European Economic Experts Panel

The Clark Center for Global Markets explores economists’ views on vital policy issues via our US and European Economic Experts Panels. We regularly poll over 80 economists on a range of timely and relevant topics. Panelists not only have the opportunity to respond to a poll’s statements, but an opportunity to comment and provide additional resources, if they wish. The Clark Center then shares the results with the public in a straightforward and concise format.

Please note that from September 2022, the language in our polls will use just two modifiers to refer to the size of an effect:

  • ‘Substantial’: when an effect is large enough that it would make a difference that matters for the behavior involved.
  • ‘Measurable’: when the direction of the effect is clear, but perhaps experts would differ as to whether it is substantial.
Europe

Vaccines for Developing Countries

Question A:

Reliable Covid-19 vaccines will reach developing countries more quickly if the rich countries pay the pharmaceutical companies at prevailing prices to manufacture and distribute the vaccines (or to license production and support licensees), rather than waiving patent protection.

Question B:

The benefits to the US, Canada, Europe, Japan and other rich countries of paying for 12 billion doses of Covid vaccines at prevailing prices and providing them for free to the rest of the world exceed the costs that the rich countries would incur.

 
Europe

Central Bank Digital Currency

Question A:

The Bank for International Settlements defines a central bank digital currency as follows: ‘In simple terms, a central bank digital currency (CBDC) would be a digital banknote. It could be used by individuals to pay businesses, shops or each other (a 'retail CBDC'), or between financial institutions to settle trades in financial markets (a ‘wholesale CBDC').


For developed countries, a central bank digital currency that is available to the public at large would offer social benefits that exceed the associated costs or risks.

Question B:

Central banks that do not introduce their own digital money risk losing the ability to conduct effective monetary policy.

Question C:

The introduction of a central bank digital currency is unlikely to have major effects on the economy.

 
Europe

Vaccine Development and Distribution

This week's European Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) Removing intellectual property protections on Covid-19 vaccines would substantially improve availability of the vaccines in developing countries.

B) Removing intellectual property protections on Covid-19 vaccines would have a negative impact on vaccine development efforts for future variants of SARS-CoV-2 or for the next pandemic.

C) Without an international agreement that facilitates vaccine trade, countries’ incentives to limit exports of vaccines and/or key production inputs are likely to prolong the adverse effects of the pandemic in advanced countries. 
Europe

Short Selling

This week's European Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) Allowing short selling of financial securities, such as stocks and government bonds, leads to prices that, on average, are closer to their fundamental values.


B) Requiring investors to disclose short positions in a stock at the equivalent threshold as they are required to do for long positions would result in significantly less short selling.


C) Regulatory restrictions on short selling - such as no naked shorts, temporary bans in times of crisis - make it difficult for optimists and pessimists to have equal influence on asset prices. 
Europe

Vaccines in Europe

This week's European Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) Offering substantially higher prices per dose would have resulted in larger capacity investments by vaccine makers and accelerated distribution in Europe significantly.

B) In the current situation, paying for more production capacity would be better than offering higher prices for vaccines.

C) If the EU started paying prices above 100 euros per dose, it would on net reduce the cost of the pandemic to the EU via more lives saved and shorter lockdowns. 
Europe

Tackling Obesity

This week's European Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) Policies that aim to reduce obesity by increasing incentives for physical activity would be more welfare-improving than policies that increase the financial costs of consuming calories.

B) A ban on advertising junk foods (those that are high in sugar, salt and fat) would be an effective policy to reduce child obesity.

C) Setting targets for schools to reduce obesity (e.g. by diverting financial resources to improve school meals or add cookery to the curriculum) would reduce social welfare because schools in deprived areas, where obesity is higher, are already struggling to deliver the core curriculum. 
Europe

After Brexit

The UK’s exit from the European Union (EU) was finally completed on 1 January 2021, nearly five years after the Brexit referendum of 2016. We invited both our European and US panels to express their views on the likely long-term effects on both the UK economy and the aggregate economy of the remaining 27 EU members. We asked the experts whether they agreed or disagreed with the following statements, and, if so, how strongly and with what degree of confidence:

 
Europe

Antitrust Action

The US Federal Trade Commission and 46 states have brought antitrust cases against Facebook, which could potentially require the company to unwind its acquisitions of Instagram and WhatsApp. We invited both our US and European panels to express their views on this issue by asking the experts whether they agree or disagree with the following statement, and, if so, how strongly and with what degree of confidence:

 
Europe

Personnel Economics

Edward Lazear passed away in November 2020 at the age of 72, mourned by many in the worlds of economic research and policy-making. Described by two close colleagues and co-authors at Stanford as ‘the first personnel economist’, he was also a founding member of IGM’s US panel and an important contributor to launching our project of polling economics experts on vital policy issues.