Chad Syverson image

Chad Syverson

12 Votes

Chicago Booth

  • Chicago, IL

About

  • George C. Tiao Distinguished Service Professor of Economics
  • Editor Journal of Political Economy (2018—2022)
  • National Academy of Sciences Panel on Reengineering the Census Bureau’s Annual Economic Surveys (2015—2018)

Voting History

US

Institutions and Prosperity

Question A: The institutions of society - such as constitutions, laws, judiciaries, and property rights - substantially shape economic decisions, policies, and outcomes.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
10
Strongly Agree
8
Question B: On average and over the long term, democracies deliver substantially better economic growth than other forms of government.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Agree
6
Comment: Seems that a summary of the best estimates in the literature indicate a positive but modest causal effect, but this stuff is inherently hard to measure well
Question C: Countries where democracy and the rule of law are weakened are likely to experience measurable damage to their economic performance.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Agree
6
US

Sovereign Wealth Funds

Question A: The Democrats and Republicans have floated the idea of a US sovereign wealth fund. For background, see here and here.

Establishing a domestic sovereign wealth fund to invest in infrastructure, emerging technologies, and/or strategic sectors would bring substantial benefits to the US economy over a ten-year horizon.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
2
Disagree
6
Question B: The typical advanced economy could substantially boost growth by establishing a sovereign wealth fund to invest in infrastructure, emerging technologies, and/or strategic sectors.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
2
Disagree
5
Question C: For a typical advanced economy, establishing a sovereign wealth fund would be substantially better for citizens relative to paying down the debt as a use for excess revenue.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
3
Disagree
5
US

National Rent Caps

Question A: Capping annual rent increases by corporate landlords at 5%, as proposed by President Biden, would make middle-income Americans substantially better off over the next ten years.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Disagree
4
Disagree
6
Comment: Dear Lord please don't.
Question B: Capping annual rent increases at 5%, as proposed by President Biden, would substantially reduce the amount of available apartments for rent over the next ten years.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
5
Agree
5
Comment: If a return cap on any asset might bind, you will reduce investment in that asset, all else equal.
Question C: Capping annual rent increases at 5%, as proposed by President Biden, would substantially reduce US income inequality over the next ten years.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
4
Disagree
5
US

Tax Cuts Extension

Question A: All else equal, making permanent the 2017 tax cuts that were set to expire at the end of 2025 would substantially increase federal deficits and the federal debt over the coming decade.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
8
Agree
7
Comment: "All else equal" doing some work here, as in isolation continuing the tax cut will increase deficits relative to expiration; it has not come near to paying for itself
-see background information here
Question B: All else equal, making permanent the 2017 tax cuts that were set to expire at the end of 2025 would measurably increase the rate of US economic growth over the coming decade.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
4
Disagree
5
Comment: This is a tough one. The evidence indicates capital accumulation benefits of 2017 TCJA, but we are entering a fiscal situation where continued large deficits might hamper long-run growth.
-see background information here
Question C: In the US, given Congressional budget scoring rules, temporary tax cuts generate sufficient pressure for extension as to be effectively permanent.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
4
Uncertain
5
Question A: The lower willingness of private firms to go public, combined with the increased number of publicly traded firms being taken private over the last 25 years, is measurably net negative for economic growth.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Uncertain
5
Comment: I'm not clear on this one at all. Maybe startups' strategy shift from IPO to acquisition is somewhat harmful, but beyond that I just don't know.
Question B: All else equal, reducing regulatory barriers (including reporting requirements such as Sarbanes Oxley 404) to public listing would substantially increase the share of publicly traded firms in the economy.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Agree
4
Comment: If you reduce the cost of doing something that is beneficial to someone, they will do more of it.
Question C: The lack of transparency about unlisted private firms' financial performance substantially hinders the efficiency of the allocation of capital.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
3
Uncertain
5
Comment: I would defer strongly to my accounting colleagues here.
US

Regulating AI

Question A: Antitrust investigations of the dominant firms in artificial intelligence are likely to lead to substantially lower prices of AI products and services for businesses and consumers.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Uncertain
5
Question B: Antitrust investigations of the dominant firms in artificial intelligence are likely to promote greater competition and innovation in AI.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Uncertain
5
Question C: Potential harms from artificial intelligence are better assessed by market deployment rather than seeking to slow the pace of AI research and implementation.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Uncertain
5
Question A: The proposed US tariffs on Chinese EVs would lead to measurably higher employment in the US automotive industry over the next five years.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
5
Uncertain
5
Comment: US employment effect depends on many factors and margins of substitution; e.g., do Chinese manufacturers move production and to where, can U.S. producers ramp up EV and how does this cannibalize their ICE sales
Question B: The proposed US tariffs on Chinese EVs would lead to measurably higher prices of EVs in the US.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
7
Agree
7
Question C: The proposed US tariffs on Chinese EVs would measurably slow the adoption of green technology by consumers.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Agree
5
US

Drug Policy

Reclassifying marijuana as a Schedule III drug would lead to measurably higher social welfare.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
8
Agree
5
Comment: Schedule I for marijuana is a decades-old mistake that created massive enforcement costs (direct and spillover). Moving away from it helps. Further moves in that direction may be optimal.
US

Tariffs

Question A: Tripling existing import taxes on Chinese steel and aluminum products would lead to measurably higher employment in the US steel industry over the next five years.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
6
Uncertain
5
Comment: Lots of substitution margins around Chinese-produced steel and aluminum, of which shift to domestic employment is only one.
Question B: Tripling the tariffs would lead to measurably higher steel and aluminum prices for American producers and measurably higher finished-good prices for American consumers.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
8
Agree
5
Comment: Size depends on available substitution margins, but hard to imagine how it would ever reduce finished-goods prices.
Question C: The gains for the American economy from tripling the tariffs would measurably outweigh the losses.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
7
Disagree
5
Comment: I believe there are agglomerative forces in manufacturing, but these sectors don't seem the place for large ones.
Universities that abandon temporary pandemic test-optional policies and return to requiring standardized test scores for admissions will create measurably enhanced opportunities for potentially high-achieving students from low-income backgrounds.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
8
Agree
6
Comment: In absence of standardized scores, schools could switch and were switching to even more (income-correlated) manipulable criteria. I'm a little surprised anyone who ever went to school in a mixed income environment expected any other outcome.
US

Supermarket Merger

Question A: The FTC is opposed to Kroger’s proposed acquisition of Albertsons. Critics argue that with sufficient divestitures, the deal would be consistent with past FTC policies.

Kroger’s proposed acquisition of Albertsons would lead to substantially higher grocery prices and/or lower product quality/services for customers of the two companies in locations where both are present.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Uncertain
4
Question B: Kroger’s proposed acquisition of Albertsons would have a substantially negative effect on workers at the two companies in locations where both are present.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Uncertain
5
US

Prescription Drugs

Question A: Allowing Medicare to negotiate prices with pharmaceutical companies will lead to a substantial reduction in the costs of prescription drugs for US retirees.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
7
Agree
5
Comment: In the short run, certainly. Everyone raises future innovation effects, and I understand the argument, but I'm not sure why the government paying P>>>MC on the margin is the way to subsidize research. Drug-by-drug, I think it makes sense for gov't to bargain like any other buyer.
Question B: Allowing imports of medicines from Canada will lead to a substantial reduction in the costs of prescription drugs for US consumers without compromising safety.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Agree
5
Comment: I think the equilibrium is harder to predict for re-importation than Medicare/Medicaid bargaining. But I think some price drops are more likely than not.
Question A: A tolling program for New York City is out for public consultation with proposed charges on vehicles entering the central business district of Manhattan summarized here: https://new.mta.info/document/129191

The proposed tolls on vehicles entering the central business district of Manhattan are likely to lead to a substantial reduction in traffic congestion in the targeted area.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Agree
5
Comment: London saw a decrease in traffic for a few years but in the long run it seems to have come back. (Though of course it is hard to know the counterfactual; traffic could well be even worse now if not for the congestion charge.)
Question B: The proposed tolls on vehicles entering Manhattan are likely to lead to a substantial increase in traffic congestion just outside the central business district, above 60th Street, in the outer boroughs and New Jersey.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
2
Uncertain
4
Comment: We usually see some substitution to spatial pricing, though again it is difficult to know how much to expect in this case.
US

Economic Sanctions and Aid

Question A: The economic and financial sanctions against Russia are substantially limiting its ability to wage war on Ukraine.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Uncertain
4
Comment: Russian gov't revenues have been affected by oil price cap, and sanctions have made it harder to obtain certain parts important for military industrial production. Though it seems they are increasingly finding ways around the latter.
Question B: In the absence of continuing flows of Western economic aid, Ukraine's wartime economy will be substantially compromised.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
7
Strongly Agree
7