US

Tariffs

Question A:

Tripling existing import taxes on Chinese steel and aluminum products would lead to measurably higher employment in the US steel industry over the next five years.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question B:

Tripling the tariffs would lead to measurably higher steel and aluminum prices for American producers and measurably higher finished-good prices for American consumers.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question C:

The gains for the American economy from tripling the tariffs would measurably outweigh the losses.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question A Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
It would first depend on whether these imports are shifted to other countries. Second, if it encourages domestic production, it would depend on how automated the new production facilities would be. In sum, there would be some positive effect, but difficult to know how large.
Aguiar
Mark Aguiar
Princeton
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
China's share of US steel and aluminum imports is not large enough for the tariff to make a big difference.
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
The last round of Trump tariffs did not raise employment in protected industries.
-see background information here
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee
MIT
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Bergemann
Dirk Bergemann
Yale
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
The substitution of chinese steel can come from many sources, thus the impact of american steel employment is less than clear.
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Agree
2
Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier
Princeton
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Assuming the US products are somewhat substitutable for Chinese products, the increased demand for US products would cause US employment in this industry to rise.
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Likely to just change the source of US imports.
Einav
Liran Einav
Stanford
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Glaeser
Edward Glaeser
Harvard
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale
Strongly Disagree
9
Bio/Vote History
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Hart
Oliver Hart
Harvard
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford
Uncertain
10
Bio/Vote History
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes
Berkeley
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
Hurst
Erik Hurst
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
Putting a tariff on Chinese steel and aluminum may result in the US importing less from China and more from another country. Also, the extent to which the US increases production domestically, such production is done more with machines than labor.
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Strongly Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Disagree
4
Bio/Vote History
The U.S. does not import very much steel from China.
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Obstfeld
Maurice Obstfeld
Berkeley
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Pathak
Parag Pathak
MIT
Disagree
4
Bio/Vote History
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson
Yale
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
The tariffs will prompt technological adjustments are activity relocations whose countermanding effect on employment is difficult to predict.
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Scott Morton
Fiona Scott Morton
Yale
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro
Berkeley
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Shimer
Robert Shimer
University of Chicago
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Stantcheva
Stefanie Stantcheva
Harvard
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
Stock
James Stock
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Stokey
Nancy Stokey
University of Chicago
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Syverson
Chad Syverson
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
Lots of substitution margins around Chinese-produced steel and aluminum, of which shift to domestic employment is only one.
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Werning
Ivan Werning
MIT
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Imports of Chinese steel would fall. Imports from other countries may mitigate the rise in production in US and effects on employment may be modest. There could also be a negative effect on downstream production and employment, as with Bush steel tariffs.
-see background information here
-see background information here

Question B Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Again, the medium-term price effects would depend on whether imports are shifted to other countries and if there is production domestically, how efficient these new facilities would be.
Aguiar
Mark Aguiar
Princeton
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Effects are likely to be small.
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Hard to see how this could fail.
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee
MIT
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Bergemann
Dirk Bergemann
Yale
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Agree
2
Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier
Princeton
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
I am interpreting "producers" to mean industrial producers who use steel/aluminum as an input.
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
The usual microeconomics apply.
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Insofar as source of imports simply changes, price impact will be marginal.
Einav
Liran Einav
Stanford
Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Glaeser
Edward Glaeser
Harvard
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale
Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Strongly Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Hart
Oliver Hart
Harvard
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Hurst
Erik Hurst
Chicago Booth
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Strongly Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Obstfeld
Maurice Obstfeld
Berkeley
Disagree
4
Bio/Vote History
We don't import that much Chinese steel and would substitute to other sources.
Pathak
Parag Pathak
MIT
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson
Yale
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Strongly Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Scott Morton
Fiona Scott Morton
Yale
Strongly Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
tariffs are a form of taxes on the imported good.
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro
Berkeley
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
Shimer
Robert Shimer
University of Chicago
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Stantcheva
Stefanie Stantcheva
Harvard
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Stock
James Stock
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Stokey
Nancy Stokey
University of Chicago
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Syverson
Chad Syverson
Chicago Booth
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Size depends on available substitution margins, but hard to imagine how it would ever reduce finished-goods prices.
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Werning
Ivan Werning
MIT
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Based on past experience, the tariffs will likely raise the after tariff price to the US one for one and passed on to downstream input users and consumers, as happened with the Bush steel tariffs and more recently with Trump's tariffs on China.
-see background information here
-see background information here

Question C Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Aguiar
Mark Aguiar
Princeton
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Disagree
3
Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Strongly Disagree
9
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Strongly Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
This is not the sector to protect. It's a tiny number of jobs, large a moribund set of companies (certainly US steel), and a crucial input into many other domestic sectors. Not all tariffs are self-destructive, but this one is.
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee
MIT
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
I don't know exactly gains for the American economy means. How do we weigh widespread losses with gains for a small group of workers?
Bergemann
Dirk Bergemann
Yale
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Disagree
2
Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier
Princeton
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Disagree
3
Bio/Vote History
Depends on the relative efficiency of US production, what's done with the tariff revenues, and China's counter tariffs. I speculate a negative overall impact on the US economy. It's hard to incorporate the national-security implications for the US economy.
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Einav
Liran Einav
Stanford
Disagree
1
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Glaeser
Edward Glaeser
Harvard
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale
Strongly Disagree
10
Bio/Vote History
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
CO2 intensity not v different but a bit dated: This is more favorable to US about CO2 intensity (but see source):
-see background information here
-see background information here
Hart
Oliver Hart
Harvard
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Disagree
3
Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford
Uncertain
10
Bio/Vote History
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes
Berkeley
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Hurst
Erik Hurst
Chicago Booth
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Strongly Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Strongly Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Not equity weighted for sure, but distribution of impacts less clear.
Obstfeld
Maurice Obstfeld
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Pathak
Parag Pathak
MIT
Disagree
3
Bio/Vote History
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson
Yale
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Tariffs are an inefficient employment program.
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Strongly Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Scott Morton
Fiona Scott Morton
Yale
Disagree
4
Bio/Vote History
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro
Berkeley
Strongly Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Shimer
Robert Shimer
University of Chicago
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Stantcheva
Stefanie Stantcheva
Harvard
Disagree
4
Bio/Vote History
Stock
James Stock
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Stokey
Nancy Stokey
University of Chicago
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Tariffs have direct effects, but they are also bargaining chips. It is hard to assess how those factors add up.
Syverson
Chad Syverson
Chicago Booth
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
I believe there are agglomerative forces in manufacturing, but these sectors don't seem the place for large ones.
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Werning
Ivan Werning
MIT
Strongly Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Protectionism via tariffs creates well-understood aggregate losses in efficiency. This is so even if China "unfairly" subsidizes its steel. Political motivations aside, actual distributional impacts are modest, ill targeted, and better handled with other more direct tax tools.
-see background information here
-see background information here