European Economic Experts Panel

The Clark Center for Global Markets explores economists’ views on vital policy issues via our US and European Economic Experts Panels. We regularly poll over 80 economists on a range of timely and relevant topics. Panelists not only have the opportunity to respond to a poll’s statements, but an opportunity to comment and provide additional resources, if they wish. The Clark Center then shares the results with the public in a straightforward and concise format.

Please note that from September 2022, the language in our polls will use just two modifiers to refer to the size of an effect:

  • ‘Substantial’: when an effect is large enough that it would make a difference that matters for the behavior involved.
  • ‘Measurable’: when the direction of the effect is clear, but perhaps experts would differ as to whether it is substantial.
Europe

Economic Fallout From Ukraine

Question A:

Rising energy prices suggest that the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve will have to increase interest rates faster than they intended to before the invasion.

Responses

© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
15%
6%
0%
19%
19%
35%
6%
Question B:

Increased public spending by European countries to accommodate larger defense budgets, migration inflows and accelerated investment in alternative energy sources would be better financed mostly through taxes, rather than debt.

Responses

© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
15%
2%
4%
25%
35%
17%
2%
Question C:

Economic damage from the shock to global commodity markets will fall disproportionately hard on low- and middle-income countries.

Responses

© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
15%
0%
0%
2%
29%
44%
10%
 
Europe

Ukraine

Question A:

The fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine will be stagflationary in that it will noticeably reduce global growth and raise global inflation over the next year.

Responses

© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
15%
2%
0%
0%
21%
40%
23%
Question B:

The economic and financial sanctions already implemented will lead to a deep recession in Russia.

Responses

© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
15%
0%
0%
0%
8%
46%
31%
Question C:

Targeting the Russian economy through a total ban on oil and gas imports carries a high risk of recession in European economies.

Responses

© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
15%
2%
0%
4%
19%
50%
10%
Question D:

Weaponizing dollar finance is likely to lead to a significant shift away from the dollar as the dominant international currency.

Responses

© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
15%
6%
2%
31%
29%
17%
0%
 
Europe

Working From Home

The pandemic has led to a big shift to working from home among people in occupations where it is possible for the jobs or some part of them to be done remotely. There has been much debate about the extent to which such forms of working (or a hybrid model, with some hours done at home and some on business premises) will continue over the longer term. Key questions include the potential impact on employees’ productivity and their job satisfaction, and whether the career trajectories of women and men may be affected differently by a substantial increase in working from home.

 
Europe

Omicron

With the emergence of a new strain of the virus that causes Covid-19 re-opening debates about the economic impact of the pandemic, the success of efforts to achieve global distribution of vaccines and the value of travel bans, we invited our panels to express their views on these issues. In early December, we asked the experts whether they agreed or disagreed with the following statements, and, if so, how strongly and with what degree of confidence:

 
Europe

Natural Experiments in Labor Economics and Beyond

The 2021 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences was recently awarded to David Card of the University of California, Berkeley, ‘for his empirical contributions to labour economics’, and to Joshua Angrist of MIT and Guido Imbens of Stanford University ‘for their methodological contributions to the analysis of causal relationships’. As has become an annual tradition at the IGM, we invited our panels to express their views on the work of the new laureates. We asked the experts whether they agreed or disagreed with the following statements, and, if so, how strongly and with what degree of confidence:

 

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