price
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Question C: The proposed US tariffs on Chinese EVs would measurably slow the adoption of green technology by consumers.
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Reclassifying marijuana as a Schedule III drug would lead to measurably higher social welfare.
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Comment: Social welfare can mean a lot of things, and such a policy would effect many groups very differently.
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Question A: Tripling existing import taxes on Chinese steel and aluminum products would lead to measurably higher employment in the US steel industry over the next five years.
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Comment: The substitution of chinese steel can come from many sources, thus the impact of american steel employment is less than clear.
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Question B: Tripling the tariffs would lead to measurably higher steel and aluminum prices for American producers and measurably higher finished-good prices for American consumers.
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Question C: The gains for the American economy from tripling the tariffs would measurably outweigh the losses.
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Universities that abandon temporary pandemic test-optional policies and return to requiring standardized test scores for admissions will create measurably enhanced opportunities for potentially high-achieving students from low-income backgrounds.
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Comment: In absence of some common measure and effort, applicants will spend time and effort on other, more subjective criteria that have less immediate statistical power,
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Question A: The FTC is opposed to Kroger’s proposed acquisition of Albertsons. Critics argue that with sufficient divestitures, the deal would be consistent with past FTC policies.
Kroger’s proposed acquisition of Albertsons would lead to substantially higher grocery prices and/or lower product quality/services for customers of the two companies in locations where both are present.
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Comment: The grocery market is a very competitive business, but with consolidation competition vanishes.
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Question B: Kroger’s proposed acquisition of Albertsons would have a substantially negative effect on workers at the two companies in locations where both are present.
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Comment: with less competition for workers, and fewer stores, there are fewer jobs.
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Question A: Allowing Medicare to negotiate prices with pharmaceutical companies will lead to a substantial reduction in the costs of prescription drugs for US retirees.
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Comment: By buying in larger quantities, qunaitty discounts can be negotiated.
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Question B: Allowing imports of medicines from Canada will lead to a substantial reduction in the costs of prescription drugs for US consumers without compromising safety.
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Comment: Opening several supply lines into a single market is a time-tested way to increase competition and lower prices. It reduces the ability of third-degree pirce discrimination.
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Question A: A tolling program for New York City is out for public consultation with proposed charges on vehicles entering the central business district of Manhattan summarized here: https://new.mta.info/document/129191
The proposed tolls on vehicles entering the central business district of Manhattan are likely to lead to a substantial reduction in traffic congestion in the targeted area.
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Question B: The proposed tolls on vehicles entering Manhattan are likely to lead to a substantial increase in traffic congestion just outside the central business district, above 60th Street, in the outer boroughs and New Jersey.
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