European Economic Experts Panel

The Clark Center for Global Markets explores economists’ views on vital policy issues via our US and European Economic Experts Panels. We regularly poll over 80 economists on a range of timely and relevant topics. Panelists not only have the opportunity to respond to a poll’s statements, but an opportunity to comment and provide additional resources, if they wish. The Clark Center then shares the results with the public in a straightforward and concise format.

Please note that from September 2022, the language in our polls will use just two modifiers to refer to the size of an effect:

‘Substantial’: when an effect is large enough that it would make a difference that matters for the behavior involved.
‘Measurable’: when the direction of the effect is clear, but perhaps experts would differ as to whether it is substantial.

ECB Appointments

Europe

ECB Appointments

Question A:

Selecting candidates for membership of the ECB Executive Board based primarily on nationality ahead of competence is likely to have a negative effect on the quality of monetary policy in the Eurozone.

Responses

Source: European Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Question B:

Although the central bank can never be an entirely technocratic institution, the selection process for the ECB President and members of the Executive Board is significantly worsened by intergovernmental trade-offs involving appointments to other European institutions.

Responses

Source: European Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

July 3, 2019

European Infrastructure and Chinese Firms

Europe

European Infrastructure and Chinese Firms

On bids for infrastructure projects, the average European would be better off if Europe’s governments favored European firms over Chinese firms (or firms from any other country with non-profit-related geopolitical strategies) — even if it means sometimes choosing a higher-cost bidder.

Responses

Source: European Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

June 12, 2019

Doom Loops and Europe’s Financial System

Europe

Doom Loops and Europe’s Financial System

This week’s IGM European Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) Breaking the “doom loop” — a negative spiral that can result when banks hold sovereign bonds and governments bail out banks — would increase the stability of European economies in the event of another financial crisis.

B) Regulators should try to break the doom loop by assigning positive risk weights — in calculating banks’ capital requirements — to banks’ holdings of domestic and other Eurozone sovereign bonds.

C) Breaking the doom loop would impose substantial costs on powerful political constituencies.

Business Cycles, Recessions, & Crises

May 22, 2019

Gentrification

Europe

Gentrification

When more affluent people move into an urban neighborhood, the influx can raise house prices and the value of local amenities, leading to the displacement of long-time lower-income residents – a process sometimes known as gentrification. We invited our European panel of economic experts to express their views on whether governments in Europe should be doing more to counter this phenomenon via a range of housing market policies.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

April 30, 2019

European Deposit Insurance

Europe

European Deposit Insurance

This week’s IGM European Economic Experts Panel statements:

A common European deposit insurance scheme, once fully implemented, would increase the stability of European economies in the event of another financial crisis.

A common European deposit insurance scheme, once fully implemented, would increase the likelihood of another financial crisis in Europe.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

April 9, 2019

Public Spending on the Arts

Europe

Public Spending on the Arts

This week’s IGM European Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) Overall, public spending on the arts in Europe creates benefits that exceed the deadweight loss caused by taxation to fund it.

B) Additional public spending on the arts in Europe would create incremental benefits that exceed the deadweight loss caused by taxation to fund it.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

March 20, 2019

European Champions

Europe

European Champions

This week's IGM European Economic Experts Panel Statements:

A) The average European is better off if Europe’s competition authorities let firms merge into European champions in their sectors, even it weakens competition.

B) If China and other countries use policies that create giant international firms, then the average European is better off if Europe's competition authorities let firms merge into European champions in their sectors, even it weakens competition.

Business, Management, & Corporate Performance

February 27, 2019

Quarterly Earnings

Europe

Quarterly Earnings

This week's IGM European Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) Letting publicly traded European firms report earnings annually rather than quarterly would lead their executives to place more weight on long-term issues in their investments and other decisions.

B) A switch from quarterly to annual earnings reports would, on net, benefit shareholders of European firms.

Business, Management, & Corporate Performance

February 7, 2019

Social Responsibility

Europe

Social Responsibility

This week's IGM European Economic Experts Panel Statement(s):

A) To the extent that public corporations pursue social and environmental initiatives, they tend to achieve higher risk-adjusted (private) returns than otherwise similar corporations that pursue such initiatives less.

B) To the extent that Norway’s global government pension fund makes investments for social and environmental objectives — apart from investments that would bring the highest expected risk-adjusted returns — it improves the welfare of Norwegians.

Business, Management, & Corporate Performance

January 17, 2019

EU Fiscal Rules

Europe

EU Fiscal Rules

This week's IGM European Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) The fiscal rules of the European Union should give more flexibility to member countries.

B) The Italian budget for 2019 that the European Commission rejected in October would have increased Italy’s risk of fiscal insolvency substantially.

C) If France runs a 2019 budget deficit of around 3.4% of GDP, as announced by President Macron’s government, France’s risk of fiscal insolvency will increase substantially.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

December 19, 2018