European Economic Experts Panel

The Clark Center for Global Markets explores economists’ views on vital policy issues via our US and European Economic Experts Panels. We regularly poll over 80 economists on a range of timely and relevant topics. Panelists not only have the opportunity to respond to a poll’s statements, but an opportunity to comment and provide additional resources, if they wish. The Clark Center then shares the results with the public in a straightforward and concise format.

Please note that from September 2022, the language in our polls will use just two modifiers to refer to the size of an effect:

‘Substantial’: when an effect is large enough that it would make a difference that matters for the behavior involved.
‘Measurable’: when the direction of the effect is clear, but perhaps experts would differ as to whether it is substantial.

Diversified Investing

Europe

Diversified Investing

In general, absent any inside information, an equity investor can expect to do better by holding a well-diversified, low-fee, passive index fund than by holding a few stocks.

Responses

18%

28%

54%

Source: European Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

March 22, 2017

Aging

Europe

Aging

Question A:

Without changes in policy, a rising share of people who are over age 65 will exert a substantial downward influence on per capita real GDP in western European countries.

Responses

10%

60%

20%

Source: European Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Question B:

In European countries where the share of those over 65 is rising, there are net social benefits to adjusting retirement ages for state-financed (including pay-as-you-go) pension systems upwards, so that revised retirement ages better reflect longer life expectancies.

Responses

10%

40%

44%

Source: European Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

February 28, 2017

City of London

Europe

City of London

This week's European Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) All else equal, there are substantial advantages to having much of Europe’s human capital and infrastructure for international financial activity clustered in a single city, as they are at present in London.

B) All else equal, Britain’s rules on hiring, firing and working hours are significantly more conducive to financial activity than those in other large European countries.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

February 7, 2017

Italy’s Banks

Europe

Italy’s Banks

This week's European IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) Setting the EU rules aside, and assuming it would take 2.5% of Italy’s GDP to recapitalize its banks, the Italian government would improve financial stability in Europe if it injected this amount of public funds into its banks.

B) If Italy were to inject public funds into its banks without imposing losses on at least some claimants, an important cost would be the effect on future incentives (economic or political) in Europe.

Business Cycles, Recessions, & Crises

December 21, 2016

Brexit

Europe

Brexit

This week's IGM European Economics Experts Panel statements:

A) Because of the Brexit vote's outcome, the UK's real per-capita income level is likely to be lower a decade from now than it would have been otherwise.

B) Because of the Brexit vote's outcome, the rest of the EU's real per-capita income level is likely to be lower a decade from now than it would have been otherwise.

Democracy, Government, & Public Policy

December 7, 2016

Trade Within Europe

Europe

Trade Within Europe

This week's IGM European Economics Experts Panel statements:

A) Freer movement of goods and services across borders within Europe has made the average western European citizen better off since the 1980s.

B) Freer movement of goods and services across borders within Europe has made many low-skilled western European citizens worse off since the 1980s.

Economic Growth, Development, & Productivity

December 7, 2016

Migration Within Europe

Europe

Migration Within Europe

This week's IGM European Economics Experts Panel statements:

A) Freer movement of people to live and work across borders within Europe has made the average western European citizen better off since the 1980s.

B) Freer movement of people to live and work across borders within Europe has made many low-skilled western European citizens worse off since the 1980s.

Jobs, Pay, & Unemployment

December 7, 2016

Local Tax Incentives

Europe

Local Tax Incentives

This week's IGM European Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) Giving tax incentives to specific firms to locate operations in a country typically generates domestic benefits that outweigh the costs to the country providing the incentives.

B) Europe as a whole benefits when European cities or countries compete with each other by giving tax incentives to firms to locate operations in their jurisdictions.

Democracy, Government, & Public Policy

December 7, 2016

Privatization in Central and Eastern Europe

Europe

Privatization in Central and Eastern Europe

This week's IGM European Economic Experts Panel statement:

On the whole, the shift from state to private ownership of many industrial assets in central and eastern European countries after communism has increased productivity in those countries.

Business, Management, & Corporate Performance

December 7, 2016

Congestion Pricing

Europe

Congestion Pricing

This week's IGM European Economic Experts Panel statement:

In general, using more congestion charges in crowded transportation networks — such as higher tolls during peak travel times in cities, and peak fees for airplane takeoff and landing slots — and using the proceeds to lower other taxes would make citizens on average better off.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

December 7, 2016