On Global Markets

Over the last few months, On Global Markets has repeatedly warned about the real economic costs of elevated levels of economic policy uncertainty. But, it seems that greater certainty on the shape of Donald Trump’s trade policy has brought its own challenges. The President’s so-called ‘Liberation Day’ reciprocal tariffs went a lot further than just […] 

Driving safely requires an accurate speedometer. Knowing when to press on the brakes and when to push down on the accelerator is much trickier if a driver is not really sure exactly how quickly they are currently travelling. Much the same can be said when it comes to economic policymaking; reliable, timely and reasonably accurate […] 

When it comes to American economic policy, the word of the year may well end up being ‘tariff’. So far President Trump’s programme of on-again, off-again tariffs and threatened protectionist measures have dominated news coverage and driven moves in asset markets. But if ‘tariff’ has a contender it will likely be ‘uncertainty’. Levels of policy […] 

The idea of “infrastructure week” became a reasonably popular joke amongst journalists and commentators during President Trump’s first term. As CNN explained at the time, the idea came from the administration’s frequent announcements that in a given week, the focus would be on infrastructure only for it to then get blown off course by some […] 

The tariff roller coaster is going and taking even wilder turns. In the last week the United States imposed the previously delayed by one month promised 25% tariffs on trade with Mexico and Canada on March 4th. On March 5th, following intense lobbying by the big automakers, the automotive sector secured a further one-month delay. […] 

“This can’t possibly be a serious question” is how Andrew Lo of MIT Sloan responded to a poll posed to the Clark Center’s Finance Expert Panel last week. Matteo Maggiori of Stanford GSB went a little further, noting, “This would strike me as one of the worst policy ideas ever”. It is then fair to […] 

German voters go to the polls this week following the collapse of the, sometimes chaotic, three-way coalition which has run the Federal government since late 2021. There is plenty for the electorate to consider. The economy is stuck in its first two-year recession since the early 2000s. More broadly, economic performance has been miserable since […] 

Whilst he may have died almost a century and a half ago, 2025 has seen a sudden revival of interest in William Stanley Jevons.  Jevons, born way back in 1835, was one of the great economists of the nineteenth century. And while he may not have quite the enduring fame of some of his contemporaries, […] 

Covering a Trump administration can be tricky at times, especially for those writing a weekly piece. Your columnist began writing this week’s note on Friday. In the 72 or so hours that followed the President: said he would announce ‘reciprocal tariffs’ in the coming week, announced 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports would be […] 

Europe’s economy is stuck in a rut. The latest figures, released this week, show Eurozone GDP flat in the fourth quarter and growth across the European Union as a whole up by just 0.1%. Nothing captures the gloom quite as well as Eurostat, the official statistics body, describing the Eurozone’s poor performance with the headline […]