European Economic Experts Panel

The Clark Center for Global Markets explores economists’ views on vital policy issues via our US and European Economic Experts Panels. We regularly poll over 80 economists on a range of timely and relevant topics. Panelists not only have the opportunity to respond to a poll’s statements, but an opportunity to comment and provide additional resources, if they wish. The Clark Center then shares the results with the public in a straightforward and concise format.

Please note that from September 2022, the language in our polls will use just two modifiers to refer to the size of an effect:

‘Substantial’: when an effect is large enough that it would make a difference that matters for the behavior involved.
‘Measurable’: when the direction of the effect is clear, but perhaps experts would differ as to whether it is substantial.

European Economic Recovery

Europe

European Economic Recovery

Question A:

Right now, the central focus of fiscal policy should be on temporary measures to provide protection and promote rapid economic recovery rather than trying to advance other objectives, such as reducing debt, tackling climate change or addressing inequality.

Responses

14%

16%

41%

23%

Source: European Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Question B:

Cutting taxes on firms (or delaying tax collection) will allow more of them to survive and be more effective than public spending for triggering a rapid economic recovery.

Responses

14%

30%

36%

11%

Source: European Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Question C:

European recovery fund disbursements to crisis-hit countries should be primarily in the form of grants rather than loans.

Responses

14%

11%

18%

34%

16%

Source: European Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Question D:

European recovery fund disbursements to crisis-hit countries should not be made on condition of commitments to reform by recipients.

Responses

14%

25%

18%

20%

Source: European Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Business Cycles, Recessions, & Crises

July 23, 2020

The Search for a Vaccine

Europe

The Search for a Vaccine

Question A:

Given the social and regulatory pressures to keep prices down for drugs and vaccines to treat Covid-19, the financial incentives for pharmaceutical companies to invest in such products are below the value of the investment to society.

Responses

20%

16%

27%

31%

Source: European Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Question B:

Government commitments to pay developers and manufacturers above average costs for an effective vaccine or drug treatments for Covid-19 would accelerate production.

Responses

20%

51%

11%

Source: European Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Question C:

Given the positive externalities from vaccination, an effective Covid-19 vaccine should have priority in public healthcare funding even in countries where other diseases cause more death and disability.

Responses

20%

16%

33%

24%

Source: European Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

June 23, 2020

Political Economics

Europe

Political Economics

Alberto Alesina, a founding member of the IGM economic experts panel, passed away in May 2020 – a sad loss for the whole research community. As the remembrances posted by the IGM directors on our website illustrate, Alberto was a fantastic economist, a wonderful person and a friend to many of the panelists.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

June 8, 2020

Prices of Medical Supplies

Europe

Prices of Medical Supplies

This week’s IGM European Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) Clearing the market for surgical face masks using prices is detrimental to the public good.

B) Laws to prevent high prices for essential goods in short supply in a crisis would raise social welfare.

C) Governments should buy essential medical supplies at what would have been the market price and redistribute according to need rather than ability to pay.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

May 20, 2020

COVID-19 and the World Economy

Europe

COVID-19 and the World Economy

This week’s IGM European Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) Economic damage from the virus and lockdowns will ultimately fall disproportionately hard on low- and middle-income countries.

B) A temporary standstill on sovereign debt payments by low- and middle-income countries to all official and private creditors to give those countries space to cover the immediate costs of the crisis would benefit advanced economies.

C) Export restrictions on food and medical supplies, and other protectionist measures, are likely to cost lives and slow economic recovery in all countries.

Business Cycles, Recessions, & Crises

May 5, 2020

Supporting European Businesses in the COVID-19 Crisis

Europe

Supporting European Businesses in the COVID-19 Crisis

This week’s IGM European Economic Experts Panel statements:

Government support to private firms in the form of debt (either directly or with the help of public guarantees) is desirable, but risks leaving them with too much leverage to invest and grow in the future.

Providing funds to viable businesses in the form of equity injections is a vital complement to debt support.

With the EU ban on state aid suspended, government capital injections should be provided via a newly created pan-European equity fund, rather than be left to national governments acting independently.

Business Cycles, Recessions, & Crises

April 21, 2020

Inequality and the COVID-19 Crisis

Europe

Inequality and the COVID-19 Crisis

This week’s IGM European Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) Even with the support policies implemented by European governments in response to the crisis, low-income workers will suffer a relatively bigger hit to their incomes than those further up the distribution.

B) With schools across Europe closed in the lockdown, existing gaps in access to quality education between high- and low-income households will be exacerbated.

C) Combating the effects of the pandemic on inequality should be a priority for policy interventions.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

April 14, 2020

European Economic Policy for the COVID-19 Crisis

Europe

European Economic Policy for the COVID-19 Crisis

This week’s IGM European Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) Severe lockdowns – including closing non-essential businesses and strict limitations on people’s movement – are likely to be better for the economy in the medium term than less aggressive measures.

B) While national governments have responded to the crisis with substantial economic policy measures, a joint euro area fiscal response is still highly desirable.

C) Given the willingness of the European Central Bank to buy sovereign bonds, including Italian bonds, without limits, there is no need for ‘coronabonds’.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

April 2, 2020

Coronavirus

Europe

Coronavirus

This week’s IGM European Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) Even if the mortality of COVID-19 proves to be limited (similar to the number of flu deaths in a regular season), it is likely to cause a major recession.

B) The economic effects of COVID-19 coming from reduced spending will be larger than those coming from disruptions to supply chains and illness-related workforce reductions.

C) The economic policy institutions of the Eurozone are well equipped to ameliorate the potential economic damage from COVID-19.

Business Cycles, Recessions, & Crises

March 12, 2020

German and European Economic Policy

Europe

German and European Economic Policy

This week’s IGM European Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) Germany's current account surplus is undesirable even from a purely German viewpoint: the country would be better off if, for example, it ran a smaller primary surplus, in turn leading to a smaller current account surplus.

B) The Eurozone would be in better shape if fiscal policy were more expansionary, which would allow monetary policy to be slightly less so.

C) If there is a recession in the Eurozone, it will be essential to have a coordinated fiscal expansion.

Business Cycles, Recessions, & Crises

February 24, 2020