European Economic Experts Panel

The Clark Center for Global Markets explores economists’ views on vital policy issues via our US and European Economic Experts Panels. We regularly poll over 80 economists on a range of timely and relevant topics. Panelists not only have the opportunity to respond to a poll’s statements, but an opportunity to comment and provide additional resources, if they wish. The Clark Center then shares the results with the public in a straightforward and concise format.

Please note that from September 2022, the language in our polls will use just two modifiers to refer to the size of an effect:

‘Substantial’: when an effect is large enough that it would make a difference that matters for the behavior involved.
‘Measurable’: when the direction of the effect is clear, but perhaps experts would differ as to whether it is substantial.

Coronavirus

Europe

Coronavirus

Question A:

Even if the mortality of COVID-19 proves to be limited (similar to the number of flu deaths in a regular season), it is likely to cause a major recession.

Responses

Source: European Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Question B:

The economic effects of COVID-19 coming from reduced spending will be larger than those coming from disruptions to supply chains and illness-related workforce reductions.

Responses

Source: European Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Question C:

The economic policy institutions of the Eurozone are well equipped to ameliorate the potential economic damage from COVID-19.

Responses

Source: European Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Business Cycles, Recessions, & Crises

March 12, 2020

German and European Economic Policy

Europe

German and European Economic Policy

Question A:

Germany's current account surplus is undesirable even from a purely German viewpoint: the country would be better off if, for example, it ran a smaller primary surplus, in turn leading to a smaller current account surplus.

Responses

Source: European Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Question B:

The Eurozone would be in better shape if fiscal policy were more expansionary, which would allow monetary policy to be slightly less so.

Responses

Source: European Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Question C:

If there is a recession in the Eurozone, it will be essential to have a coordinated fiscal expansion.

Responses

Source: European Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Business Cycles, Recessions, & Crises

February 24, 2020

The European Green Deal

Europe

The European Green Deal

This week’s IGM European Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) The European Union goal of reaching net zero emissions of greenhouse gases by 2050 will be a major drag on economic growth.

B) Carbon taxes are a better way to implement climate policy than cap-and-trade.

C) A carbon border tax targeting imports from non-EU countries with less strict climate policies is likely to harm developing economies.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

January 30, 2020

‘Getting Brexit Done’

Europe

‘Getting Brexit Done’

This week’s IGM European Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) Following the UK election result, the certainty that the country is going to leave the European Union will provide a substantial short-term boost to the UK economy.

B) Given that the transition period currently expires at the end of 2020, there is still a considerable risk that the UK will leave the European Union without a trade agreement.

C) Leaving the European Union without a trade agreement would have a large negative impact on the UK economy.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

December 20, 2019

Central Banking and Climate Change

Europe

Central Banking and Climate Change

This week’s IGM European Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) Under current policies on climate change, the associated physical risks (such as those arising from total seasonal rainfall and sea level changes, and increased frequency, severity, and correlation of extreme weather events) will be at most a very small factor in monetary policy decisions over the next decade.

B) The physical risks associated with climate change under current policies are likely to threaten financial stability over the next decade.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

December 12, 2019

Research and Development

Europe

Research and Development

This week’s IGM European Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) Europeans would benefit more from an extra €1 billion of public R&D spent through existing (public) channels than from an extra €1 billion of private R&D spent through existing (private) channels, all else equal.

B) Europeans would benefit more from an extra €1 billion of public medical research spent through existing (public) channels than from an extra €1 billion of private medical research spent through existing (private) channels, all else equal.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

November 15, 2019

Experimental Research, Development Economics and Poverty Reduction

Europe

Experimental Research, Development Economics and Poverty Reduction

This week’s IGM European Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) Randomized control trials are a valuable tool for answering some long unsettled questions in development economics research.

B) Randomized control trials are a valuable tool for making significant progress in poverty reduction.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

October 25, 2019

Stakeholder Capitalism

Europe

Stakeholder Capitalism

This week’s IGM European Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) Having companies run to maximize shareholder value creates significant negative externalities for workers and communities.

B) Appropriately managed corporations could create significantly greater value than they currently do for a range of stakeholders – including workers, suppliers, customers and community members – with small impacts on shareholder value.

C) Effective mechanisms for boards of directors to ensure that CEOs act in ways that balance the interests of all stakeholders would be straightforward to introduce.

Business, Management, & Corporate Performance

October 11, 2019

Inequality, Populism, and Redistribution

Europe

Inequality, Populism, and Redistribution

This week’s IGM European Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) Rising inequality is straining the health of liberal democracy.

B) Enacting more redistributive expenditures and policies would be likely to limit the rise of populism in Europe.

C) European governments should allocate more resources to policies that would be likely to limit the rise of populism in Europe, even if it means higher public debt or lower public spending in other areas.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

September 20, 2019

European Fiscal and Monetary Policy

Europe

European Fiscal and Monetary Policy

With the Eurozone economy weakening, many commentators are calling on the European Central Bank (ECB) to provide fresh stimulus. But what if the diverse monetary policy tools used by the ECB since the financial crisis have reached the limits of their effectiveness in promoting recovery? Could European governments contribute to stimulating the economy by increasing public spending or reducing taxes? And should fiscal policy now be focused more on raising demand by ‘loosening the public purse strings’ than on reducing public debt?

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

July 24, 2019