European Economic Experts Panel

The Clark Center for Global Markets explores economists’ views on vital policy issues via our US and European Economic Experts Panels. We regularly poll over 80 economists on a range of timely and relevant topics. Panelists not only have the opportunity to respond to a poll’s statements, but an opportunity to comment and provide additional resources, if they wish. The Clark Center then shares the results with the public in a straightforward and concise format.

Please note that from September 2022, the language in our polls will use just two modifiers to refer to the size of an effect:

  • ‘Substantial’: when an effect is large enough that it would make a difference that matters for the behavior involved.
  • ‘Measurable’: when the direction of the effect is clear, but perhaps experts would differ as to whether it is substantial.
Europe

Supporting European Businesses in the COVID-19 Crisis

Question A:

Government support to private firms in the form of debt (either directly or with the help of public guarantees) is desirable, but risks leaving them with too much leverage to invest and grow in the future.

Responses

© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
11%
0%
2%
7%
20%
41%
20%
Question B:

Providing funds to viable businesses in the form of equity injections is a vital complement to debt support.

Responses

© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
11%
2%
0%
7%
37%
30%
13%
Question C:

With the EU ban on state aid suspended, government capital injections should be provided via a newly created pan-European equity fund, rather than be left to national governments acting independently.

Responses

© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
11%
2%
4%
17%
24%
20%
22%
 
Europe

Inequality and the COVID-19 Crisis

Question A:

Even with the support policies implemented by European governments in response to the crisis, low-income workers will suffer a relatively bigger hit to their incomes than those further up the distribution.

Responses

© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
9%
0%
0%
0%
13%
37%
41%
Question B:

With schools across Europe closed in the lockdown, existing gaps in access to quality education between high- and low-income households will be exacerbated.

Responses

© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
9%
0%
0%
7%
11%
28%
46%
Question C:

Combating the effects of the pandemic on inequality should be a priority for policy interventions.

Responses

© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
9%
0%
0%
15%
7%
46%
24%
 
Europe

European Economic Policy for the COVID-19 Crisis

This week’s IGM European Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) Severe lockdowns – including closing non-essential businesses and strict limitations on people’s movement – are likely to be better for the economy in the medium term than less aggressive measures.

B) While national governments have responded to the crisis with substantial economic policy measures, a joint euro area fiscal response is still highly desirable.

C) Given the willingness of the European Central Bank to buy sovereign bonds, including Italian bonds, without limits, there is no need for ‘coronabonds’. 
Europe

Coronavirus

This week’s IGM European Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) Even if the mortality of COVID-19 proves to be limited (similar to the number of flu deaths in a regular season), it is likely to cause a major recession.

B) The economic effects of COVID-19 coming from reduced spending will be larger than those coming from disruptions to supply chains and illness-related workforce reductions.

C) The economic policy institutions of the Eurozone are well equipped to ameliorate the potential economic damage from COVID-19. 
Europe

German and European Economic Policy

This week’s IGM European Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) Germany's current account surplus is undesirable even from a purely German viewpoint: the country would be better off if, for example, it ran a smaller primary surplus, in turn leading to a smaller current account surplus.

B) The Eurozone would be in better shape if fiscal policy were more expansionary, which would allow monetary policy to be slightly less so.

C) If there is a recession in the Eurozone, it will be essential to have a coordinated fiscal expansion. 
Europe

The European Green Deal

This week’s IGM European Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) The European Union goal of reaching net zero emissions of greenhouse gases by 2050 will be a major drag on economic growth.

B) Carbon taxes are a better way to implement climate policy than cap-and-trade.

C) A carbon border tax targeting imports from non-EU countries with less strict climate policies is likely to harm developing economies. 
Europe

‘Getting Brexit Done’

This week’s IGM European Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) Following the UK election result, the certainty that the country is going to leave the European Union will provide a substantial short-term boost to the UK economy.

B) Given that the transition period currently expires at the end of 2020, there is still a considerable risk that the UK will leave the European Union without a trade agreement.

C) Leaving the European Union without a trade agreement would have a large negative impact on the UK economy. 
Europe

Central Banking and Climate Change

This week’s IGM European Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) Under current policies on climate change, the associated physical risks (such as those arising from total seasonal rainfall and sea level changes, and increased frequency, severity, and correlation of extreme weather events) will be at most a very small factor in monetary policy decisions over the next decade.

B) The physical risks associated with climate change under current policies are likely to threaten financial stability over the next decade. 
Europe

Research and Development

This week’s IGM European Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) Europeans would benefit more from an extra €1 billion of public R&D spent through existing (public) channels than from an extra €1 billion of private R&D spent through existing (private) channels, all else equal.

B) Europeans would benefit more from an extra €1 billion of public medical research spent through existing (public) channels than from an extra €1 billion of private medical research spent through existing (private) channels, all else equal. 
Europe

Experimental Research, Development Economics and Poverty Reduction

This week’s IGM European Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) Randomized control trials are a valuable tool for answering some long unsettled questions in development economics research.

B) Randomized control trials are a valuable tool for making significant progress in poverty reduction.