Question A:
Use of artificial intelligence over the next ten years will lead to a substantial increase in the growth rates of real per capita income in the US and Western Europe over the subsequent two decades.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
Use of artificial intelligence over the next ten years will have a substantially bigger impact on the growth rates of real per capita income in the US and Western Europe over the subsequent two decades than the internet has had over the past two decades.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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 Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Though breakthroughs in large language models are impressive and appear to be capable of increasing human productivity, there is no evidence that they can be effectively employed in production. Past applications have often disappointed. Current direction of AI is also distorted.
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 Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It may accelerate scientific breakthroughs, but it may also spur social chaos. Whether the productive outpaces the destructive is uncertain.
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 Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Between 2033 and 2053? That seems about right, given the adaptation lag historically to earlier general purpose technologies.
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 Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I am confident that this is uncertain. AI substitutes for certain jobs and not for others, so a complex, General Equilibrium analysis is required. I have not so far seen any analysis that I would find convincing.
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 Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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AI should improve economic growth but adoption of new tech will be slow because people do not like change, loss of status, etc.
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 Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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AI will be helpful in many areas. But it will be fighting against the headwinds of many types of regulation as well as learning how to use it best. Net effect in next ten years is promising, but uncertain.
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 Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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AI will most likely lead ultimately to a very substantial increase in growth rates----but that may take longer than 10 years.
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 William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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However (i) substantial effect on income inequality is probable and (ii) measurement of actual effect on growth will depend on improvements on treatment of "free" goods and quality changes..
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 Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Too early to know
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 Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 James Stock |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Seems unlikely but who knows?
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 Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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...that or take over the world :)
AI is a powerful tool that will help generate additional innovations. It will change many aspects of work.
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Question B Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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There is some uncertainty here as well. But in its current direction AI is an "inappropriate technology" for many emerging economies and may slow down their growth, as it seeks to substitutes capital and programming skills for middle and low skills.
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Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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AI is potentially an even bigger deal than the Internet for industrialized countries (though not for the developing world). Whether this potential will generate faster growth rates is, in my mind, uncertain given the vast potential for ancillary harms.
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Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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AI will directly improve measured growth because it will economize on use of inputs. Impact of internet (e.g. Facebook, Google) is less clear and more difficult to measure.
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Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Same explanation as before
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William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The contribution will be large but the comparison is not easy to make at this point.
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José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Too early to know
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Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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James Stock |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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If Internet plus smart phone did not move the needle why should we expect this to do so?
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Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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