Finance Panel

The Clark Center for Global Markets explores finance professors’ views on vital policy issues via our Finance Panel.  We regularly poll over 40 individuals on a range of timely and relevant topics.  Panelists not only have the opportunity to respond to a poll’s statements, but an opportunity to comment and provide additional resources, if they wish. The Clark Center then shares the results with the public in a straightforward and concise format.

Please note that from September 2022, the language in our polls will use just two modifiers to refer to the size of an effect:

  • ‘Substantial’: when an effect is large enough that it would make a difference that matters for the behavior involved.
  • ‘Measurable’: when the direction of the effect is clear, but perhaps experts would differ as to whether it is substantial.
Finance

New Fed Chair

Question A:

If the Federal Reserve under Kevin Warsh were to reduce its balance sheet by at least $1 trillion over the next 12 months, it would measurably improve the functioning of financial markets over his four-year appointed term as chair.

Question B:

If the Federal Reserve under Kevin Warsh were to provide substantially less forward guidance and communication than it has done in the recent past, it would measurably improve the functioning of financial markets over his four-year appointed term as chair.

 
Finance

SpaceX IPO

Question A:

The large demand of passive investors for shares in SpaceX in the days after the IPO will cause substantial overvaluation of the stock.

Question B:

Rebalancing of investors' portfolios to make room for SpaceX will cause measurable price pressure on other large growth or technology stocks in the days after the IPO.

 
Finance

Prediction Markets

This Finance survey examines (a) Prediction markets provide substantially more accurate forecasts of key macro-financial variables than traditional sources such as surveys of professional forecasters; (b) Retail market participants would be measurably better off if sports contracts on prediction markets were regulated more like gambling than like financial derivatives 
Finance

Initial Public Offerings and Index Inclusion

This Finance survey examines: Nasdaq has been consulting on inclusion of the largest companies in its indexes: https://indexes.nasdaqomx.com/docs/NDX_Consultation-February_2026.pdf; (a) Changing the rules for index inclusion to allow fast-track entry by extremely large IPOs (including waiving the free float requirement) is consistent with the objectives of passive index-based investing; (b) Changing the rules for index inclusion to allow fast-track entry by extremely large IPOs (including waiving the free float requirement) will make index fund investors measurably better off 
Finance

Private Credit Funds

This Finance survey examines: Some major private credit funds - including those offered by BlackRock, Cliffwater and Morgan Stanley - have maintained their redemption limits, not fully filling all investor requests; (a) The enforcement of restrictions on withdrawals from private credit funds predicts that the funds will substantially underperform indices of liquid high-yield corporate bonds over the next 18 months; (b) Assets in the private credit funds that are restricting withdrawals are substantially overvalued relative to their true market value 
Finance

Housing Affordability

This Finance survey examines (a) Having the government-sponsored housing agencies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac buy $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities would reduce mortgage rates by more than 25 basis points; (b) Having the government-sponsored housing agencies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac buy $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities would measurably improve the affordability of home ownership; (c) Restrictions on large institutional investors buying single-family homes would measurably improve the affordability of home ownership 
Finance

Trump Accounts

The proposed Trump Accounts (https://trumpaccounts.gov/) will provide an initial savings deposit of $1,000 from the US Treasury to eligible children born between 2025 and 2028, and allow up to $5,000 a year in additional private contributions; (a) The proposed Trump Accounts will substantially improve long-term wealth accumulation; (b) The proposed Trump Accounts will substantially reduce income inequality among future generations (c) The proposed Trump Accounts will substantially increase support for free-market capitalism over socialism