Question A:
Allowing US-based employers to hire many more immigrants with advanced degrees in science or engineering would lower (at least temporarily) the premium earned by current American workers with similar degrees.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
10%
0%
0%
2%
17%
64%
7%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
0%
4%
16%
70%
10%
Question B:
Allowing US-based employers to hire many more immigrants with advanced degrees in science or engineering would raise per capita income in the US over time.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
10%
0%
0%
0%
5%
50%
36%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
0%
0%
6%
50%
44%
Question A Participant Responses
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Labor demand curves are generally downward sloping
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 Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Highly skilled researchers create positive spillovers and make the overall environment more productive, which can boost other skilled worker
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 Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Two mechanisms- 2nd is to increase demand for the complementary workers.
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 David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The short-run story is supply-versus-demand. In the long run, high-skill immigration could perhaps increase demand for high-skill workers,
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 Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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probably not by much given the magnitude of the new flow vs size of existing stock but directionally, yes
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 Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Robert Hall |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This seems very likely. The immigrants are chiefly substitutes for the US scientists. However, some might be complements, offsetting this.
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 Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Scientists could be complements or substitutes
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 Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Any effect would be tiny at any politically feasible level of such immigration.
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 Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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More immigrants exert downward pressure, but create more jobs that create upward pressure.
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 Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
 Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 William Nordhaus |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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One would expect a temporary decrease in the premium, but it is not obvious that the effect would be significant or long-lasting.
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 José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Obvious effects by shifting supply; however, this will also affect where production takes place, so demand shifts as well
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 Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Quarterly question aimed at weeding out respondents who are asleep or don't believe in supply and demand. Or course magnitudes unknown.
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 Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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"Temporary" is key. Hard to see anything else in the short run. But long run effects could be positive even for these workers.
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Question B Participant Responses
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Much U.S. wealth comes from innovation, and foreign-born STEM workers are a huge contributor to that efffort
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Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Labor of this type is a key factor input that is apparently not in plentiful supply. More of it would likely raise per-capita GDP.
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Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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see under 'History, American'
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Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Robert Hall |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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A simple free trade argument suggest that the U.S. would gain overall. The problem is that there may be losers as well as winners.
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Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Statement requires certain complementarities on which evidence is so far from strong & precise that certainty would be silly.
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Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Complementarities with other factors, including labor, imply that they would see demand increase.
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Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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More highly skilled immigrants here, more jobs here, more income here, generate more jobs in services and more innovation.
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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William Nordhaus |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The ability to bring the best and the brightest from throughout the world to our economy is a great resource.
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José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Disclosure: I benefited from a policy that allowed Universities to hire foreign nationals with advanced degrees to their faculty.
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Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Most other workers are complements to those with advanced degrees, hence this will raise the demand for their skills
|
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Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Clearly high skill labor increases economic growth though not equally.
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Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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