Finance Panel

The Clark Center for Global Markets explores finance professors’ views on vital policy issues via our Finance Panel.  We regularly poll over 40 individuals on a range of timely and relevant topics.  Panelists not only have the opportunity to respond to a poll’s statements, but an opportunity to comment and provide additional resources, if they wish. The Clark Center then shares the results with the public in a straightforward and concise format.

Please note that from September 2022, the language in our polls will use just two modifiers to refer to the size of an effect:

  • ‘Substantial’: when an effect is large enough that it would make a difference that matters for the behavior involved.
  • ‘Measurable’: when the direction of the effect is clear, but perhaps experts would differ as to whether it is substantial.
Finance

U.S. Credit Rating

The recent downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating reflects a measurable probability that an investor in U.S. Treasury securities would not be paid in full in nominal terms.

 
Finance

Central Banking and Climate Change

Question A:

Under current policies on climate change, the associated physical risks (such as those arising from total seasonal rainfall and sea level changes, and increased frequency, severity, and correlation of extreme weather events) will be at most a very small factor in monetary policy decisions over the next decade.

Question B:

The physical risks associated with climate change under current policies are likely to threaten financial stability over the next decade.

 
Finance

Debt and the Dollar

This Finance survey examines (a) The US dollar's status as the dominant reserve currency substantially raises its value; (b) US-led policy interventions that discouraged central banks from holding US treasury securities would substantially diminish the dollar's reserve currency status, (c) US-led policy interventions that led to a sustained weakening in the dollar would substantially damage the US government's ability to finance its deficits 
Finance

Capping Credit Card Interest Rates

This Finance survey examines: A bipartisan bill to cap credit card interest rates at 10% has been introduced recently in the House and the Senate: https://ocasio-cortez.house.gov/media/press-releases/ocasio-cortez-luna-introduce-bill-cap-credit-card-interest-rates-10; (a) Capping credit card interest rates at 10% would make most users measurably better off; (b) Capping credit card interest rates at 10% would lead to a substantial reduction in access to credit for low-income borrowers 
Finance

Wildfires

This Finance survey examines (a) California's insurance industry regulator issued statements shortly before and shortly after the recent wildfires started (on December 30, 2024, and January 9, 2025): https://www.insurance.ca.gov/0400-news/0100-press-releases/2024/release065-2024.cfm; https://www.insurance.ca.gov/0400-news/0100-press-releases/2025/release005-2025.cfm In the face of growing wildfire risks, price caps on insurance premiums have substantially reduced the viability of private property insurance markets in California; (b) A mandatory one-year moratorium on insurance non-renewals and cancellations would lead to a substantial longer-term reduction in the supply of private home insurance products and the number of households that are insured against catastrophic risk in areas of California affected by recent wildfires. 
Finance

Stock Market Investing

This Finance survey examines (a) In general, absent any proprietary information, a retail equity investor cannot consistently make accurate predictions about whether the price of an individual stock will rise or fall on a given day; (b) In general, absent any proprietary information, a retail equity investor can expect to do better by holding a well-diversified, low-fee, passive index fund than by holding a few stocks