European Economic Experts Panel

The Clark Center for Global Markets explores economists’ views on vital policy issues via our US and European Economic Experts Panels. We regularly poll over 80 economists on a range of timely and relevant topics. Panelists not only have the opportunity to respond to a poll’s statements, but an opportunity to comment and provide additional resources, if they wish. The Clark Center then shares the results with the public in a straightforward and concise format.

Please note that from September 2022, the language in our polls will use just two modifiers to refer to the size of an effect:

‘Substantial’: when an effect is large enough that it would make a difference that matters for the behavior involved.
‘Measurable’: when the direction of the effect is clear, but perhaps experts would differ as to whether it is substantial.

AI and the Labor Market

Europe

AI and the Labor Market

Question A:

Use of artificial intelligence over the next ten years will have a negative impact on the earnings potential of substantial numbers of high-skilled workers in advanced countries.

Responses

Source: European Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Question B:

Use of artificial intelligence over the next ten years will lead to substantially greater uncertainty about the likely returns to investment in education.

Responses

Source: European Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Question C:

Use of artificial intelligence over the next ten years is likely to have a measurable impact in increasing income inequality.

Responses

Source: European Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Jobs, Pay, & Unemployment

September 21, 2023

AI and Market Power

Europe

AI and Market Power

Question A:

Use of artificial intelligence is likely to lead to a substantial increase in problems associated with market power in digital markets.

Responses

Source: European Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Question B:

Artificial intelligence offers substantial opportunities for new entrants into digital markets that have previously been concentrated.

Responses

Source: European Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Question C:

Artificial intelligence is likely to be a highly concentrated industry, dominated by a handful of players.

Responses

Source: European Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Regulation, Competition, & Market Power

September 21, 2023

Policy Responses to Recent Bank Failures

Europe

Policy Responses to Recent Bank Failures

This European survey examines (a) The response to recent bank failures should be to: Expand central banks’ lender of last resort facilities for banks; (b) The response to recent bank failures should be to: Substantially increase the limit on bank deposit insurance; (c) The response to recent bank failures should be to: Substantially increase bank capital requirements; (d) The response to recent bank failures should be to: Use market values of all traded assets to compute banks’ regulatory capital

Business Cycles, Recessions, & Crises

September 15, 2023

Debt Sustainability

Europe

Debt Sustainability

This European survey examines (a) Debt sustainability analysis – for example, as practiced currently by the International Monetary Fund – substantially improves the ability to predict future sovereign debt crises; (b) The European Commission’s proposed move from the existing EU fiscal rules to ones based on debt sustainability analysis would be a measurable improvement; (c) A move from the existing fiscal rules to independent fiscal councils would be more effective than a move to rules based on debt sustainability.

Public Debt & Deficits

September 14, 2023

Europe’s Environmental Taxonomy

Europe

Europe’s Environmental Taxonomy

This European survey examines (a) The EU's taxonomy for sustainable activities - a classification system that defines criteria for economic activities that are aligned with a net zero trajectory by 2050 and the broader environmental goals other than climate - is an effective way to steer greener investment and the energy transition by firms and financial institutions.
Details on the taxonomy are here: https://finance.ec.europa.eu/sustainable-finance/tools-and-standards/eu-taxonomy-sustainable-activities_en; (b) Use of the EU taxonomy for sustainable activities is likely to stifle important innovations, including in green technology; (c) On balance, use of the taxonomy in EU directives and regulation is likely to be net beneficial to European citizens.

Environment, Climate Change, & Natural Resources

September 7, 2023

Fiscal Rules

Europe

Fiscal Rules

This European survey examines (a) Fiscal rules on budget deficits and public debt levels are an essential part of a sound fiscal framework; (b) Since the inception of the Stability and Growth Pact, budget deficits in Europe have been measurably lower, on average, than would have been the case without common budget rules; (c) Since the inception of the Stability and Growth Pact, the path of GDP growth in Europe has been measurably more stable than would have been the case without common budget rules

Business Cycles, Recessions, & Crises

July 31, 2023

Non-Bank Financial Intermediaries

Europe

Non-Bank Financial Intermediaries

This European survey examines (a) Non-bank financial intermediaries pose a substantial threat to financial stability; (b) Regulating the leverage and liquidity of non-bank financial intermediaries would substantially improve financial stability; (c) Given current regulations, non-bank financial intermediaries should not have access to central bank support

Business Cycles, Recessions, & Crises

July 6, 2023

Greedflation

Europe

Greedflation

This European survey examines (a) A significant factor behind today’s inflation in Europe is dominant corporations in uncompetitive markets taking advantage of their market power to raise prices in order to increase their profit margins; (b) A significant factor behind today’s inflation in some sectors of the European economy is dominant corporations in uncompetitive markets taking advantage of their market power to raise prices in order to increase their profit margins; (c) A significant factor behind today’s inflation in some sectors of the European economy (both competitive and concentrated) is distortions in the aggregate economy where supply does not meet demand.

Monetary Policy, Interest Rates, & Inflation

June 8, 2023

AI, Innovation and Society

Europe

AI, Innovation and Society

This European survey examines (a) If countries could impose a ban on the use of ChatGPT and similar generative AI chatbot services that is technologically effective, they would experience a measurably negative impact on national innovation; (b) Regardless of whether advances in AI spur productivity growth, they are likely to create deep challenges for society – in areas from labor markets to politics, and including disinformation, privacy, crime, and warfare – that will be difficult to anticipate, plan for, and contain.

Democracy, Government, & Public Policy

May 17, 2023

AI and Productivity Growth

Europe

AI and Productivity Growth

This European survey examines (a) Use of artificial intelligence over the next ten years will lead to a substantial increase in the growth rates of real per capita income in the US and Western Europe over the subsequent two decades; (b) Use of artificial intelligence over the next ten years will have a substantially bigger impact on the growth rates of real per capita income in the US and Western Europe over the subsequent two decades than the internet has had over the past two decades

Economic Growth, Development, & Productivity

April 27, 2023