Clark Center Forum

About the Clark Center Forum

The Forum for the Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets is home to the European, Finance, and US Economic Experts Panels as well as a repository of thoughtful, current, and reliable information regarding topics of the day.
Finance

Debt Ceiling

Question A:

Missing payments on the US Treasury security obligations for several weeks would pose a substantial risk of a global financial crisis.

Responses

© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
8%
3%
3%
0%
23%
48%
18%
Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology
Question B:

The requirement to periodically increase the debt ceiling measurably reduces the long-run size of the debt.

Responses

© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
8%
3%
25%
33%
23%
10%
0%
Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology
 
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Bonds
US

Debt Ceiling

Question A:

A combination of the US federal government having to defer some invoice, benefit, and salary payments, and miss payments on Treasury securities for several weeks would do substantial damage to financial markets.

Responses

© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
17%
0%
0%
2%
12%
40%
29%
Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology
Question B:

A combination of the US federal government having to defer some invoice, benefit, and salary payments, and miss payments on Treasury securities for several weeks would lead to substantially lower employment within six months.

Responses

© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
17%
0%
0%
7%
40%
29%
7%
Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology
Question C:

The requirement to periodically increase the debt ceiling measurably reduces the long-run size of the debt.

Responses

© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
17%
0%
33%
21%
19%
10%
0%
Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology
 
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Business Cycles, Recessions, & Crises
Europe

State Aid

This European survey examines (a) Loosening regulations on state aid to allow targeted incentives for companies in certain sectors will substantially improve the EU’s relative attractiveness for corporate investment; (b) Loosening regulations on state aid will give a substantial advantage to the economies of EU members with stronger public finances; (c) Even if looser regulations on state aid are temporary, they risk permanent damage to the EU’s longstanding competition policy regime 
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Investment, Infrastructure, & Cities
US

Non-Compete Clauses

This US survey examines (a) Prohibiting firms from imposing employment contract provisions that prevent workers from moving to a competitor or starting a competing business would lead to a substantial increase in wages in the affected industries; (b) A ban on non-compete clauses would lead to a measurable increase in innovation; (c) A ban on non-compete clauses would lead to a measurable reduction in firms’ investment in staff training

  
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Jobs, Pay, & Unemployment
Finance

Public and Private Equities

This Finance survey examines (a) Although the reported volatility of asset values in private markets (private equity, buyouts, and venture capital) is lower than that of comparable assets in public markets, their true volatility is broadly similar or greater; (b) Since the global financial crisis, the realized returns on private equities have measurably exceeded the returns on public equities 
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US

Music Event Ticketing

This US survey examines (a) The market power of event ticket-selling intermediaries leads to consumers who ultimately attend the events paying substantially more and producers receiving substantially less than they would if the intermediary sector were more competitive; (b) The present system of initial ticket selling and reselling through secondary ticket intermediaries often leads to large transfers between different groups of ticket buyers that could be partially captured by artists through higher initial ticket prices; (c) Artists set prices at less than market-clearing levels in an effort to provide access for fans with modest incomes 
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Regulation, Competition, & Market Power
Europe

Electric Vehicles

This European survey examines (a) Without government intervention, take-up of electric vehicles will be substantially less than is desirable to reduce carbon emissions; (b) To encourage greater take-up of electric vehicles, public expenditure on infrastructure to support them (such as charging stations) is likely to be more cost-effective than providing equivalent amounts as tax credits/purchase rebates for buyers 
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Environment, Climate Change, & Natural Resources
FT-Booth US Macroeconomists Survey

FTxIGM: Unemployment to rise?

This installment of the FTxIGM US Macroeconomists Survey discusses the possibility of rising unemployment vis-a-vis the expectation that the Fed will be able to stem inflation. It also examines the US housing market. The summary results are below and you can read the Financial Times article here, subscription required. View the results of this survey […] 
Read More
FT-Booth US Macroeconomists Survey
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Topics

BankingBondsBusiness Cycles, Recessions, & CrisesBusiness, Management, & Corporate PerformanceCorporate GovernanceDemocracy, Government, & Public PolicyDemographics, Aging, & GenderEconomic Growth, Development, & ProductivityEconomists, Economic Theory, & Economic OrganizationsEducation & SkillsEnvironment, Climate Change, & Natural ResourcesFinance and the EconomyFinancial CrisesFinancial Markets & BankingFinancial RegulationHealthcare & WellbeingInternational FinanceInternational Trade & Exchange RatesInvestment ManagementInvestment, Infrastructure, & CitiesInvestmentsJobs, Pay, & UnemploymentMigrationMonetary Policy, Interest Rates, & InflationPersonal FinancePoverty, Inequality, & Social MobilityPublic Debt & DeficitsRegulation, Competition, & Market PowerScience, Technology, & InnovationSocial Policy & SocietyTaxes & Public SpendingTransport

Recent Polls

Foreign Aid

Foreign Aid

April 9th, 2025
Foreign Aid

Foreign Aid

April 9th, 2025
Debt and the Dollar

Debt and the Dollar

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Economic Statistics

March 25th, 2025
Capping Credit Card Interest Rates

Capping Credit Card Interest Rates

March 25th, 2025

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