Clark Center Forum

About the Clark Center Forum

The Forum for the Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets is home to the European, Finance, and US Economic Experts Panels as well as a repository of thoughtful, current, and reliable information regarding topics of the day.
US

AI and Productivity Growth

Question A:

Use of artificial intelligence over the next ten years will lead to a substantial increase in the growth rates of real per capita income in the US and Western Europe over the subsequent two decades.

Responses

© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
7%
0%
0%
2%
46%
44%
0%
Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology
Question B:

Use of artificial intelligence over the next ten years will have a substantially bigger impact on the growth rates of real per capita income in the US and Western Europe over the subsequent two decades than the internet has had over the past two decades.

Responses

© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
7%
0%
0%
12%
61%
20%
0%
Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology
 
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Economic Growth, Development, & Productivity
Europe

AI and Productivity Growth

Question A:

Use of artificial intelligence over the next ten years will lead to a substantial increase in the growth rates of real per capita income in the US and Western Europe over the subsequent two decades.

Responses

© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
22%
0%
2%
0%
42%
32%
2%
Source: European Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology
Question B:

Use of artificial intelligence over the next ten years will have a substantially bigger impact on the growth rates of real per capita income in the US and Western Europe over the subsequent two decades than the internet has had over the past two decades.

Responses

© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
22%
0%
0%
6%
62%
10%
0%
Source: European Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology
 
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Economic Growth, Development, & Productivity
Europe

France’s Retirement Age

This European survey examines (a) Preserving the financial viability of France's state pension system is better achieved by raising the effective retirement age than by raising contributions while working; (b) Preserving the financial viability of France's state pension system is better achieved by raising the effective retirement age than by reducing benefits once retired 
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Demographics, Aging, & Gender
Finance

Discount Rates

This Finance survey examines (a) Despite the empirical failures of the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) in explaining expected stock returns, a shareholder-value maximizing publicly-traded firm should still use the CAPM to calculate the cost of equity in capital budgeting; (b) The equity risk premium that U.S. publicly traded firms should use in cost of equity calculations in April 2023 is above 6% 
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Business, Management, & Corporate Performance
US

Dollar Dominance

This US survey examines (a) Use of the renminbi in world trade, as a reserve currency, and/or for foreign bond denomination is likely to increase substantially relative to the dollar over the next ten years; (b) Ceteris paribus, a shift to a more multi-polar international monetary system would have substantial negative implications for the US economy 
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Financial Markets & Banking
Finance

Banking Crisis

This Finance survey examines (a) Financial regulators in the US and Europe lack the tools and authority to deter runs on banks by uninsured depositors; (b) Not guaranteeing uninsured deposits at Silicon Valley Bank in full would have created substantial damage to the US economy; (c) Fully guaranteeing uninsured deposits at Silicon Valley Bank substantially increases banks’ incentives to engage in excessive risk-taking 
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Banking
Europe

Banking Crisis

This European survey examines (a) Financial regulators in the US and Europe lack the tools and authority to deter runs on banks by uninsured depositors; (b) Not guaranteeing uninsured deposits at Silicon Valley Bank in full would have created substantial damage to the US economy; (c) Fully guaranteeing uninsured deposits at Silicon Valley Bank substantially increases banks’ incentives to engage in excessive risk-taking 
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Banking
US

Banking Crisis

This US survey examines (a) Financial regulators in the US and Europe lack the tools and authority to deter runs on banks by uninsured depositors; (b) Not guaranteeing uninsured deposits at Silicon Valley Bank in full would have created substantial damage to the US economy; (c) Fully guaranteeing uninsured deposits at Silicon Valley Bank substantially increases banks’ incentives to engage in excessive risk-taking 
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Banking
FT-Booth US Macroeconomists Survey

FTxIGM: Economists think Fed will keep raising rates

This installment of the FTxIGM US Macroeconomists Survey discusses possible paths forward for the Fed vis-a-vis rate increases in light of recent banking sector news. The summary results are below and you can read the Financial Times article here, subscription required. View the results of this survey >> For social media: Please use the hashtag […] 
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FT-Booth US Macroeconomists Survey
US

Medicare Funding

This US survey examines (a) If it is implemented, the proposed increase in the tax rate on earned and business income above $400,000 in the Biden budget, along with other proposed changes to Medicare, would extend the solvency of the Medicare program for the next 25 years; (b) If it is implemented, the proposed reform of Medicare drug negotiations in the Biden budget is likely to lead to a substantial reduction in drug prices for beneficiaries; (c) If it is implemented, the proposed reform of Medicare drug negotiations in the Biden budget is likely to lead to a substantial reduction in the development of beneficial new drugs 
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Healthcare & Wellbeing
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Topics

BankingBondsBusiness Cycles, Recessions, & CrisesBusiness, Management, & Corporate PerformanceCorporate GovernanceDemocracy, Government, & Public PolicyDemographics, Aging, & GenderEconomic Growth, Development, & ProductivityEconomists, Economic Theory, & Economic OrganizationsEducation & SkillsEnvironment, Climate Change, & Natural ResourcesFinance and the EconomyFinancial CrisesFinancial Markets & BankingFinancial RegulationHealthcare & WellbeingInternational FinanceInternational Trade & Exchange RatesInvestment ManagementInvestment, Infrastructure, & CitiesInvestmentsJobs, Pay, & UnemploymentMigrationMonetary Policy, Interest Rates, & InflationPersonal FinancePoverty, Inequality, & Social MobilityPublic Debt & DeficitsRegulation, Competition, & Market PowerScience, Technology, & InnovationSocial Policy & SocietyTaxes & Public SpendingTransport

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