Clark Center Forum

This installment of the FTxBooth US Macroeconomists Survey discusses the potential effects of President Trump’s economic policies as well as the consequences of federal data gathering and management. The summary results are below and you can read the Financial Times article here, subscription required. View the results of this survey>> For social media: Please use […] 

The idea of “infrastructure week” became a reasonably popular joke amongst journalists and commentators during President Trump’s first term. As CNN explained at the time, the idea came from the administration’s frequent announcements that in a given week, the focus would be on infrastructure only for it to then get blown off course by some […] 

This Finance survey examines: If the White House exerts more direct influence over the decisions of the financial regulatory agencies, that would substantially enhance financial stability 

This US survey examines (a) Matching US import tariffs to the tariffs, value-added taxes and non-tariff barriers imposed on US goods by other countries would substantially reduce the US trade deficit; (b) The threat of retaliation against the imposition of higher tariffs on a country’s exports substantially lowers the probability of a trade war; (c) In the event that the threat of retaliation does not deter the imposition of tariffs, the economies of countries subject to higher tariffs on their exports would be measurably better off by responding with targeted tariffs on imports from the first mover 

This European survey examines (a) Matching US import tariffs to the tariffs, value-added taxes and non-tariff barriers imposed on US goods by other countries would substantially reduce the US trade deficit; (b) The threat of retaliation against the imposition of higher tariffs on a country’s exports substantially lowers the probability of a trade war; (c) In the event that the threat of retaliation does not deter the imposition of tariffs, the economies of countries subject to higher tariffs on their exports would be measurably better off by responding with targeted tariffs on imports from the first mover 

The tariff roller coaster is going and taking even wilder turns. In the last week the United States imposed the previously delayed by one month promised 25% tariffs on trade with Mexico and Canada on March 4th. On March 5th, following intense lobbying by the big automakers, the automotive sector secured a further one-month delay. […] 

“This can’t possibly be a serious question” is how Andrew Lo of MIT Sloan responded to a poll posed to the Clark Center’s Finance Expert Panel last week. Matteo Maggiori of Stanford GSB went a little further, noting, “This would strike me as one of the worst policy ideas ever”. It is then fair to […] 

German voters go to the polls this week following the collapse of the, sometimes chaotic, three-way coalition which has run the Federal government since late 2021. There is plenty for the electorate to consider. The economy is stuck in its first two-year recession since the early 2000s. More broadly, economic performance has been miserable since […] 

This European survey examines (a) The wave of immigration to Germany after 2015 (and up to the Russian invasion of Ukraine) has been a net positive for the country's economy; (b) Immigration to EU countries has been a net positive for government finances, adding substantially more in tax revenues than the increased costs associated with integration of immigrants; (c) Given Europe's low and falling fertility rates (from seven million births per year in 1960 to four million today), maintaining its position as a world economic power will require increased immigration over the medium term

  

This Finance survey examines (a) Central banks' international reserves portfolios would have substantially lower risk if they were to hold a substantial portion of their reserves in crypto assets;
(b) The US economy would benefit substantially by borrowing money to form a strategic crypto asset reserve fund