Question A:
California's insurance industry regulator issued statements shortly before and shortly after the recent wildfires started (on December 30, 2024, and January 9, 2025):
https://www.insurance.ca.gov/0400-news/0100-press-releases/2024/release065-2024.cfm
https://www.insurance.ca.gov/0400-news/0100-press-releases/2025/release005-2025.cfm
In the face of growing wildfire risks, price caps on insurance premiums have substantially reduced the viability of private property insurance markets in California.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
A mandatory one-year moratorium on insurance non-renewals and cancellations would lead to a substantial longer-term reduction in the supply of private home insurance products and the number of households that are insured against catastrophic risk in areas of California affected by recent wildfires.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
Question B Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Mark Aguiar |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
It makes sense, but I have no evidence to support the conclusions of "substantial."
|
||||
 Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Dirk Bergemann |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
The number of households insured overall (as opposed to by private insurance) seems to hang substantially on the future of the FAIR plan.
|
||||
 David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Edward Glaeser |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Here is an article that I wrote for the NYT in 2016 on this topic:
-see background information here |
||||
 Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Erik Hurst |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
This is regulatory economics 101. If the government mandates corporate actions that make something unprofitable, businesses will supply less of it.
|
||||
 Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
A lot will depend on what happens after the first year
|
||||
 Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 William Nordhaus |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Parag Pathak |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Knowing that the state may take such actions will make insurers reluctant to operate in the state.
|
||||
 José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
However, in any case, climate change is likely to cause a decrease in private insurance that homeowners can afford.
|
||||
 Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Fiona Scott Morton |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
This is especially true in the presence of price caps. Absent that, concerns about moratoriums would instead lead primarily to an increase in premiums
|
||||
 Stefanie Stantcheva |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Depends on what it is paired with - if paired with price caps, it would further reduce variability, but less likely to if this policy risk plus wildfire risk can be properly priced into risk-adjusted insurance rates.
|
||||
 Nancy Stokey |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Chad Syverson |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Not sure about this one. Should an insurance company be able to cancel your policy when your neighbor's house catches on fire. Maybe they can only cancel you if they send "Jake from State Farm" personally? That industry does spend a lot on TV advertising.
|
||||
 Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
