Clark Center Forum

This is Round 06 of the FiveThirtyEight/IGM COVID-19 Economic Outlook survey. This survey series is overseen by Professors Allan Timmermann and Jonathan Wright. The list of experts answering the questions is identified in the post along with the responses. Individual responses are anonymous. A simple summary of responses of Round 06 appears here on the […] 

Despite the latest GDP figures showing that the US economy had contracted nearly 10% in the second quarter and with unemployment insurance claim numbers continuing to rise, there is still no resolution in Washington on whether the enhanced federal benefits for the jobless set to expire today (31 July) will be extended in some form.

We recently invited our panel to express their views on the possible trade-off between work incentives and the income support provided by the unemployment insurance supplements, whether the top-ups should be reduced or ended, and how the economic and public health conditions in each state might determine the level of federal UI contributions.

 

Lubos Pastor and Blair Vorsatz Active fund managers are widely believed to outperform during market downturns. This column uses daily returns from US active equity mutual funds to examine fund performance and investor behaviour in the midst of the COVID-19 crisis. It finds that active equity mutual funds underperform a variety of passive benchmarks, contradicting […] 

This week’s IGM European Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) Right now, the central focus of fiscal policy should be on temporary measures to provide protection and promote rapid economic recovery rather than trying to advance other objectives, such as reducing debt, tackling climate change or addressing inequality.

B) Cutting taxes on firms (or delaying tax collection) will allow more of them to survive and be more effective than public spending for triggering a rapid economic recovery.

C) European recovery fund disbursements to crisis-hit countries should be primarily in the form of grants rather than loans.

D) European recovery fund disbursements to crisis-hit countries should not be made on condition of commitments to reform by recipients. 

Bengt Holmström “I have been involved in many economic crises, including three major ones in Sweden. But I have never previously experienced such a rapid course of events and so many decisions being taken in such a short space of time.”, said the Governor of the Swedish Riksbank Stefan Ingves in a speech at the […] 

Raghuram Rajan As the coronavirus pandemic seems to accelerate the end of the era of globalisation – and as electorates around the world decry out-of-touch elites – Raghuram Rajan joins CoronaNomics to discuss whether whether the time has come for a wave of radical political devolution. Watch video> 

This is Round 05 of the FiveThirtyEight/IGM COVID-19 Economic Outlook survey. This survey series is overseen by Professors Allan Timmermann and Jonathan Wright. The list of experts answering the questions is identified in the post along with the responses. Individual responses are anonymous. A simple summary of responses of Round 05 appears here on the […] 

Despite the latest GDP figures showing that the US economy had contracted nearly 10% in the second quarter and with unemployment insurance claim numbers continuing to rise, there is still no resolution in Washington on whether the enhanced federal benefits for the jobless set to expire today (31 July) will be extended in some form.

 

Marianne Bertrand et al Wave 3 The latest results from a U.S. household survey reveal that a loss of income due to the pandemic has led many Americans to admit that the #COVID19 is worse than they expected, but that also depends on where people get their news. The results were released today by the […] 

In this respect the idea of the Universal Ultra Base Income (UUBI) is discussed and the positive impact it may have in times of crises such as now. The three Laureates debate how the UUBI may help to stop or decelerate the spreading of COVID-19 in certain areas. Banerjee, Duflo and Kremer also discuss how a UUBI would influence different developing countries and the difference in their infrastructure which makes it harder or easier to distribute a possible UUBI in the rural areas.