European Economic Experts Panel

The Clark Center for Global Markets explores economists’ views on vital policy issues via our US and European Economic Experts Panels. We regularly poll over 80 economists on a range of timely and relevant topics. Panelists not only have the opportunity to respond to a poll’s statements, but an opportunity to comment and provide additional resources, if they wish. The Clark Center then shares the results with the public in a straightforward and concise format.

Please note that from September 2022, the language in our polls will use just two modifiers to refer to the size of an effect:

  • ‘Substantial’: when an effect is large enough that it would make a difference that matters for the behavior involved.
  • ‘Measurable’: when the direction of the effect is clear, but perhaps experts would differ as to whether it is substantial.
Europe

Economic Sanctions and Aid

Question A:

The economic and financial sanctions against Russia are substantially limiting its ability to wage war on Ukraine.

Question B:

In the absence of continuing flows of Western economic aid, Ukraine's wartime economy will be substantially compromised.

 
Europe

Germany’s Debt Brake

Question A:

A constitutional rule that limits the size of budget deficits that governments can run as a share of GDP is an effective way to impose discipline on a country’s public finances.

Question B:

Germany’s debt brake is a substantial constraint on vital public investment in physical/digital infrastructure and the green transition.

 
Europe

Argentina

This European survey examines (a) The fundamental cause of Argentina’s high inflation is unfunded fiscal commitments that are being financed by the central bank; (b) Even if Argentina could marshal the resources to make a full switch to using US dollars for domestic transactions, it would substantially increase the volatility of Argentine GDP 
Europe

Public Corporations

This European survey examines (a) It is best for society if the management of publicly traded corporations only considers the impact of their decisions on customers, employees, and community members to the extent that these effects feedback to affect shareholder wealth;  (b) The typical chief executive officer of a publicly traded corporation is paid more than his or her marginal contribution to the firm's value 
Europe

Women and the Labor Market

This European survey examines (a) By enabling women’s life choices about education, work and family, the contraceptive pill made a substantial contribution to closing gender gaps in the labor market for professionals; (b) Gender gaps in today’s labor market arise less from differences in educational and occupational choices than from the differential career impact of parenthood and social norms around men's and women’s roles in childrearing;  (c) The gender gap in pay would be substantially reduced if firms had fewer incentives to offer disproportionate rewards to individuals who work long and/or inflexible hours 
Europe

Responses To Market Power

This European survey examines (a) Constraints on the anti-competitive behavior of dominant firms in the digital economy can in principle be effectively implemented using the existing tools of competition policy and antitrust enforcement; (b) The effectiveness of existing antitrust regimes in constraining anti-competitive behavior is substantially limited by the inadequacy of the resources available to competition and regulatory agencies relative to the dominant firms of the digital economy;  (c) Constraints on the anti-competitive behavior of dominant firms in the digital economy would be more effectively implemented than at present with ex-ante regulation such as Europe's Digital Markets Act and other forms of public utility regulation. Details on Digital Markets Act here: https://digital-markets-act.ec.europa.eu/index_en 
Europe

Subsidizing Green Technology

This European survey examines (a) Government subsidies for investment in green technologies are justified by substantial benefits coming from reducing unpriced carbon emissions and generating positive R&D spillovers; (b) Using subsidies for green technologies instead of full carbon prices will lead to substantially more rent-seeking and hence substantially higher costs to achieve a given reduction in emissions 
Europe

AI and the Labor Market

This European survey examines (a) Use of artificial intelligence over the next ten years will have a negative impact on the earnings potential of substantial numbers of high-skilled workers in advanced countries; (b) Use of artificial intelligence over the next ten years will lead to substantially greater uncertainty about the likely returns to investment in education; (c) Use of artificial intelligence over the next ten years is likely to have a measurable impact in increasing income inequality 
Europe

AI and Market Power

This European survey examines (a) Use of artificial intelligence is likely to lead to a substantial increase in problems associated with market power in digital markets; (b) Artificial intelligence offers substantial opportunities for new entrants into digital markets that have previously been concentrated; (c) Artificial intelligence is likely to be a highly concentrated industry, dominated by a handful of players 
Europe

Policy Responses to Recent Bank Failures

This European survey examines (a) The response to recent bank failures should be to: Expand central banks’ lender of last resort facilities for banks; (b) The response to recent bank failures should be to: Substantially increase the limit on bank deposit insurance; (c) The response to recent bank failures should be to: Substantially increase bank capital requirements; (d) The response to recent bank failures should be to: Use market values of all traded assets to compute banks’ regulatory capital 

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